Heavy cargo: almost 7 thousand carriers in Russia on the verge of bankruptcy
Transport companies are leaving the market due to rising costs and a sharp decline in the profitability of delivery, industry participants told Izvestia. Thus, according to relevant associations, almost 7 thousand legal entities are currently in liquidation or bankruptcy. This situation is being recorded for the first time in the last 17 years, experts say. Moreover, a number of them predict the departure of at least another 7% of firms in 2026. The authorities are offering businesses a tax deferral and are already discussing measures to mitigate lease payments, stimulate fleet renewal and develop digital services. About how the shortage of carriers can affect prices and the logistics situation, see the Izvestia article.
Why are freight companies closing down
Since the end of October, there has been a shortage of carriers in Russia, the specialized association Avtogruzex and the PEC company told Izvestia. According to Rusprofile, 458.2 thousand legal entities are registered in the Russian Federation in the category of "Truck transport activities and transportation services," of which about 6.7 thousand are in the process of liquidation or bankruptcy.
Experts believe that the reasons for this situation include an increase in the cost of transportation and a decrease in the profitability of deliveries. In particular, according to Mikhail Ustyuzhanin, the founder of Leader Trans, transportation tariffs fell by almost a third year-on-year back in February 2025.
"In May 2025, the average rate was 66 rubles per 1 km with VAT, while the costs reached 82 rubles," he said. — And the cost of transportation for the first half of 2025 increased by 15% due to higher prices for fuel, maintenance of equipment and salaries of drivers.
The price of diesel fuel has increased by 15-20% in practice, says Mikhail Ustyuzhanin. Previously, fuel companies provided discounts to large and medium-sized carriers that could reach up to 23%, but now the preferential terms have been canceled, added Vadim Filatov, co-owner and deputy director of the PEC, president of the Avtogruzex Association.
Against this background, it is becoming increasingly difficult for carriers to pay leasing fees, and since the end of 2024, there has been a massive return of equipment, Mikhail Ustyuzhanin notes.
— There has not been such a situation in the last 17 years. The volume of seized equipment is breaking records and has been increasing by 20% every month since June 2025," he says.
What awaits the trucking industry
The situation is also influenced by the growth of their own fleets of retail chains and marketplaces that deliver shipments and shipments from suppliers on their own. By the end of the year, the market may face a shortage of liquidity. Banks have already tightened their credit policies, and this trend is likely to continue, Mikhail Ustyuzhanin believes.
According to his forecasts, the shortage of carriers will continue to worsen next year. It will be especially difficult for companies with large debts to lessors to fulfill their obligations, even with smooth market growth. The departure of companies may also be affected by an increase in the cost of delivery.
Alexander Zaretsky, First Deputy General Director of Baikal-Service TK, suggested that additional pressure will be exerted by the growth of scrap collection, which will increase by another 10% from January 1, 2026, to almost 3 million rubles for a mainline tractor with a load capacity of up to 20 tons.
"With an annual rate indexation of 10-20% by 2030, the purchase of cars from foreign manufacturers will become economically unprofitable for many carriers, which will complicate the renewal of fleets and may lead to a greater reduction in carrying capacity," he stressed.
In addition, starting from January 1, 2026, Russian carriers will no longer be able to operate on the patent taxation system, Vadim Filatov recalled. Along with the mandatory electronic bill of lading from September 1, 2026 and the introduction of the register of freight forwarders, this will increase the transparency of the industry, limiting abuse by unscrupulous players — and there are more than 60% of them on the market, according to Avtogruzex. However, at the same time, the financial burden on thousands of transport companies will also increase, Vadim Filatov notes. Against this background, at least 7% of them may leave the market, predicts Ruslan Safin, financial director of the Orda transport company.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Industry and Trade with a request to comment on the current situation. Earlier, the Ministry of Transport stated that the issue of stabilization of the situation is under control. They acknowledged that freight transportation, like other sectors of the economy, faced a sharp increase in operating costs and the consequences of an increase in the key rate, which increased leasing payments. In addition, the costs of the means of production are also increasing.
"The Russian Ministry of Transport monitors the state of the industry in cooperation with relevant associations, as well as separate monitoring of backbone organizations of motor transport," the department noted. — As an effective support measure, carriers have the right to use the mechanism for deferring (installment) payment of mandatory tax payments provided for in Article 64 of the Tax Code. There have already been cases of such applications."
Carriers also have the opportunity to purchase domestic equipment within the framework of the state program "Industrial Development and increasing its competitiveness." For these purposes, the federal budget provides 27 billion rubles annually in the period from 2025 to 2027. In addition, the Ministry of Transport, together with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, launched a mechanism for paying a reduced recycling rate for a number of vehicles.
How to solve the problem of scarcity
The shortage of carriers, which has been observed since the end of October, was the result of accumulated problems, said Alexey Ivanov, owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealership network.
"The main reason is that the carriers are simply not pulling financially," he said. — The average cost is now about 85-86 rubles per kilometer, and tariffs have recovered only to 74.7 rubles. Under such conditions, the massive return of equipment to lessors is breaking records. The European brands are gone, and with them the previous investment model, when the carrier could recoup its investments in a few years through the sale of used equipment.
The situation on the road transport market reflects the process of natural renewal of the industry, says Irina Sozdatel, Vice President of the Association of Exporters and Importers. The market is currently undergoing a restructuring phase, and despite the temporary difficulties, the prerequisites for stabilization and growth are already visible.
"Increased transparency, the introduction of an electronic bill of lading and the transition to new tax regimes will not only be a challenge, but also an incentive to increase efficiency," the expert emphasized. — Companies that will be able to adapt to the changed conditions will receive a more stable business model and will be able to strengthen their positions.
According to her, many carriers are now switching to modern operating schemes: long-term contracts, rental of fleets, digitalization of logistics. This helps reduce risks and ensures stable returns even with changing costs.
"Support from the government and banks also plays an important role," she said. — Measures are being discussed to mitigate lease payments, stimulate the renewal of fleets and the development of digital services. All this will make it easier for carriers to go through the transition period and increase profitability.
The situation requires a comprehensive solution, experts noted. Support measures are needed to upgrade the fleet, such as preferential leasing programs or subsidized interest rates.
— It is also worth considering a temporary mitigation of the growth of scrap collection for commercial vehicles or the provision of installments for its payment, — said Alexey Ivanov. — Thirdly, support is needed in the transition to electronic document management - training, subsidizing software purchases.
According to Irina Sozdatel, equipment is being actively updated in the field of cargo transportation, new partnership models are being formed between carriers and shippers, and the level of process efficiency is increasing. Therefore, in her opinion, the industry has a chance to recover.
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