In the infinite count: the United States risks experiencing a new shutdown in February

The budget wars in the United States are coming to an end. The Senate has approved a bill on government financing that could put an end to the record shutdown that has been going on since October 1. Because of this, more than 10,000 flights were canceled in the United States, and Donald Trump, whose ratings continue to decline, did not dare to launch an operation in Venezuela, experts say. At the same time, if the Democrats and Republicans do not find a compromise on subsidizing health insurance, then the United States may face another shutdown in February. About how the Democrats managed to achieve a drop in Trump's ratings and what damage this story caused to Americans — in the Izvestia article.

Is the United States waiting for another shutdown

The U.S. Senate has approved a bill to fund the government. Democrats and Republicans were able to find a compromise, as a result of which the document was supported by 60 senators. After that, the document will be approved in the House of Representatives, and then handed over to Donald Trump for signature. "It looks like we are nearing the end of the shutdown. You will find out about it very soon," the US president said.

The adoption of the budget will make it possible to complete the suspension, which began on October 1 and has been going on for the 40th day. On the night of November 5, the record for the duration of the shutdown was broken — in 2018 it lasted 35 days. For more than a month, Republicans and Democrats could not agree on the terms of financing the government, which is why its work was suspended. Both sides consistently blamed each other, trying to lower the opponents' ratings.

This time, the health sector turned out to be a stumbling block in the budget discussion — the parties disagreed on the issue of government spending on health insurance. Democrats demanded to allocate $350 billion for the extension of subsidies to the Obamacare program, which expires at the end of this year. They also wanted to cancel the $1 trillion cut in spending on the federal Medicaid program, which pays for medical expenses for the poor, the disabled and other socially vulnerable people. Republicans opposed these conditions.

As a result, we can talk about a draw between the two parties, although due to the fact that the Democrats agreed to adopt the budget only until January 30, the United States risks experiencing a new shutdown in February, American scientist Malek Dudakov told Izvestia. This will happen if the parties fail to reach an agreement on all key financing issues, including health insurance, within two months.

— In exchange for their votes, the Democrats received a promise from the Republicans to return to service all officials who were fired during the shutdown and hold a separate vote on health insurance subsidies. This was the main stumbling block, and we should not expect any progress in this area in the near future, which is why America may face a new shutdown," the political scientist believes.

On the one hand, the approval of the bill by some members of the Democratic Party showed that its unity had disintegrated, CNN writes. This may play into the hands of Trump, who was still able to get their votes. On the other hand, by the 40th day of the shutdown, the Democrats had achieved their main goals, so the advantage was rather on their side, Malek Dudakov believes.

First, they were able to lower Donald Trump's ratings. According to a YouGov study, his job approval rating has dropped to 18%, which is 3 percentage points lower than "at any point in his first term" from 2017 to 2021. According to an Emerson College poll, the position of the head of the White House has fallen to 41%, while supporters of the Democratic Party show noticeably greater electoral enthusiasm before the 2026 midterm elections.

Secondly, the Democrats were able to confidently win three major local elections. Among the main successes is the election of 34—year-old Zoran Mamdani as mayor of New York and two Democratic women as governors in Virginia and New Jersey.

Thus, at the moment, we should expect a temporary respite, after which a new "budget battle" may occur in the winter, the expert concludes. Indeed, another shutdown is possible with the onset of February, Yegor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. At the same time, he is sure that he will definitely not break the current record, which is the longest in the history of the United States.

At the same time, in order to end the current shutdown, the Republican senators made a minimal symbolic concession, in practice not meeting the demands of the Democrats, Toropov notes.

"In December, a separate vote will be held on the issue of extending medical insurance subsidies, which will require the votes of 13 Republicans who will not side with the Democrats in such numbers," the expert says.

Consequences of the government shutdown in the United States

Since the beginning of October, thousands of American officials have gone on unpaid leave and lost their salaries due to the partial government shutdown. For example, as the media reported, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services was supposed to send 41% of its employees on forced leave.

The worst of all are air traffic controllers, law enforcement officers and 2 million military personnel who will have to work for free. Nevertheless, according to the law passed in 2019, civil servants are retroactively paid for all the days of the shutdown. That is, full—time employees of federal government agencies will receive their salaries, but contract, freelance, and outsourced employees will not.

The US government shutdown is costing the country's GDP $15 billion a week, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, warned earlier. According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, the decline in GDP is due to lower salaries of federal employees who have been sent on unpaid leave, delays in government purchases of goods and services, and, as a result, lower final demand.

The effects of the shutdown on the economy and ordinary Americans can be seen most clearly in the aviation sphere. The other day, more than 10,000 flights were canceled and delayed in the United States, according to data from the online service FlightAware. Earlier, the White House announced its intention to reduce the number of flights by 10% amid the ongoing shutdown. During the month, small businesses and individuals could face loan repayment problems. One of the unpleasant consequences of the shutdown for citizens is the closure of national parks or the unavailability of basic services on their territory.

The partial suspension of the government's work has also affected US foreign policy. Thus, the shutdown affected not only the States themselves, but also their European bases, where the authorities stopped paying salaries to local workers. According to the Associated Press, we are talking about thousands of employees, including in Italy and Portugal. Because of this, some European countries were forced to maintain American bases with their own money. According to Axios, citing sources in the State Department, for the same reason, the supply of American weapons to NATO allies in Ukraine has been suspended: Denmark, Croatia and Poland. These include AMRAAM missiles, Aegis and HIMARS combat systems.

Finally, the shutdown could have influenced Trump's final decision to end the escalation around Venezuela, Malek Dudakov believes. Earlier, the US president announced his readiness to launch a ground operation against the Latin American state to combat drug cartels.

— The operation did not happen largely due to the fact that there simply was no money to finance it. Now, perhaps the train has left, and this operation will not happen. We'll see. Let's not get ahead of ourselves," the political scientist noted.

However, if the White House does decide to launch a military invasion of Venezuela, the US army risks getting bogged down due to guerrilla resistance, which in any case will lead to huge losses for Washington.