Resistance is everywhere: The US risks getting bogged down in Venezuela
Latin America froze in anticipation of a new military conflict. Donald Trump announced the imminent start of a ground operation against drug cartels in Venezuela, and the head of the republic, Nicolas Maduro, called on workers to stage an insurgent strike. In recent months, the United States has targeted Venezuelan ships that could carry prohibited substances. At the same time, the real purpose of a possible operation is Trump's desire to regain control of Caracas and oust Maduro, experts say. In their opinion, if the president of the United States is not bluffing, then American troops risk getting bogged down in Venezuela for a long time because of the powerful guerrilla resistance.
Possible ground operation options
Donald Trump has announced the imminent start of a ground operation by the US armed forces against drug cartels in Venezuela. The president instructed the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, to inform Congress about this, Bloomberg writes. "The land will be next," the agency quoted Trump as saying. In response, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro called for a general, insurrectionary and revolutionary strike if the country's sovereignty is violated. He added that "the biggest shield of the nation is the working class."
Earlier, the White House threatened to use all possible means to combat drug cartels, which, according to the US leadership, are engaged in the production of prohibited substances and their transit through their country. In August of this year, the United States began deploying its warships, equipment, and soldiers to the Caribbean. According to media reports, 10 F-35B Lightning II fighters, six AV-8B Harrier fighters, 12 MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor planes, three MQ-9 Reaper attack drones and 13 helicopters are stationed at the American base in Puerto Rico. Anti-submarine patrol planes, transport planes and air tankers were also stationed there.
At the same time, Nicolas Maduro announced the general mobilization of the Bolivarian National Militia. In September, Washington began launching missile strikes against Venezuelan naval vessels. The last one occurred on October 24, as a result of which a boat with six "narco-terrorists" was destroyed, which, according to Pete Hegseth, was transporting a large shipment of prohibited substances. Earlier, Venezuelan air defense systems also detected at least five US combat aircraft in the air near the coast of the state.
Over the past few months, the media has continued to speculate on the scale of a military operation, if it begins. Various options were discussed: from a massive drone attack on drug cartels to a full—scale ground operation with the seizure of key strategic facilities - airports and seaports. Nicolas Maduro, it seems, is primarily preparing for a massive air attack by the Air Force. He recently announced that his army has more than 5,000 Igla-S man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and is ready to deploy MANPADS operators throughout the country for protection.
However, if Trump is pursuing the goal of completely changing the regime in Venezuela, air attacks alone will not be enough, says Andrei Pyatakov, a leading researcher at the ILA RAS. Recall: On September 17, Maduro said that the United States was threatening Venezuela with war in the hope of seizing its natural resources and installing a puppet government.
— A massive air attack will destroy Venezuela's infrastructure, but it will not lead to the overthrow of the government. Then it will be necessary to conduct a ground operation, which will face serious guerrilla resistance. In this case, the conflict may drag on indefinitely," Pyatakov told Izvestia.
The Venezuelan army does have a large number of weapons, but it is still unknown what condition they are in, Viktor Kheifets, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, reminded Izvestia. Moreover, Caracas had no combat experience for a long time.
In addition, after the invasion, Venezuela may be supported by some countries in the person of Cuba and Colombia. It is also important that the US aggression will cause "a sharp rejection from the entire Latin American community, after which it will be difficult to establish constructive ties that Trump seems to have begun to develop," Andrei Pyatakov believes.
However, a number of experts believe that conducting any ground operations does not fit into the logic of the "Trumpian style," so such statements by the US president are nothing more than bravado.
— He [Trump] always speaks very fluently: they say we can do anything. There was an attempted invasion by opposition forces supported by the Americans in 2019. It didn't work out. If it didn't work out like this, then I don't think Trump will take the risk when something might not work," Fyodor Lukyanov, scientific director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, told Izvestia.
Donald Trump is a politician who is primarily interested in agreements and practical results, who does not want to participate in military operations requiring the deployment of American troops, believes Venezuelan political analyst Carmen Geraldine Arteaga Mora.
— The military initiatives undertaken since he came to power have been characterized as punctual and "surgical", excluding military intervention. It would seem illogical that the situation in Venezuela would be different," the expert told Izvestia.
All of Trump's threats to conduct an operation are aimed precisely at intimidating Caracas and putting pressure on it, rather than warning about a real invasion in advance, says Viktor Kheifets. And although the likelihood of US missile strikes on Venezuela has increased significantly recently, it is unlikely that Trump will commit to a full-scale deployment of troops.
— Let's remember how he slightly bombed Iran and said that he had defeated everyone, and Iran's nuclear program had been destroyed. Tehran did not agree with this. It could be the same with Venezuela," the expert added.
According to him, the United States simply does not have enough forces to block all Venezuelan military bases and strategic facilities, so we can only talk about targeted strikes.
The purpose of the US operation against Venezuela
The official reason for the escalation is the fight against drug trafficking. "I don't think we necessarily need a declaration of war. I think we're just going to kill people who bring drugs into our country," Trump told reporters.
At the same time, the Latin American state is confident that the true goal is to overthrow the power of Nicolas Maduro.
"This is an attempt to carry out an operation that has already failed, namely to overthrow the legitimate and constitutional president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro Moros, in order to establish a puppet regime and turn our country into a colony," said Venezuela's permanent representative to the UN, Samuel Moncada.
Thus, it seems that the fight against cartels is just an excuse to put pressure on Caracas. Venezuela plays a minimal role in Latin American drug trafficking, the bill goes to some percentages, says Andrey Pyatakov. Indeed, according to the relevant UN office, 87% of drugs produced in Colombia are sent to the United States and Europe via the Pacific Ocean, bypassing Venezuela. 8% are exported to the United States from the Caribbean coast by Colombia itself, and only 5% pass through the territory of the Bolivarian Republic.
Trump's real goal is to restore US influence in Venezuela, because since the end of the 20th century they have lost control over a country with a large reserve of resources, Fyodor Lukyanov notes. According to 2020 data, Venezuela had 18% of the world's total oil reserves, with Saudi Arabia in second place with 17%. In addition, Caracas ranks fourth in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and second in terms of gold, in addition to other important natural resources such as iron, coal, diamonds, and bauxite.
Moreover, with the support of Caracas, Washington expects to influence the entire Bolivarian Alliance through it, including Cuba and Nicaragua, Andrei Pyatakov believes.
"They assume that if something changes in Venezuela, it will change in Cuba, and this is a very long—standing dream and goal of the United States," the expert says.
Finally, Trump's desire to get rid of Venezuela's leader Maduro, whose regime he personally dislikes, can be considered part of this strategy, Viktor Kheifets notes. An indirect confirmation of this is that the White House has declared the Venezuelan president the leader of the "Cartel of the Suns" and promised a reward of $50 million for his capture. A number of foreign experts claim that such an organization does not actually exist, however, they do not deny that there may be agreements between the political elite of Venezuela and cartels from Colombia, according to which the former receive kickbacks, covering the passage of drugs through their territory for further export to other countries.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
