Royal Raft: Why is Britain trying to oust Russia from the Western Balkans

The British authorities have gathered delegations from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, unrecognized Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro to discuss the fight against "Russian influence" and migration policy. The United Kingdom has consistently expanded its presence in the Western Balkans: the volume of trade with the States of the region has increased fourfold in five years, and the military presence has increased. The main efforts of the British intelligence services are directed at Serbia, however, analysts believe that Belgrade has a chance to withstand the pressure. London is also trying to use these countries to curb the migration flow, but this requires large investments.

British policy in the Western Balkans

On October 22, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, gathered representatives of six countries in the Western Balkans region. These include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), self-proclaimed Kosovo, Northern Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro. The meeting was also attended by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas. Even officially, the main topic of the summit was the reduction of Russia's influence in the region, as well as issues of European integration and migration.

The meeting in London is part of the so-called "Berlin process" launched by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2014. Its goal is to accelerate the accession of the region's countries to the EU. The UK, despite Brexit, remained in the program and even strengthened its position. For example, this year London appointed a new special representative for the Western Balkans, an experienced high—ranking diplomat, Karen Pearce.

Britain does not forget about trade either. From 2019 to 2024, trade turnover with the countries of the region increased from £1 billion to £4.3 billion. In February 2024, the UK announced the allocation of up to £15.75 billion to increase British exports and investments in the region. They are mainly aimed at supporting strategic infrastructure projects.

The main goal of this summit in the UK is not so much to offer something real, useful and practical for the Balkan region, as to prevent Russia's influence in it, and most importantly, to capture the minds of the political elites of the Balkan states, Milan Lazovich, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia.

The countries of the region can be roughly divided into two groups in relation to Russia. Albania, North Macedonia and Kosovo support sanctions against Russia and provide military support to Ukraine.

— However, there is no doubt that such aspirations (to squeeze the Russian Federation out of the Balkans. — Ed.) will cause a critical and ambiguous approach in Serbia, Republika Srpska (the entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina), as well as partly in Montenegro, the expert noted.

The United Kingdom is gradually expanding its military presence in the region. In 2021, the UK established a permanent military group in North Macedonia. Since 2023, London has begun training and equipping individual parts of the BiH Armed Forces. In October, it announced an intention to allocate £4 million to combat "Russian disinformation in the region." Britain will continue to participate in the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo until at least 2028.

Pressure on the Western Balkans countries

It is Serbia that Western countries are currently exerting particularly strong pressure on. Belgrade has not only not joined the sanctions against Russia, but is also negotiating the construction of a nuclear power plant and the conclusion of a new gas contract.

Britain plays a significant role in the efforts of the Western camp. So, Izvestia previously wrote that London and Berlin are trying to put pressure on Belgrade to remove supporters of developing relations with the Russian Federation from the Cabinet of Ministers of Serbia. The ultimate goal of the UK and the European Union is to force the republic to join the sanctions against Moscow, stop direct flights to Russia and abandon its gas.

The difficult domestic political situation in Serbia is also being actively exploited. The President of the Republic, Alexander Vucic, said that the special services of several countries are financing protests in the country, $4 billion has already been spent on this. However, Belgrade consistently refuses to sever ties with Russia.

The UK operates in the region mainly with the help of intelligence agencies and links to Albanian crime. The European Union has great levers of pressure on Serbia, including economic ones, thanks to trade and a large number of Serbian workers, political analyst Vadim Trukhachev told Izvestia.

— The main issue that the British are unable to resolve in this region is the issue of the admission of its countries to the EU. Ultimately, the association will have the last word," the expert believes.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Serbia would not be able to join the EU without imposing sanctions against Russia, a resolution of the same content was supported by the European Parliament on October 22. In addition to restrictions, it is also necessary to cancel the visa-free regime with Russia, which is maintained by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro. Serbian Ambassador to Russia Momcilo Babic earlier told Izvestia that the visa-free regime between Moscow and Belgrade would remain in place. But Montenegro, on its way to the EU, intends to bring its requirements in line with European ones, which will affect Russians, said the country's president, Yakov Milatovich.

The Republika Srpska is blocking Bosnia and Herzegovina's transition to an anti-Russian policy. In fact, its president Milorad Dodik was removed from office by a court decision due to his refusal to comply with the decisions of High Representative Christian Schmidt. The latter was appointed without the consent of the UN Security Council. Milorad Dodik himself said in the spring that the UK was preparing 40 military personnel who were supposed to eliminate him during his detention. He received information about this from the Prime Minister and three presidents of European states.

Britain offers to send migrants to the Balkans

The countries of this region suddenly proved to be an important factor in the survival of Cyrus Starmer's cabinet. One of the main reasons for British discontent was his migration policy. In the first year of the Labor Party's rule, 50,000 illegal immigrants arrived in the country. This caused a collapse in the party's rating and mass protests.

According to the UK authorities, about 22,000 illegal migrants came to the country through the Western Balkans. Therefore, if the United Kingdom can reduce the flow of refugees and send some of those who arrived back, then the Labor Party will be able to stop the decline in ratings.

Back in March, London reported that they were considering sending migrants who had been denied asylum to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia, and Serbia. The plan involves the opening of "return centers" in these countries, where migrants can wait their turn to be sent home. Upon reaching an agreement, the UK will pay compensation for the reception of each expelled asylum seeker.

This initiative has provoked a contradictory response in the region. So far, she is viewed positively only in Pristina. Montenegro's Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said his country "does not act as part of the migration routes through the Balkans," but will agree to host a migrant return center if Britain invests €10 billion in railway construction.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama refused to deploy such infrastructure on his territory, but agreed to the presence of British border officers. Milorad Dodik previously told Izvestia that the Orthodox population of BiH is not eager to accept Muslims.

The UK's migration initiative also represents an additional lever of influence, primarily on Belgrade. As Milan Lazovic noted, it is unlikely that the Serbian authorities will be happy with attempts to convince them to accept migrants. Against the background of political instability in the country, this can provoke an increase in crime, a government budget deficit, a shortage of jobs and a number of other problems.

Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that this initiative would find support only if Britain offered huge investments to the countries of the region.