They have a premiere: will Takaichi change relations between Russia and Japan

For the first time, a woman became the Prime Minister of Japan. Sanae Takaichi managed to conclude a coalition agreement at the last moment. At the same time, being a follower of Shinzo Abe, the new leader adheres to ultraconservative views and a tough stance on women's rights. Experts do not expect any changes in Tokyo's foreign policy: Japan will continue to strengthen defense cooperation with the United States. However, it is Washington's rhetoric towards Moscow that will determine Russian-Japanese relations. Takaichi's meeting with Trump at the end of October will decide a lot. Whether the energy cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo will be preserved is in the Izvestia article.

Who became the new Prime Minister of Japan

Japan has elected a new prime minister. For the first time in its history, Parliament has appointed a female head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi, to this post. Moreover, she was elected leader of the ruling party only two weeks ago. All this time, it was not clear whether Takaichi would be able to become the head of the government and, consequently, the entire country.

The main challenge to her was posed by the Buddhist Komeito Party, which had previously collaborated with the LDP for 26 years. However, this time she refused to become part of the Takaichi government. As a result, her victory was secured by the support of the Innovation Party of Japan. The new coalition was announced just the day before, on October 20. Thus, 237 deputies out of 465 voted for her — just four votes more than the required minimum.

— Sanae Takaichi's victory came in a difficult political struggle. This already speaks to her leadership qualities. Of particular importance is the fact that Japan recognized a woman as Prime minister for the first time, which means overcoming an important line of gender inequality that still haunts Japan," Oleg Kazakov, senior researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

At the same time, Takaichi can hardly be called a follower of feminism. Komeito rejected the coalition precisely because of the too conservative views of the new head of the LDP. In particular, she opposes the revision of a 19th-century law that does not allow the preservation of a maiden name, as well as the legalization of same-sex marriage and the right of women to inherit the imperial throne.

The difficult political struggle, on the other hand, points to Takaichi's shaky position. It is no coincidence that Japan is in a political crisis: it has been the fourth time in five years that the country's prime minister has been replaced.

Takaichi's predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation just over six months after taking office in order to prevent an emerging split in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. During his short reign, the LDP lost its majority in both chambers at once. Therefore, Takaichi will at least have to face massive opposition when making key policy decisions.

— Her political base is quite weak, and there are big doubts about whether she will be able to stay in power long enough. Especially considering the fact that the coalition agreement with the Innovation Party of Japan was signed just a few days ago. It can quickly fall apart due to someone's ambitions or mutual claims," says Vladimir Nelidov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

However, Takaichi still has plenty of political ambitions. She has repeatedly admitted that her role model is Margaret Thatcher. That's what she said during her election campaign.: "My goal is to become the Iron Lady. Even the hobbies of the new Prime Minister of Japan seem to emphasize her strong-willed nature. In his youth, Takaichi listened to Iron Maiden and Black Sabbath and rode a motorcycle.

The main area where Takaichi will have to use his qualities as a tough leader is the economy, as Japan is in fact in a political crisis due to the weak yen and rising prices. In this regard, she adheres to the so—called "Abenomics" line of the late leader Shinzo Abe, which consists in easing the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, as well as stimulating the economy through aggressive government spending and structural reforms.

— It's great to see the first female head of state in Japan, but I don't think she's capable of changing much. The LDP is currently very weak, having not even received a majority in both chambers, and is very unpopular. The party barely survived this time. She is likely to suffer even more losses in the next election. Takaichi will be very sensitive to any political reaction," Saori Katada, director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Southern California, told Izvestia.

Will relations between Japan and Russia change with the arrival of Takaichi

The foreign policy course is not likely to undergo radical changes, experts agree. The Japanese establishment will continue to develop defense cooperation with the United States and, in general, the alliance of Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. This trend is developing, in particular, in the context of the United States' deliberate strategy to contain China. There is a de facto consensus among political forces in Japan on the need to deepen cooperation with the United States, Nelidov notes. Therefore, Japan should also expect further rapprochement with Australia and the Philippines in the defense sphere and for the implementation of the so-called "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Region" (Asia-Pacific region), which in fact, according to most non-Western experts, implies consolidated actions to curb Chinese ambitions in the region.

Takaichi herself has a desire for some kind of militarism. Like Abe, she supports the revision of article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. The law adopted after the Second World War prohibits the country from conducting military operations and having its own army. Nevertheless, Japan has Self-Defense Forces, which, not least thanks to American support, have become one of the strongest armed forces in the region and even in the world. However, desire alone is not enough.

— The revision of the Constitution requires the consent of a qualified majority of both houses of Parliament. In addition, it is necessary to hold a national referendum, and public opinion polls indicate that there is no consensus on this issue," Olga Dobrinskaya, PhD in History, Senior researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia, draws attention.

By the way, even such a political heavyweight as Abe failed to bring it even to the vote of the parliament. Therefore, Japan is unlikely to become a key military power in the near future.

A lot will become clear after Sanae Takaichi's meeting with Donald Trump, Kazakov notes. The opportunity to establish contact with the American counterpart will present itself in the near future. Trump's visit to Japan is scheduled for October 27-29, and at the end of the month, the leaders will be able to talk at the APEC summit in South Korea.

— It can be expected that during Trump's upcoming visit to Japan, the parties will confirm their intention to strengthen the alliance. At the same time, Japan's demand from the United States to further increase military spending, which will put a serious strain on the country's economy, as well as Washington's concerns about the strength of the new coalition in Tokyo, may affect the dynamics of the bilateral dialogue," Olga Dobrinskaya added.

Therefore, there may be surprises due to Trump's unpredictable policy. And this is precisely what can influence Tokyo's political course towards Moscow.

— Japan will calibrate its line depending on how the Russian-American dialogue develops. This has already happened before, when the previous Prime Minister, Isiba, took a much more moderate position on Russia than, for example, European countries during Trump's efforts to mediate in the Ukrainian conflict, Dmitry Streltsov, head of the MGIMO Department of Oriental Studies, told Izvestia.

However, radical changes in relations between Moscow and Tokyo should not be expected — it is too early to talk about easing sanctions against the Russian Federation. As well as about the progress in the Kuril issue, which is still on hold. Japan will not agree to conclude a peace treaty by renouncing its claims, and Russia, accordingly, will not make territorial concessions.

In general, the resumption of the political dialogue between Moscow and Tokyo depends on the common position of the West and, accordingly, on the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.

Nevertheless, Japan still maintains economic ties with Russia, primarily in the field of energy. For example, she participates in the Sakhalin-2 project, which is important for the Russian Federation.

— Theoretically, we can also talk about the Northern Sea Route, which, in general, has been the subject of some kind of controversy for a long time, or at least various forecasts. Moreover, Japan has not formally withdrawn from the Arctic projects, which are currently frozen, but they can be resumed," Streltsov added.

So far, Japan, while maintaining anti-Russian sanctions, will try to be pragmatic in certain issues, that is, to preserve certain traditions of economic cooperation, cultural and educational areas. Tourism stands out in particular. At least, Japan does not restrict the flow of tourists from the Russian Federation, which has completely exceeded the historical maximum for one particular month. The number of Russians who visited Japan this September increased by 108.1% compared to the same period in 2024.