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- An unpredictable element: which regions of the Russian Federation will be affected by the abnormal winter
An unpredictable element: which regions of the Russian Federation will be affected by the abnormal winter
The upcoming winter may be a serious challenge for the whole country. The 2025/26 season promises to be one of the most unpredictable in the history of meteorological observations conducted since 1779. Experts predict abnormal temperature changes, heavy snowfalls and rare phenomena for some regions, such as freezing rain. For more information about what to expect from November to February, what is the reason for the abnormal winters and when it will be hardest, see the Izvestia article.
The Return of La Niña
American scientists predict global changes in the global weather in the winter of 2025/26. So, Severe Weather Europe warns that La Nina (translated from Spanish as "girl"), a cold climatic phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, will return in November. The opposite phenomenon, when huge masses of water in the equatorial part overheat, is called El Nino ("boy"). They alternate every few years, radically changing the climate picture in winter and summer.
In this regard, the forecasts of Russian weather forecasters remain contradictory. The connection of the winter forecast with the global environmental agenda is emphasized by climatologist Alexey Kokorin. According to his estimates, the number of warm days will increase 2-3 times this winter. Since Russia is located close to the warming oceans, natural disasters are particularly acute here, despite the country's location in the polar latitudes.
A similar opinion is expressed by climatologist and Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Klimenko. The scientist believes that there will be no severe frosts in the next hundreds of years. In his opinion, the air temperature in the capital in the winter months will never fall below -30 degrees for a long time, and in 2025/26 Muscovites will again have an abnormally warm winter.
At the same time, Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, recalled in the Izvestia press center that the winter of 2024/25 was the second warmest in the history of meteorological observations in the country. Based on this, it can be expected that the 2025/26 season will be relatively colder than the previous one. However, as the expert notes, it is still impossible to predict the exact beginning of winter, whether earlier or later.
The main feature of the upcoming winter will be the so-called temperature swing. The difference between daytime and nighttime readings, as well as between the weather during one week, can reach 15-18 degrees. Therefore, after an abnormal thaw with rain, a sharp and severe frost may descend.
Moscow winter without cold
The beginning of the calendar winter in the Moscow region promises to be gradual and ambiguous. According to the long-term forecast of the Yandex Weather service, November will be dank and gray, with variable temperatures. During the day, the average values are expected to range from 0 to 3 degrees, and at night — from -1 to -7 degrees. At the same time, forecasters predict 23 cloudy days, nine rainy, three snowy and three clear days, which indicates significant weather instability and frequent changes in atmospheric conditions.
Nevertheless, according to Alexander Ilyin, a specialist at the Meteo forecasting center, by mid-November residents of the capital region can expect a steady cold snap and the first frosts after November 15.
"If it snows during this period, then a snow cover will begin to form in the city. However, it will be able to become permanent only in early December or the first decade of the first winter month," the forecaster clarifies.
According to experts from the Phobos Weather Center, December in Moscow will be two degrees above the climatic norm. The weather is moderately mild in the first half of the month, and by the end of December, on New Year's Eve, the thermometer will drop to -6...-10 degrees. A light snowfall is forecast during this period, which will create a typical winter atmosphere without severe cold weather.
The first days of January will also pass without extreme frosts, but the snow cover will become dense and stable, suitable for walking and winter entertainment. The average temperature at the beginning of the year will be three degrees higher than the usual values for this time.
According to forecasters, February will be the most contrasting month of winter. Precipitation will be about twice as high as normal, and the air temperature will be four degrees above the long—term average. At the same time, Muscovites should prepare for temperature fluctuations: from mild frosts of -1 to unexpected thaws with an increase to +12 degrees.
Petersburg under the snow and rain
Winter in the Northern Capital will also be changeable. According to the data Wismeteo.com The average temperature in December will be about -1 degree, which is two degrees higher than the average values over the past ten years. Until December 12, the temperature will range from -9 to +5 degrees, and by the middle of the month it will be set at about -3 degrees. Precipitation is expected for 11 days, mainly from December 5 to December 19.
In January 2026, the temperature background will remain mild. During the day, the thermometer will range from -6 to 0 degrees. Forecasters predict an abundance of sleet and rain, which, according to preliminary estimates, will fall more than usual.
The last month of winter is expected to be frosty. In the first decade, the temperature will stay around 0 degrees, but by the end of the month, a noticeable cooling is expected — up to -5 degrees. The amount of precipitation in February will exceed the January figures. Rain and snow will fall for about ten days. At the same time, the air humidity will remain high, more than 82%, which will create humid and frosty weather typical for the Northern Capital.
The slopes are under threat
Temperature instability in winter can lead to serious consequences in the mountainous regions of the country. One of the most dangerous manifestations is avalanches, which occur when the stability of the snow cover is disrupted by internal processes and external influences. The following areas in Russia are considered avalanche-prone: Khibiny Mountains, North Caucasus, Urals, Kuznetsk Alatau, Altai, Sayan Mountains, Baikal region, Sikhote-Alin, Kamchatka Mountains, Northeast Siberia, Birranga.
As Irina Fedorkina, Deputy head of the Ecology Department at MTUCI, explains, avalanches are possible on slopes with a steepness of more than 15° and with a snow cover thickness of more than 30 cm. Gatherings occur in all mountainous regions of Russia — from the ledges of sea terraces and on the plain, from the sides of river valleys and ravines, walls of quarries and rock dumps, as well as from the roofs of houses.
— The areas where avalanches occur regularly occupy more than 18% of the territory within Russia. About 5% more of the country's area are potentially dangerous zones, where the terrain is favorable for avalanche formation and in case of destruction of woody vegetation — natural protection from avalanches — or with an increase in the amount of solid precipitation, snow masses from the slopes will be possible. Significant differences in the terrain and climatic conditions in Russia lead to the fact that the snow avalanche regime here is more diverse than in any other country in the world," the expert notes.
In the high-altitude regions of the Caucasus, Altai, and the Kamchatka Peninsula, where pronounced Alpine relief forms with sharp peaks and jagged ridges are typical, avalanches form mainly in circuses, craters, and complex denudation craters with a rocky surface.
The expert adds that the area of such avalanche collections can reach 250-300 hectares, and their relative height is 1000-1500 m. The density of the avalanche network here is 8-15 avalanche accumulations per 1 linear kilometer of the valley floor. The number of avalanche accumulations decreases with an increase in the relative height of the slopes, but their area, on the contrary, increases. In the low mountains, the share of avalanche collectors — cars and circuses — most often does not exceed 1%, but their area is quite large — in the Polar and Circumpolar Urals they occupy up to 12% of the total area of avalanche collections.
In the middle and low mountains, denudation craters and erosive incisions predominate, Irina Fedorkina emphasizes. So, in Khibiny, about 80% of all avalanche collections are denudation craters with an average area of 6-8 hectares. On the Udokan ridge, 45% of avalanche collections are made up of erosion incisions and denudation craters with an area of 0.5–50 hectares, and 25% are multi—chamber denudation craters with an area of up to 250-300 hectares. Avalanche formation often occurs on undifferentiated slopes.
Avalanche collections of this type account for about 40% of the total in the Kolyma Highlands with an average area of about 10 hectares and a maximum area of more than 120 hectares, 30% — on the Udokan ridge. The width of such slopes can exceed 3,500 m, and the drop height is 500 m. In the mid-mountain regions of Western Altai, on the western and northwestern slopes of the Sayan Mountains, the Baikal Region and Transbaikalia, the density of the avalanche collection network is 5-10 per 1 linear kilometer. For most of the average categories, the network density is 1-5 per 1 linear kilometer.
The Winter Element Trap
In recent years, meteorologists have recorded an increase in cases of freezing rain, even in those regions where previously such phenomena occurred only once a decade. So, at the end of November last year, an icy rain fell in Moscow. The duration of precipitation turned out to be short, and the utilities managed to quickly eliminate the consequences of the ice.
Freezing rain is a special type of mixed precipitation that occurs when the weather is negative. It occurs during a temperature inversion. There is cold air near the earth's surface, and above it there is a warmer layer with positive values. A prerequisite for the formation of freezing rain is considered to be the air temperature at the surface from 0 to -10 degrees, sometimes up to -15.
Raindrops, falling through the cold layer, freeze and form ice "capsules" with liquid water inside. Upon contact with the surfaces, they partially collapse, and the water spreads and freezes instantly, forming ice. This phenomenon often causes significant damage, so it is classified as a natural disaster.
Freezing rain causes icing on roads, bridges, sidewalks, and power lines. In Russia, it is most often observed in coastal cities and northern regions such as Murmansk and Vladivostok. Although forecasters have learned to accurately predict the appearance of freezing rain, it is completely impossible to prepare for it — this is an abnormal element. People can only minimize the risks.: if possible, do not leave the house and remove personal cars from the street. Emergency services must be prepared to deal with the consequences quickly, which can sometimes be very significant.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
