Exchange path: Will the new Gas deal fall through

Israel and Hamas continue to implement the peace plan, albeit with delays and constant accusations against each other. Another scandal occurred on October 15: the movement handed over four bodies of hostages to Israel, but one of them actually belonged to a resident of Gaza. The mistake caused outrage among the Israeli authorities, returning the issue of the viability of the deal to the agenda. However, experts note that the international community's request for a settlement of the acute phase of the conflict overcomes the dissatisfaction of the parties.

Difficulties of exchange

Initially, Hamas and Israel agreed to a 48-for-2000 exchange, and the Palestinian side was supposed to hand over both the living and dead hostages. However, in fact, Hamas was able to return only eight bodies (out of 28) — and not without scandal.

The last broadcast took place on the morning of October 15th. Hamas handed over four unidentified bodies to the Red Cross. One of them, as it was later established, belonged to a resident of the Palestinian exclave (probably a pro-Israel loyalist), which was a violation of the agreement. Israel, through the mouth of Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, threatened to renegotiate the cease-fire agreement.

At the same time, the Israelis have so far only demanded that the bodies of the hostages be transferred according to an approved list, rather than speeding up the process, since Hamas tends to explain the delay by "losing track" of the dead, rather than intentionally undermining the deal.

Egypt has volunteered to help in the search for the lost bodies. Rescue teams formed with the participation of Cairo have already begun monitoring areas where hostages could presumably be located. However, this work has not yet brought results.

Problems with the return of the bodies of the dead

Israeli public figures interpret the hostage situation in their own way, drawing parallels with the high-profile "Bibas family case." The bodies of Cheri Bibas and her two sons were returned in February 2025 as part of Trump's first gas deal. According to Hamas, all three were killed in the Israeli bombing. However, forensic experts have established that the hostages died in captivity, long before the exchange. And, with a high degree of probability, from violent acts. Moreover, instead of Sheri Bibas' body, another corpse was initially handed over by the Palestinians, which also caused an outpouring of indignation.

Referring to this story, the opposition claims that Hamas is "systematically ignoring" the agreements and demands a tough reaction from the government. And West Jerusalem is responding: in response to the delay in exchanges, Israel has reduced the volume of humanitarian aid allowed into the exclave (although it had previously pledged to significantly increase supplies), and also blocked the Rafah checkpoint (on the border with Egypt).

As a result, both sides violated their commitments on the most sensitive points of the agreement from each other's point of view, which made further settlement unstable.

Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized in this regard that the result was expected. Moreover, each of the parties approached the preparation of the agreement based on the idea that they "rather did not need it than needed it."

— They (Israel and Hamas. They are responding more to outside pressure from the United States and regional states that are keenly interested in formally ending the current phase of the conflict. Therefore, they leave room for maneuver at each stage, try to avoid binding measures, agreements and save the maximum number of options for exiting the deal by accusing the opposite side of disrupting the agreements reached," he explained.

Trump threatened Hamas

In light of the stalling of the exchanges, US President Donald Trump reiterated the thesis of "serious consequences" for Hamas in the event of undermining the deal. However, the Republican's main focus was not on the issue of the return of hostages, but on the prospects for disarmament in Gaza.

"Hamas told me through my people at the highest level that they would disarm. If not, we will disarm them — and this will probably be done with violence," he said at a meeting with his Argentine counterpart Javier Miley.

At the same time, the White House, apparently, considers the issue of exchanges closed to itself, since it does not put pressure on either side to speed up. Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev, in an interview with Izvestia, notes that Trump's threatening attacks were rather an attempt to intimidate opponents, "and, apparently, Hamas is also well aware of this."

At the same time, according to him, in the case of systemic disregard of Trump's wishes, Hamas may indeed face consequences — although the "use of violence" in this case will not be directly correlated with the armed forces of the United States.

"Most likely, the United States will deploy full—scale military and economic assistance to Israel, contribute to the technical strengthening of the IDF, but will not involve its own military personnel, who are already planning to deploy in the military coordination center they are creating on Israeli territory," Tokoldoshev concluded.

The post-war situation in Gaza

Despite the difficulties, the "settlement momentum" set in Sharm el-Sheikh remains. A step towards advancing the peace formula, approved with the mediation of the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, is the work on launching the Peace Council, which should become the institute for governing the exclave during the transition period. According to statements by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ata, the collective body will include a dozen and a half Palestinian technocrats. The exact composition has not yet been disclosed, but the Egyptian side emphasizes that the proposed candidates have received the support of all factions, including Hamas. Trump, as the main ideologist of the settlement, was invited to head the council.

"We need to use them to ensure the daily lives of people in Gaza, and the Peace Council must support and control the flow of finance and money that will go to rebuild Gaza," Abdel Ata said.

However, according to Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the current settlement vector rather reflects the desire and willingness of the countries participating in the negotiation process to recognize the establishment of a new status quo in the region. The motivation of Hamas and Israel is linked to attempts not to fall into international isolation.

— No matter how Israel says that it is ready for self-isolation, its society and economy are not ready for this, and, consequently, the Cabinet of Ministers is under serious pressure from within, from diasporas and lobbying pro-Israel groups, including in the United States. It is quite difficult for the cabinet to ignore these requests," he added.

In this case, Hamas, no matter how much it claims to have strong and uncontested control on earth, has lost allies and is faced with the willingness of regional states to definitively separate the Palestinian issue from the topic of the future of Hamas. And this forces him to participate in the negotiations, so as not to be completely and totally isolated here and now, the expert concluded.