The Earth's climate has changed forever: What awaits humanity after the point of no return

For decades, the topic of global warming has been the subject of heated debate. However, today the scientific community is increasingly declaring that the period of discussion is over. According to many researchers, the Earth has passed a critical "point of no return." This does not mean that fighting climate change is pointless, but it states a harsh fact: some of the processes we have launched are already irreversible on the scale of human life, and now we are not talking about prevention, but about mitigating the consequences and adapting to the new reality. For more information, see the Izvestia article.

What is the "point of no return" in climatology?

In the context of climate, the "point of no return" is a critical threshold after which the planet enters a qualitatively new state. This is the moment when the climate system begins to develop according to a self—sustaining scenario, no longer dependent on the initial impact factor - greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.

Simply put, even if humanity completely stopped burning fossil fuels tomorrow, some processes would continue to unwind by inertia, like a flywheel.

The main reason for this is the existence of so—called "feedback loops" in the climate system. These are natural mechanisms that, once started, begin to accelerate themselves. The two most dangerous and already activated loops are associated with the melting of permafrost and the reduction of ice cover.

Melting permafrost: a time bomb

One of the most alarming irreversible trends is the degradation of permafrost, which occupies vast territories in Siberia and Canada. Permafrost is not just frozen land; it is a giant natural storage of organic carbon that has been accumulating there for thousands of years.

As global temperatures rise, the permafrost begins to thaw. This is the feedback loop: when melting, methane and carbon dioxide, powerful greenhouse gases, are released into the atmosphere. These gases enhance the greenhouse effect, which leads to a further increase in temperatures and, as a result, to accelerated melting of even larger areas of permafrost. This self-sustaining process has already begun, and it is impossible to stop it in the short term. Carbon release from permafrost is becoming an independent and powerful driver of climate change.

Snow and ice cover: the vanishing shield of the planet

A similar mechanism works with polar ice and snow cover. This is where the principle of albedo comes into effect — the ability of a surface to reflect solar radiation. Snow and ice, being white, have a high albedo and effectively reflect up to 80-90% of sunlight back into space. However, when they melt, the dark surface of the ocean or land is exposed, which, on the contrary, absorbs most of the heat.

This triggers another feedback loop: less ice — more heat is absorbed — the temperature rises — even more ice melts. The reduction of Arctic ice and snow cover in Siberia and Greenland directly contributes to the warming of the entire planet. This process has also entered the stage of self-maintenance, which is confirmed by the record rate of melting of the ice sheets.

What awaits us in the "new reality" of the point of no return

Passing the point of no return means that humanity will have to live in a world with a fundamentally different climate. The increase in frequency and intensification of extreme weather events is not a temporary anomaly, but a new norm. Heat waves similar to the one observed in Canada in 2021, prolonged droughts, catastrophic floods and large-scale wildfires will occur more frequently.

The consequences are already being felt at the global level: the threat of flooding of coastal cities due to rising sea levels, agricultural crises, waves of migration from regions that have become uninhabitable, and loss of biodiversity. The world is entering an era when climate risk management will become one of the key tasks for the survival and development of civilization, some experts say.

How to adapt to the "point of no return"

Stating that the point of no return has passed is not a call for surrender, but a harsh reminder of the need for an urgent review of strategy.

If it is no longer possible to prevent these large—scale changes, then it is still in our power to minimize their devastating consequences. This requires unprecedented efforts in two directions.:

— first, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible, so as not to launch new critical chains.;

— secondly, the active development and implementation of measures to adapt to the inevitable changes. The future of the planet and civilization now depends on our ability to act consciously and collectively in this new reality.