Forward tank: oil workers ask Cabinet to impose moratorium on reset of damper
Oil companies have asked the Cabinet of Ministers to impose a moratorium on resetting the damper. This issue was discussed at a government meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Izvestia learned. Oil companies are trying to increase fuel production, but they state zero or unprofitable retail margins. Experts believe that the challenges that the industry is facing require flexibility in making decisions that can saturate the market with fuel. Izvestia investigated whether the Cabinet of Ministers would meet business halfway and how this might affect prices.
What was discussed at the government meeting?
Representatives of oil companies have asked the government to consider introducing a moratorium on resetting the damper. This information was voiced at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on October 9, a source told Izvestia. According to the source, the deputy head of the Cabinet promised to consider this issue.
The damping mechanism was introduced in January 2019 to curb domestic fuel prices. If the export price of gasoline and diesel fuel is higher than the nominal domestic price, the government compensates companies for part of this difference so that they do not raise prices in the Russian Federation and vice versa. The damper is paid only if the average wholesale cost of fuel for the month has not increased more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60,450 rubles per ton for gasoline and 57,200 rubles for diesel.
Speaking about the economics of retail business, the meeting participants noted that currently the sale of fuel at gas stations is either unprofitable or its margin is zero.
On October 9, the cost of AI-92 on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange was 74.16 thousand rubles per 1 ton, AI-95 — 80.13 thousand per 1 ton, diesel fuel — 73.05 thousand rubles for the same volume. Monthly price changes were +1.7%, +1.3% and +16.1%, respectively.
At the same time, according to Rosstat, the cost of gasoline from September 29 to October 6 increased by 0.85%, for diesel — by 0.42%, which is 3.7 and 1.8 times higher, respectively, than inflation over the same period (0.23%). Average consumer gasoline prices increased by 55 cents to 64.33 rubles per liter, while diesel prices rose by 31 cents to 72.94 rubles per liter.
A week earlier (from September 22 to September 28), the retail price of gasoline in the country increased by almost 0.8%, or 50 kopecks, reaching 63.78 rubles per liter. Over the same period, diesel prices rose by 0.6% to 72.63 rubles per liter. From September 15 to September 21, this indicator was slightly lower: gasoline added 0.62%, diesel — 0.45%. Thus, the pace of price appreciation is accelerating, and retail growth exceeds weekly inflation.
Nevertheless, according to another interlocutor familiar with the discussion of the issue, the economics of refining large oil companies are unprofitable — "minus 5-6 thousand per ton."
Despite this, some representatives of regulators at the meeting noted that "over the past year and a half, the marginality of the retail business has been very high and the oil industry can tolerate it," while the cabinet called wholesale prices "prohibitively high."
Oil workers did not receive a dampener for gasoline in August
In September, payments from the Russian budget to oil companies for the fuel damper in August amounted to 30.5 billion rubles against 80.4 billion rubles in July. They affected only diesel fuel, as the average exchange price of AI-92 according to the territorial index of the European part of Russia in August was 69.34 thousand rubles per 1 ton. And the damper is paid only if the average wholesale price of gasoline for the month has not increased more than the indicative (conditional domestic) 10% for gasoline and 20% for diesel fuel. The indicative price in 2025 is 60.45 thousand rubles per 1 ton for gasoline and 57.2 thousand rubles for diesel fuel.
According to the Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media) Tamara Safonova, "The challenges that the industry is facing require flexibility in decision-making." This will allow "to saturate the market with fuel and ensure reasonable prices in the domestic market, including the optimization of subsidy systems."
Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, doubts that the Cabinet of Ministers will meet business halfway.
"At the end of the summer, the oil industry was already encouraged that they would consider raising the cost indicator for gasoline to 15%, but this did not happen," she said.
Earlier, the head of Gazprom Neft, Alexander Dyukov, put forward a proposal to grant the Cabinet the right to suspend the reset of the damper in force majeure circumstances.
Tamara Safonova notes that zeroing the damper leads to a tightening of the domestic price to the index of the export alternative.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy, the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and all major oil companies in the country.
About the situation on the fuel market
Nevertheless, companies are currently trying to increase the production of motor fuels. According to Izvestia's source in the industry, all Gazprom Neft and Lukoil plants are "operating at maximum capacity."
— So, in September, the Moscow oil Refinery additionally produced 35 thousand tons of gasoline and 70 thousand tons of diesel fuel, — said the interlocutor of the editorial office.
In addition, according to him, at a meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister, it was noted that in the coming days, "the situation with fuel supply is expected to improve in the new regions."
At the same time, on the eve of the meeting, on October 8, Alexander Novak said that oil companies had increased fuel production in Russia, and delivery issues were being handled manually, and there were no global problems in the fuel market right now. He added that, in general, there is a balance of supply and demand in the fuel market.
This year, experts told Izvestia, the main causes of the crisis include an increase in domestic demand during the agricultural harvest and the holiday season, as well as planned and emergency repairs at refineries.
Meanwhile, fuel problems in a number of regions have become the ground for the development of online gasoline sales. Today, dozens of messages about the sale of gasoline at a cheaper price than at gas stations can be found on free classifieds. Most often, they ask for 50-55 rubles for the AI-95. At the same time, in Moscow, the retail price of the AI-95 at VINKOV gas stations is 66-67 rubles per liter.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, member of the expert council of the Gas Station of Russia competition, is not sure that all gasoline sold via the Internet is counterfeit.
— Counterfeit products cost the same amount, because the cost of naphtha, petrochemicals, and additives is also expensive. After the tax maneuver, counterfeit production is economically unprofitable," the source notes.
In his opinion, stolen gasoline or simply sold for cash is represented on online platforms.
— Such sellers avoid paying taxes. They do not pay at least VAT, which reduces the cost of fuel by 20%. Now the demand for the services of container filling stations has increased, which, among other things, were sold for cash payments, which allowed them to keep the price low. And tax evasion is one of the problems of the existence of this market, which must be dealt with, — says Dmitry Gusev.
In general, experts expect the market to stabilize in the near future. According to Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult, the regulatory deadline for fuel shipment under exchange transactions is 30 days. Therefore, if the cabinet sees an improvement in the situation with fuel production, then a decrease in the rate of price growth should be waited, she believes.
"In the current conditions, the Cabinet of Ministers, together with oil companies, is trying to find a compromise in solving problems," the expert believes.
On October 9, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, commented on the situation in the fuel market, calling the price increase a temporary factor.
In turn, the Federal Antimonopoly Service told Izvestia that the agency constantly monitors fuel prices at 12,000 gas stations. They noted that the service continues to closely monitor the situation and, if unjustified price increases are detected, will take antitrust response measures.
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