They are connected by one rear: NATO turns Moldova into a supply base for Kiev
The West is trying to turn Moldova into a logistical base for supplying Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. According to him, Chisinau is eroding the country's neutral status and intensifying cooperation with NATO. With the support of the alliance, 18 long-term projects are already being implemented in the republic. Moldova's new military strategy involves increasing the defense budget to 1% of GDP, and the size of the army by a third. And the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service had not previously ruled out that NATO countries were preparing a "de facto occupation of Moldova" by the end of November. Against this background, the risks of escalation in Transnistria are growing: President Maia Sandu demands the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the region. How Moldova is gradually turning into a NATO foothold — in the material of Izvestia.
Moldova's rapprochement with NATO
On October 8, a new military strategy was presented in Moldova, where Russia was named the main threat to the republic. This caused a negative reaction in Moscow.
— We regard the military strategy of the republic for the period 2025-2035, approved by the Government of Moldova, as another step aimed at militarizing the country, bringing it closer to NATO and turning it into a rear base for supplying the criminal Kiev regime. This is what the Western sponsors of the Moldovan leadership are actively seeking under the guise of European integration," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia.
The strategy assumes a gradual increase in the defense budget to 1% of GDP, the size of the national army will grow by a third, and it should switch to NATO standards. The anti-Russian orientation of this document is obvious, Mikhail Galuzin noted. He drew attention to the fact that in the text of the strategy, the actions of the Russian Federation during its military operation are assessed as "aggression" and "its possible expansion to the Republic of Moldova" is not excluded. And the likely increase in territories under Russian control, according to the document, "poses a serious direct threat to the security and statehood of the Republic of Moldova, since the establishment of a land corridor to the country's borders may cause additional political and territorial pressure."
—This is despite the fact that our country has consistently demonstrated its desire to develop a pragmatic, mutually respectful dialogue with Moldova based on equality and non—interference in internal affairs," Mikhail Galuzin said.
The neutral status of Moldova is officially enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic, as well as the prohibition to deploy troops of other countries on its territory. However, attempts to include the republic in NATO have been made for a long time. For example, former Defense Minister Vitaly Marinuta stated the need to join both the EU and NATO. The current president, Maia Sandu, said in 2023 that there were "serious discussions" about Chisinau joining a "larger alliance," although she did not specifically name NATO.
Political analyst Denis Denisov, in an interview with Izvestia, stressed that Chisinau declares its intention to join NATO, although Moldova is split on this issue. In his opinion, it is expected that, despite the lack of public consensus, under the current leadership of Moldova, tremendous efforts will be made to integrate into the military bloc.
The new military strategy states that Moldova's neutrality "does not mean isolation or renunciation of self-defense." In fact, Russia sees that official Chisinau is pursuing a policy of emasculating the republic's neutral status and intensifying cooperation with NATO, Mikhail Galuzin noted.
— The supply of NATO weapons to the country is increasing from year to year. Moldovan military personnel regularly participate in multinational exercises of the alliance countries both domestically and abroad. In 2024 alone, there were over 30 of them. With the support of NATO, 18 long-term projects are being implemented in the republic. It is no coincidence that a key element of the new military strategy is the provision that the military training of Moldovan servicemen will be carried out "in accordance with NATO standards," the diplomat said.
In Moldova itself, the adoption of the strategy also caused a wave of criticism. Experts note the absurdity of plans to increase the size of the national army by a third, from 6.5 thousand to 8.5 thousand troops, and defense spending to 1% of GDP against the background of the catastrophic situation in the republic's economy. By the end of 2024, inflation in the country reached 7%, the external debt increased to $11.4 billion, and the balance of payments deficit amounted to about $1 billion.
There is also a decline in exports, industrial and agricultural production. Residents of the republic are concerned that following the militaristic aspirations of Brussels is fraught with risks to the republic's security. According to polls, over 65% of Moldovans oppose Moldova's membership in NATO.
Risks of destabilization of the situation in Transnistria
Chisinau's militarization actions may lead to new tensions in Transnistria. Maia Sandu said on October 1 that Russian peacekeepers who have been in Transnistria for more than 30 years should leave this territory "peacefully."
"This is a prerequisite, it is the most difficult task. After that, there will be gradual reintegration," she said.
Military equipment at a peacekeeping post on the bridge over the Dniester River
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service warned in late September that European countries were ready to keep Moldova in line with their Russophobic policies "at any cost, including the introduction of troops and the actual occupation of the country."
"To create a pretext, it is planned to organize armed provocations against Transnistria and the Russian troops stationed in the region. The period of holding elections to the Supreme Council of the PMR on November 30 is considered as a possible date," the press bureau of the SVR of the Russian Federation reported.
At the same time, Chisinau continues to exert economic pressure on Transnistria. Moldova has been preventing the export of products to Pridnestrovian factories since August 2023, calling the goods produced at them strategic and stating that their exports allegedly threaten the country's security. And since January 1, Russian gas supplies to Moldova through Ukraine have stopped due to Kiev's refusal to extend transit. In Transnistria, after that, rolling blackouts of light and heating began.
Moldova will not fully try to forcibly integrate Pridnestrovie, since now maintaining the status quo in the PMR guarantees the relatively peaceful existence of Moldova itself and is considered critically important for Ukraine, Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. According to her, Kiev now objectively does not have the resources to open a second front.
Denis Denisov, on the contrary, believes that the risks of conflict are increasing, as Maia Sandu feels more confident after winning the presidential and parliamentary elections. During this cadence, she and her entourage will try to solve the problem related to Transnistria and Gagauzia. There is also a very significant risk of involving NATO countries in such attempts, which will lead to a complete destabilization of the situation in the region.
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