Counter-questions: what topics did Putin fly to Tajikistan to discuss

On October 8, Vladimir Putin began a three-day state visit to Tajikistan. The Russian leader has already managed to hold an informal meeting with his counterpart Emomali Rahmon, present him with gifts and lay flowers at the monument to the founder of the first Tajik state. The main program of the state visit awaits the president on October 9. It is likely that during the official talks the heads of Russia and Tajikistan will primarily touch upon issues of regional security and migration. Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev on the same day. In Dushanbe, the Russian President will also take part in the Central Asia–Russia summit and a meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State.

The program of the President of Russia in Tajikistan

On October 8, Vladimir Putin arrived in Tajikistan on a state visit. During his presidency, he managed to visit here on working trips more than ten times. The first time was in 2000, and the last time was in June 2022.

President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon was personally waiting for Vladimir Putin at the ramp of the plane. Their communication took place "on their feet", in a bright interior — on a red carpet, framed on both sides by flowers. At that moment, footage from the meetings of the two heads of state was projected onto the airport building.

Then the Russian president went to the center of Dushanbe to lay a wreath at the monument to the founder of the first Tajik state, Ismail Somoni. The monument is located on Dusti (Friendship) Square. After that, Vladimir Putin and Emomali Rahmon held an informal meeting at the Iram Botanical Garden (Garden of Eden). There, the Russian president presented his counterpart with the painting "Tajik Friends" by artist Max Birstein and a beautifully designed book.

— Such a book is called "Tajiks". There are only 25 of them," Vladimir Putin said and clarified that he was presenting the first copy to Rahmon.

In the program of the state visit, the highest according to the diplomatic protocol, the head of the Russian state is still awaiting official talks with the President of Tajikistan. In 2025, this will be their fourth meeting, not counting phone conversations: the previous contact was on September 1 in Tianjin, China, at the SCO summit.

Economic cooperation is likely to be one of the topics of discussion. Russia is Tajikistan's leading trading partner, with a 22.6% share in the republic's foreign trade last year. For comparison: China has 21.8%, Kazakhstan - 14.4%. The trade turnover in 2024 increased by 7.1% to $1.5 billion, and by another 17.3% in the first seven months of this year.

There are more than 300 Russian companies operating in the republic. According to the Kremlin, 1.2 million Tajik citizens work in Russia, which is 16% of all foreigners working in the Russian Federation. Remittances from Tajik citizens to their homeland in 2024 amounted to $1.8 billion, which is 17% of the republic's GDP. Therefore, one of the topics at the talks between Vladimir Putin and Emomali Rahmon will be migration issues, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov previously confirmed to reporters.

Obviously, the leaders will sign a solid package of interstate documents. One of the central ones is a joint statement by the heads of state. They will focus on regional security issues separately. In particular, there is a constant dialogue between Moscow and Dushanbe on the Afghan issue. It should be recalled that the 201st Russian military base, which is located on the territory of Tajikistan, makes a significant contribution to ensuring the security of both the republic and the CSTO member states in Central Asia.

Experts are convinced that security issues in this region will become one of the most important. This follows, first of all, from the composition of the Russian delegation, in which a significant place is occupied by the "siloviki" — the ministers of defense, internal Affairs and the head of the Rosgvardiya.

— A separate issue is the gradual integration of Taliban Afghanistan into economic, transport and logistics projects involving the five states of the region, as well as major external players: China and Russia. Afghanistan will be a source of threats to the stability of Central Asian countries for a long time to come, as it slowly and not always by peaceful means solves the tasks of preserving the unity of the country, respecting the rights of ethnic and religious groups, overcoming the threat of famine, and providing medicines and fuel to the population. The border of the two states, stretching for 1,344 km, is guarded by the joint efforts of the Tajik army and the military personnel of the 201st military Base, Russia's largest military facility abroad, Stanislav Tkachenko, Doctor of Economics, Professor at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia.

In general, over the past four years, many problems related to security threats in the region have been resolved or stopped, he recalled. This, for example, concerns the end of a series of armed clashes and a significant reduction in tension on the borders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Major summits and bilateral negotiations

On October 9, in addition to the negotiations, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to participate in the second Central Asia–Russia summit. In addition to the Russian president, the summit will bring together the heads of five regional states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The first one was held three years ago — on October 14, 2022 in Astana. Then the leaders decided on approaches to further development of cooperation, and as a result, in 2024, a steady increase in the total mutual trade turnover was recorded, which exceeded $45 billion. This time, the leaders intend to discuss not only the trade and economic sphere, but also pay special attention to regional security, taking into account the tense situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Following the summit, it is planned to adopt a communique and a joint action plan for 2025-2027.

Despite the fact that the official state visit will end on October 9, Vladimir Putin will have another fruitful day in Dushanbe on October 10. A meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State will be held here. The summit will be attended by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The draft agenda of the summit is extensive, it includes 18 issues — from cooperation in the political and economic spheres, to partnership in the field of security and defense. It is also planned to approve a number of documents, in particular, the programs of cooperation of the CIS member states in the field of countering terrorism and extremism for 2026-2028 and in strengthening border security at the external borders for 2026-2030. The Concept of military cooperation between the CIS member states until 2030 will also be approved. It is expected that the leaders will also adopt a declaration on cooperation in ensuring regional energy security.

In addition, the parties intend to establish the CIS Plus format and grant the Shanghai Cooperation Organization observer status in the Commonwealth — this issue was closely discussed in Tianjin in September, where the leaders were in the same composition. At the meeting, Turkmenistan will assume the chairmanship of the CIS in 2026. The rotation in this post is in the order of the Russian alphabet.

Traditionally, such summits often become a platform for bilateral meetings of leaders, where they can discuss urgent issues of relations between the countries. A spokesman for the Russian president said that on October 9 in Dushanbe, Vladimir Putin will meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. This is an expected meeting where the parties will be able to discuss all problematic issues, including the crash of the AZAL passenger plane in December. The last time Aliev and Putin met was in September of this year: the leaders met at the SCO summit. Then they exchanged a few words, but there were no full-fledged negotiations.