"There are no old planes, there are faulty aircraft"

According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, by 2030 it is planned to retire 539 aircraft of various types, including 200 helicopters and 339 aircraft, of which 109 are foreign and 230 are domestic. Many operated vehicles have reached the age of 40-50 years. Industry experts told Izvestia how critical this is for civil aviation and what we will fly after 2030.

Fedor Borisov, Chief Expert at the HSE Institute of Transport Economics:

"On the one hand, there are no old planes, but there are faulty aircraft. With proper maintenance and timely repairs, even 50-year-old airliners fly great. Another thing is that many aircraft are no longer being produced and there is an unmet demand for new high-quality parts and technical components for them.

It is impractical to expand the production of spare parts, engines, avionics and other components for old equipment. It is better to prepare new planes and replace old ones with them. In recent years, Russia has made a significant breakthrough in this area. No one in the world develops or manufactures a wide range of different types of aircraft based solely on their own technological and production resources.

The aircraft industry should plan its work for 15-20 years ahead. If this does not happen, the backlog may become irreversible."

The chief editor of the portal Avia.ru Roman Gusarov:

"Russian airlines require 100 mainline aircraft such as the MC-21. It is possible to deploy deliveries of this aircraft by 2030, but on condition that flight tests are completed in the summer of 2026, and their serial production begins in the fall.

The Russian Tu-214 is capable of replacing the departure of foreign aircraft. At the same time, the serial production of this type of aircraft is limited by the volumes that the Kazan Aircraft Factory can realize. It produces units of these aircraft.

The situation is more complicated with regional aircraft to replace the 50-year-old AN-24/26 and Yak-40. Among the options are the IL-114-300, as well as the TVRS-44 Ladoga and LMS-901 Baikal being developed.

The An-2 may be replaced by the Russian-Belarusian 19-seat LMS-192 Osvey. But it is in the initial stage of development and is unlikely to be released in the series in the near future."

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Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the Aviport Agency:

"Upon closer examination, it turns out that the state and the aviators have tools with which to prevent the development of events according to a pessimistic scenario.

Let's start with the helicopter segment. Russian airlines have a significant surplus of heavy Mi-8T family and more modern Mi-8AMT/Mi-8MTV-1 aircraft. In addition, the demand for transportation and air work on such equipment is not growing. Consequently, even if a significant number of helicopters are decommissioned, there is no shortage of supply. Moreover, the mechanism of preferential helicopter leasing has already been established and is working effectively, which allows Russian airlines in different regions to successfully rejuvenate the Mi-8 fleet.

The situation is somewhat more complicated with smaller helicopters, but the beginning of flight tests of the Ansat with VK-650V engines shows that the industry will again be able to supply vehicles with a maximum take-off weight of about 3.5 tons.

There remains a gap in the lightest helicopters. Russian airlines have almost all such Western-made equipment. But major losses in this niche are not expected yet: only 10 light helicopters will be decommissioned.

A difficult situation is developing with regard to machines for regional air lines. The Russian aviation industry is completing development work on a range of aircraft with a capacity from 9 to 68 seats. These are the LMS-901 Baikal, LMS-192 Osvey, TVRS-44 Ladoga and Il-114-300.

The IL-114-300 is expected to be certified in 2026, and the first deliveries will take place at the same time. Similarly, the Baikal certification is scheduled for the end of next year. Ladoga and Osvey will be launched on the market by 2030. But it is obvious that the production and supply of this equipment will increase gradually, and in parallel, the inevitable "childhood diseases" of new machines will be eliminated.

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Therefore, significant efforts are required from airlines and the regulator in order to keep the An-24/26, Yak-40, L-410 and other regional and local aircraft on the wing for as long as possible. It is advisable to extend the calendar life of these types of airliners, maintain competence in the repair of components and assemblies, and train personnel for these aircraft. However, in the segment of regional and local air transportation without subsidies, new aircraft does not have a chance to pay off.

Finally, if we talk about mainline aircraft, the entire line of domestic airliners — from the 100-seat SJ-100 to the 210-seat Tu-214 — is in the final stage of certification tests. I have no doubt that the aviation industry will be ready to launch serial production of this technology. But the ability of the aviation industry to meet the needs of the air transport industry in modern technology depends not only on the timing of aircraft certification or the pace of production modernization. Large-scale budget financing will be required in order to support sales of new aircraft, and this is where there are risks of not achieving volume targets.

Unlike Western manufacturers, which have considerable own funds and at the same time can attract debt financing on attractive terms, domestic aircraft manufacturers do not have such financial capabilities and have to rely on government support."