Family — budget: where will 44 trillion rubles from the treasury go in 2026

The main areas of expenditure in the new financial plan for the next three years are social policy, national economy and defense. This follows from the draft federal budget for 2026-2028, which the Cabinet submitted to the State Duma on September 29. Citizens' support is also provided for in the Social Fund's estimates: starting in January, insurance pensions will be indexed above inflation by 7.6%. On average, the old-age payment will increase by almost 2 thousand and amount to 27 thousand. At the same time, budget revenues are projected to grow due to tax changes and the expected increase in household incomes. The treasury will remain in deficit, and the shortage will be covered primarily by public debt, which will remain at a safe level.

Where will the main budget expenditures be allocated in 2026

The government has submitted to the State Duma a draft budget for 2026-2028. Revenues are expected to reach 40.3 trillion rubles in 2026, 42.9 trillion in 2027 and 45.9 trillion in 2028. The costs will amount to 44.1 trillion, 46 trillion and 49.4 trillion, respectively. Thus, the deficit is projected at 1.6% of GDP (3.8 trillion rubles), 1.2% (3.1 trillion) and 1.3% (3.5 trillion). According to Andrei Makarov, head of the Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, the first reading of the document is scheduled for October 22.

— During the work on the budget, we will have to check the availability of financial support in full for all key areas. First of all, it is the unconditional fulfillment of the social obligations of the state, ensuring the defense and security of the country, including the support of ITS participants and their families, the achievement of the national development goals set by the president until 2030 and the implementation of national projects," Andrei Makarov told reporters.

Compared to 2025, budget expenditures will increase by 3% next year. According to the financial plan (Izvestia has reviewed it), the largest amount of funds has been allocated for national defense — almost 13 trillion rubles. As Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier at a cabinet meeting, the funds provided in the treasury will provide the army with the necessary weapons and equipment, payments to military personnel, support for their families, as well as the modernization of enterprises of the military-industrial complex.

The second largest area of expenditure is social policy. In 2026, it will be allocated 7.1 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, special attention is paid to supporting demography.: The so-called "children's budget" will exceed 10 trillion rubles for three years. It includes the payment of a single parent allowance, the extension of the maternity capital program with annual inflation indexation, and the ability to use the remaining funds of the certificate without specifying the goals.

Citizens' support is also provided for in the budget of the Social Fund. In 2026, more than 18.7 trillion rubles will be allocated for pensions, insurance benefits and other transfers through the SFR. Of these, almost 13 trillion will be used to pay the elderly.

Starting from January 1, insurance pensions will be indexed above inflation by 7.6%. On average, the old-age payment will increase by almost 2 thousand and reach 27 thousand rubles.

In 2026, the maximum amount of insurance benefits will also increase. So, the payment for temporary disability will exceed 207 thousand per month, maternity support will increase to 956 thousand rubles, and the allowance for child care up to 1.5 years — up to 83 thousand per month.

In addition, 119 billion rubles have been allocated for a new family payment, which will become effective in 2026: parents of two or more children will receive a portion of personal income tax if the average per capita family income is below 1.5 subsistence levels. In 2026, the PM will amount to almost 19 thousand rubles.

The third largest expenditure section is the national economy, which will be allocated over 4.8 trillion in 2026. This amount includes investments in the development of transport, roads, construction, agriculture, energy, as well as measures to support individual industries.

What will be the budget revenues in 2026

Budget revenues will increase by almost 9% in 2026, according to the financial plan. The main increase will be provided by non—oil and gas revenues - they will reach 31.4 trillion rubles.

The largest sources will be turnover taxes (VAT, excise taxes and duties), their collection will increase by 20% compared to this year's level, as well as taxes on profits and income (+6%). According to the budget materials, the increase is due to both the growth of household incomes and amendments: starting in 2026, the base value-added tax rate will increase from 20% to 22%. At the same time, the 10% discount rate will remain for socially important goods such as food, medicines and children's items.

In addition, the revenue threshold for companies under the simplified taxation system will be reduced six times, after exceeding which the obligation to pay VAT arises: from 60 million to 10 million rubles. As Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov emphasized on September 29, the measure is being taken to curb illegal tax minimization and business fragmentation schemes, and not to raise additional funds. A 25% profit fee is also being introduced for bookmakers.

Tax measures will ensure compliance with the budget rule, which will create conditions for slowing inflation, maintaining macroeconomic stability and gradually easing monetary policy, Maxim Reshetnikov, head of the Ministry of Economy, said earlier at a cabinet meeting. According to him, this will ultimately support economic growth. An alternative to tax measures would be to increase the treasury deficit, which would require a longer period of tight monetary conditions and would lead to a slowdown in GDP, the minister added.

— The VAT increase may cause a short-term price spike, but in general, budget consolidation reduces pro-inflationary risks and creates conditions for easing monetary policy in the future. If new sources of income were not found, the deficit would have to be closed by increasing the national debt. Although its level in Russia remains low (about 16-20% of GDP), an accelerated increase at high rates would mean an increase in maintenance costs and crowding out private investment, which in the long run could slow down economic growth. Therefore, a combination of moderate tax increases and deficit control looks like a more sustainable solution," said Alexey Kuzmin, Chairman of the Management Board of National Savings Bank JSC.

Oil and gas revenues will grow by only 2% and amount to almost 9 trillion rubles. The budget materials note that in 2025 they will be equal to 4% of GDP, but then their share will begin to decrease to 3.5% by 2028. This is due to the stabilization of prices after the sharp fluctuations of 2020-2024, the change in the ruble exchange rate, the dynamics of production and exports, as well as a decrease in the role of the oil and gas sector in the economy.

How will the budget deficit be covered

The main source of covering the deficit in the next three years will be domestic borrowing. The plans for them have been slightly increased. Thus, in 2026, the volume of public debt investments will amount to almost 4 trillion instead of the previously projected 3.5 trillion.

At the same time, the national debt will grow faster than previous expectations: 43.7 trillion rubles in 2026 against 40 trillion according to the previous forecast. Its ratio to GDP will increase from 17.7% this year to 19.5% by the end of the three-year period.

— Russia's national debt remains at a safe level. All developed countries live with debt: in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, it exceeds 100% of GDP. They borrow money and use that money to create goods and services for people. And where is the debt minimal? Djibouti and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are among the poorest countries. Therefore, it is important to maintain a balance between borrowing and payments on them. There is nothing dangerous in the very fact of government debt," said Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research.

An additional source of deficit coverage is privatization, but the proceeds from it are small — only 3.2 billion in 2026. Major transactions, as before, will be carried out according to separate decisions of the president and the government.

The National Welfare Fund is gradually losing its role as an instrument for financing shortages. In 2026, it is planned to cover only 38.5 billion rubles from it, which is due to the likely shortfall in oil and gas revenues.

— In Russia, the budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2026 does not look critical. Firstly, it will be lower than the expected level of 2025 — 2.5% of GDP," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Secondly, according to her, in comparison with other countries, this indicator remains moderate. For example, in the United States, the deficit reaches 6.4% of GDP, in France — 5.8%, in the UK — 5.3%, in India, Russia's BRICS partner, about 5%, and China predicts a record figure of 4% of GDP in 2026.