Review: The Ministry of Energy expects steady economic growth rates from 2027

The Ministry of Economic Development has adjusted the macro forecast until 2028. The agency has reduced economic growth by 2.5 times in 2025 to 1%, but predicts GDP growth to 2.8% in 2027. This is due to the geopolitical situation and the high key interest rate, which remained at 21% for six months. The forecast for the dollar exchange rate has also changed: in 2025 it will amount to 86.1 rubles (instead of 94.3 rubles budgeted). By 2026, the Russian national currency will weaken somewhat, and the exchange rate will reach 92.2 rubles/$. These parameters will form the basis of the draft budget for the next three years. They will make it possible to form a financial plan that will ensure the fulfillment of all social obligations, said Maxim Reshetnikov, head of the Ministry of Economic Development. How else the authorities plan to balance the budget is in the Izvestia article.

What is the macro forecast presented by the Ministry of Energy

The Ministry of Energy has prepared a new draft forecast for 2026 and the planning period 2027-2028, as well as revised estimates for 2025 (Izvestia has its main indicators). The agency submitted the updated document to the government.

According to Maxim Reshetnikov, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, when preparing the document, the trends in the development of the Russian and global economies, as well as the expected changes in fiscal policy, were taken into account.

— The presented basic version of the forecast makes it possible to form a balanced budget that will ensure the unconditional fulfillment of all social obligations, the further implementation of national projects and the solution of defense and security tasks. And tax measures to balance the budget ensure compliance with the budget rule," the head of the department stressed at a government meeting on September 24.

The minister explained that this is necessary to further slow down inflation, macroeconomic stability and the possibility of easing monetary policy. Ultimately, this is to support economic growth, he added.

According to Maxim Reshetnikov, the implementation of economic policy should focus on further developing the supply-side economy and increasing flexibility and efficiency.

Increasing labor productivity through the use of modern technologies, automation, robotics, and the introduction of AI are also becoming extremely important tasks, he emphasized.

As Izvestia wrote, the priorities of the financial plan for 2026-2028 are the fulfillment of social obligations to citizens, ensuring the needs of defense and security, supporting the families of ITS participants, as well as achieving national goals by 2030, defined by the president.

How much will the economy grow

The most significant changes affected the indicators of the real sector of the economy. Thus, the ministry predicts a 1% GDP growth by the end of this year. In April, expectations were at 2.5%. In addition, the Ministry of Energy slightly revised its forecasts for three years: in 2026, the economy will grow by 1.3% (against the expected 2.4% in April), in 2027 - by 2.8% (unchanged), in 2028 - by 2.5% (against 3%).

Positive growth rates persist over the entire forecast horizon, with a gradual acceleration in 2027-2028, Maxim Reshetnikov said. Nevertheless, domestic demand, primarily consumer demand, will remain the main driver for all three years. It is based on an increase in real wages and incomes of the population, the minister added.

According to him, the slowdown in economic growth is a consequence of a decrease in inflationary pressure, which is necessary to achieve balanced and sustainable growth rates in the coming years.

GDP growth is influenced by both external and internal factors. The continued sanctions restrictions lead to a decrease in energy exports, explained Mikhail Gordienko, Professor of the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Following this, the Ministry of Energy lowered expectations of foreign economic activity indicators. In particular, in 2026, exports will amount to $431.5 billion ($455.8 billion was expected in April), while imports will decrease to $308.5 billion (against $348 billion).

The decrease in the forecast is primarily due to the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, Mikhail Gordienko noted. From October 2024 to June 2025, the regulator kept the rate at a record level of 21% per annum. It was only in early summer that the regulator began a cycle of rate cuts — at the last meeting, it lowered it to 17%, the expert said.

How much can prices rise in 2026-2028

The rate in Russia remains high due to rising prices. However, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy, this year's inflation will be 6.8% by the end of the year, although in April the agency predicted 7.6%. At the same time, the ministry left unchanged expectations for the next three years — in 2026, inflation will drop to a target of 4% and reach a plateau by 2028.

Nevertheless, according to analysts interviewed by Izvestia, it will not be easy to achieve this goal — a more rapid slowdown in inflation is hindered by cooling demand in the economy and a strong ruble.

Investments in fixed assets (investments of companies in their development) in the first quarter of 2025 increased at a very high rate — 8.7%. However, according to forecasts, this indicator will decrease during the year, and growth will be only 1.7%. -0.5% is expected in 2026.

— Investments go to places where you can earn more. With a high key rate, it is more profitable to use financial instruments, that is, to invest in portfolio investments, than to create something in the real sector. Therefore, the high rate encourages companies and small businesses to freeze projects and development. The opposite is important for the state — the creation of really working enterprises that simultaneously act as tax payers, create jobs, and develop infrastructure," said Mikhail Gordienko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

What will be the dollar exchange rate?

According to the macro forecast, the dollar will cost 92.2 rubles on average in 2026 (according to the previous forecast, 100.2 rubles were expected). The American dollar will also trade at an average of 95.8 in 2027, and 100.1 in 2028. In addition, the department clarified that the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2025 will be 86.1 (against the 94.3 budgeted for this year).

— The forecast includes a gradual weakening of the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, the course itself will be stronger than it was planned in April under the scenario conditions. First of all, this will happen due to a stronger trade balance," the head of the Ministry of Economic Development explained.

The decrease in the forecast is due to the fact that in February the national currency began to strengthen sharply against the background of geopolitical factors and a decrease in import demand, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. However, the ruble was also positively affected by the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, in particular, a slowdown in inflation and consumer demand growth, including due to a reduction in lending, the expert added.

Despite a significant deterioration in the forecast for the "American" exchange rate, the Ministry of Energy practically did not change the indicators for oil quotes. In particular, in 2026, the agency expects the cost of Brent to be $70 per barrel (in April, $72), and Urals — $59 per barrel (in April, $61). In this case, the volatility is quite moderate.

Nevertheless, the budget rule remains the same, with a gradual reduction in the "cut-off price" by $1 a year from the current $60 per barrel to $55 by 2030, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the Moscow Financial Forum. This measure is aimed at reducing the dependence of the budget system on oil and gas revenues. According to the rule, if the price of Russian Urals crude oil is higher than the cut-off price ($60 per barrel), then the excess profits go into the "pot" (they are used to buy currency and gold). And if it is lower, then assets are sold from there to support the ruble.

What will happen to the labor market in 2026-2028

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, real wages by the end of 2025 will grow by 3.4%. Further dynamics will vary: in 2026, an increase of 2.4% is expected, in 2027 - by 3.9%, and in 2028 — by 3.2%.

As for the real disposable incomes of the population, adjusted for inflation, they will increase by 3.8% in 2025 (in the previous forecast - 6.2%). In the future, growth will be more modest: 2.1% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027, and 3% in 2028.

In addition, over the past few months, unemployment in Russia has been at a record historical low of 2.2%. By the end of the year, this figure will be 2.3%. The agency expects that next year the level will be at 2.6%, and by 2028 it will decrease to 2.3%.

According to the representative of the Ministry of Energy, there are three of its trends. The first of them is long—term, it is related to the overall balance of labor resources in the Russian economy, which will not be significantly increased in the long term.

— The second story is about cyclical fluctuations that depend on higher or lower economic growth rates. This has an impact on the unemployment rate, including through structural changes," the representative of the ministry said.

The third is the changes in the labor market itself. For example, platform-based employment, which allows you to largely smooth out fluctuations related to the unemployment rate. All these three plots explain that there will be some changes, but it is unlikely that it will reach the level before 2019 (for comparison, in 2018 the average annual rate was 4.7%), unless there is a serious decline in the economy, said the representative of the Ministry of Economy.

The increase in the unemployment rate next year will be facilitated by the actions of enterprises to optimize costs, including personnel, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. Nevertheless, the labor market remains in short supply due to demographic and structural factors, which is why, according to historical criteria, unemployment will remain low for the time being.

To balance the labor market, it is necessary to modernize production with a focus on automation, believes Mikhail Gordienko from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In this case, personnel should be retrained and reoriented to new directions for specific projects. According to the expert, the data on the unemployment rate may increase as a result. However, with a reduction in the key rate and inflation to a target of 4% by 2028, there should be an investment revival and an increase in demand for qualified personnel.