Shokhin predicted a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 15 by the end of the year.%

The Central Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate and by the end of 2025 it will amount to 15% per annum. This opinion was expressed by the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, at the First International Economic Forum in Tskhinvali.

"I think the Central Bank will most likely make two rate cuts, but not more than one percentage point each, and by the end of the year it will be 15%," TASS quoted him as saying.

Shokhin noted that many experts expected faster and more decisive steps on the part of the Central Bank in reducing the rate. However, according to him, the regulator will act gradually to assess the market reaction and the impact on inflation.

Shokhin also stressed that one of the risks is the possible influx of tens of trillions of rubles into the consumer market, accumulated on deposits during the high interest rate period, after its sharp decline. This may cause an increase in inflation, which, according to Shokhin, will lead to the need to raise the rate.

The expert added that in order for loans to become an effective investment tool, the key rate should be at the level of 10-12%.

"If everything goes as predicted by the Central Bank and the government, then in the second half of next year, borrowed funds will become a real resource for both turnover and investment, which is very important, including <...> for our republics of the North Caucasus," Shokhin concluded.

"We are budgeting for 2026 at the key level of 12-13%"

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On September 12, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered its key rate to 17% per annum. According to the regulator's forecast, in 2025, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 6.0-7.0%, and in 2026 it will return to the target level of 4.0%. In the future, inflation is expected to remain at the target level.

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