Active movement: what to invest in against the background of a decrease in the key to 17%

Banks will soon respond to the Central Bank's decision to reduce the key rate to 17% by reducing the yield on deposits — now is the last opportunity to fix high rates on them, experts say. In such conditions, mutual funds (mutual funds) are especially relevant, which guarantee profits near the key. In addition, investors can pay attention to the stock market — as the regulator's policy softens, investments there will increase in value more and more. Which assets can bring higher returns this year and whether regulators had other options for action at the rate meeting — in the Izvestia article.

How much did the Central Bank cut the rate in September

On September 12, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 1 percentage point to 17%, its press service reported. This decision was made against the background of the fact that inflation, although stable, is still above the target 4% per year. At the same time, expectations for price increases remain high, both from the public and from businesses. And this in itself can lead to a new round of their acceleration.

In July–August, prices rose faster than in the spring: in annual terms, this is 6.3% compared to 4.4% in the second quarter of 2025. At the same time, core inflation (excluding spikes in food and fuel prices) slowed slightly to 4.1%. In general, most stable price growth indicators are in the range of 4-6% per year. According to the Central Bank, as of September 8, annual inflation was 8.2%.

The Central Bank's strict policy (high key interest rate) helps to curb price growth, but in recent months, one-time factors have strongly influenced the statistics. The cost of utilities and fuel jumped noticeably, but vegetables and fruits fell in price more than usual in the summer. As a result, the picture turned out to be heterogeneous: some goods are becoming more expensive, others are falling in price.

— At the meeting of the board of directors, two options for resolving the key issue were considered — reducing it to 17% and maintaining it at 18%, — said Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Central Bank.

Now the economy is gradually slowing down and returning to a more balanced growth, the regulator's press service stressed. Business activity slowed down in the third quarter, but remains positive. At the same time, the situation in different industries is different: export-oriented sectors have noticeably "cooled down", and domestic demand is supported by rising household incomes and government spending. Consumer activity even accelerated slightly.

Tension remains in the labor market, the Central Bank noted. Companies still complain about the shortage of employees, although there are slightly fewer of them. Salaries are growing more slowly than in 2024, but still faster than labor productivity. The unemployment rate remains at a record low of about 2.2%. This creates a shortage of workers, which is why companies are forced to raise wages - as a result, Russians spend more money on consumption, which leads to an acceleration in prices.

The pro-inflationary risks so far outweigh the disinflationary ones in the medium term. The main reasons are that the economy is growing faster than a balanced level, high expectations of price growth and difficult foreign trade conditions.

If the global economy and oil prices continue to decline due to trade conflicts, this could raise inflation through a weakening ruble. At the same time, against the background of news about the Central Bank's decision to lower the key rate to only 17%, the dollar on Forex collapsed by more than 3 rubles to 81 rubles.

Geopolitical tensions remain an important source of uncertainty. A strong slowdown in domestic demand may be a deterrent to price growth. According to the Central Bank's forecast, due to the current monetary policy, inflation will decrease to 6-7% in 2025, return to the target 4% in 2026, and will remain near this level in subsequent years.

How will the Central Bank's decision affect the profitability of deposits

Deposit rates have already dropped to an average of 14% for periods from three to 12 months, according to data from the Finuslugi marketplace. In the near future, they may decrease by another 1 percentage point, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. For depositors, this is probably the last opportunity to record super-high deposit yields — they will only fall in the future.

"The dynamics are obvious — the trend towards cheaper deposits has already been launched," warned Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.

The trend towards easing key interest rates and lowering deposit rates will continue regardless of how quickly the Central Bank eases policy, said Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Cifra Broker. Banks will be happy to reduce the cost of funding for themselves in order to issue more loans in the future. Natalia Milchakova concluded that it is worth paying attention to deposits right now.

However, it is important to understand that deposits will remain an important savings tool for a very long time, said Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. The rates on them are double—digit - such a yield with low risks will support the popularity of deposits.

At the same time, there are tools on the market that allow you to earn income at or even above the key rate with low risks, Anton Pustovoitov, head of the fixed income Securities Management Department at Pervaya Management Company, recalled. The profitability of money market funds is decreasing more slowly than deposit rates, which makes them particularly profitable in the current environment.

While rates remain high, it is also possible to invest in ruble-denominated government bonds (OFZ), Natalia Milchakova added. But it should be borne in mind that interest rates on deposits in large Russian banks are sometimes higher than on government bonds, while the risks are no greater, and sometimes even less. At the same time, bonds issued by large companies can generate more income than deposits, but there is also a much higher probability of losses or technical defaults.

In addition, investors should pay attention to stocks. In the long term, they grow with a decrease in the key rate, explained Natalia Malykh, head of the stock analysis department at Finam. The best time to buy them is the beginning of a cycle of easing the regulator's policy. The Moscow Exchange index went up back in December 2024, when the Central Bank simply stopped raising the rate, and it became clear that the peak of tightening had passed. But by the end of the mitigation cycle, it's too late to buy stocks.

— More and more stocks look attractive at these levels. Investors should take a closer look at companies such as Lukoil, Headhunter, Novatek, Polyus Gold, and Cyanogen," advised Anton Kravchenko, Head of Equity Management at Pervaya Management Company.

It is worth buying Russian stocks only after a noticeable drop in prices, which may occur after the decision of the Central Bank, Natalia Milchakova noted. There is and will continue to be demand for them, but the market is highly dependent on geopolitics and US sanctions. However, the situation is still uncertain and risky, so now investments in stocks in any case look riskier than in bonds and deposits.

A rate cut of 1.5–2 percentage points may cause a moderate rally and push the Moscow Exchange index to 3000-3050 points, but much will depend on the Central Bank's comments on further policy, Finam noted. At the same time, Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA, notes that growth is not guaranteed: the market had set its expectations for a rate cut to 16%, so the index may well react negatively to the regulator's cautious decision.