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- It turns out badly: banks can lose up to 20% of funds on deposits due to the digital ruble
It turns out badly: banks can lose up to 20% of funds on deposits due to the digital ruble
The introduction of the digital ruble may lead to an outflow of deposits from banks, according to the material from the Higher School of Economics (Izvestia studied it). Analysts explain this by saying that Russians will prefer the new form of money because of the security and free transfers. Small financial organizations will suffer the most: initially, an increase in the digital ruble by 1 billion will reduce deposits by 0.8 billion rubles, while large ones will reduce deposits by 0.3 billion rubles. Experts believe that the outflow of funds from deposits may amount to 20% of their current level, which will affect the liquidity of banks. However, the authorities have taken measures to minimize the risks of deposit outflow, the Central Bank's press service recalled. For example, the Bank of Russia will not charge returns on digital rubles.
The impact of the digital ruble on bank deposits
The spread of the digital ruble may threaten banks with an outflow of deposits, according to a report by experts from the Higher School of Economics published in the Central Bank's journal Monetary Policy. At the same time, the effect is heterogeneous and depends on the size of the credit institution.
Initially, for small banks, an increase in the digital ruble by 1 billion on average can reduce deposits by 0.8 billion rubles, and for large ones — by 0.3 billion. Due to the larger volume of assets, the latter are less sensitive to the spread of a new form of national currency, the article notes. The authors are also confident that the negative effect of the digital ruble will gradually fade.
The digital ruble is a new form of national currency. Its issuer will be the Bank of Russia. Digital rubles are exchanged for cash and non-cash in a 1:1 ratio, without any discount. They will not be in an individual's bank account, but in a wallet on the Central Bank's platform. The mass launch of the digital ruble was supposed to begin on July 1, 2025, but the Central Bank postponed it to next year.
Troubled banks with high overdue loans are more vulnerable to the outflow of deposits in the digital ruble. This is due to customers' fears of losing their funds in the event of revocation of licenses from such organizations, the material says.
"The process of transition to a new form of money will be gradual, which will give banks time to adapt their business models to the new realities of the financial market," it says. At the same time, the authors believe that the Central Bank should consider the possibility of introducing support measures for financial organizations most at risk of deposit outflow in order to ensure the stability of the system as a whole.
The introduction of the digital ruble is really capable of changing the structure of bank deposits, said Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. The outflow of funds from deposits can range from 5 to 20% of their current level, especially in the first years after the introduction of the new payment method, he said.
As of July 1, 2025, according to the Central Bank, the amount of funds of Russians in banks amounted to 60.3 trillion rubles.
— The Bank of Russia will not charge interest on digital rubles. The opportunity to earn income will remain an advantage of bank deposits and other financial instruments. In addition, the amount of replenishment of the digital ruble account from your bank account will be limited to 300 thousand rubles per month. Together, this minimizes the risk of deposit outflow," the Central Bank told Izvestia.
Why Russians may prefer the digital ruble to deposits
The digital ruble can indeed contribute to the outflow of funds from the banking system, but first of all it will not affect deposits, but funds in the current accounts of individuals and legal entities, says Alexey Voylukov, MBA professor of business practice in digital finance at the Presidential Academy, former vice president of the Association of Banks of Russia. According to his estimates, within three years after the full launch of the new form of money, about 10 trillion rubles may be transferred to such accounts.
The need to keep significant amounts on deposits in banks may decrease slightly if the digital ruble is perceived as a convenient, secure and effective means of settlement and storage of funds, said Alexander Potavin from Finam. At the same time, unlike deposits, it is still not a means of saving against inflation, he added.
The digital ruble has a number of advantages: security and reliability, free transactions, convenience and speed of transfers, said Maria Ermilova, International Financial Adviser, Associate Professor of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
In addition, if the bank's license is revoked, it will not affect the safety of digital rubles. While the deposit insurance system guarantees a refund of the deposit only in the amount not exceeding 1.4 million rubles.
According to a VTB survey, almost half of Russians (46%) are ready to transfer funds to digital rubles on one condition or another.
Risks for banks due to deposit outflow
First of all, the outflow of funds will affect the current accounts of individuals and enterprises, which will reduce the amount of funds that banks currently use for lending and other operations, said Alexander Potavin from Finam. This will lead to a decrease in their profitability and an increase in financial risks, he believes.
— The main risk for banks is a lack of liquidity. In order to retain customers, financial organizations will be forced to raise deposit rates and look for new competitive products," believes Alexey Voylukov from the Presidential Academy.
Reducing the amount of capital raised may make it difficult to fulfill obligations and issue loans, then it will be necessary to attract expensive alternative resources (borrowed funds), which will increase costs, said Maria Ermilova from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
In general, the digital ruble can significantly change the Russian economy by increasing the transparency of financial transactions and the efficiency of payment systems, said Sofia Glavina, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics at RUDN University. According to the National Rating Agency (NRA), by 2031, the new form of money will be able to bring annual benefits to the Russian economy of up to 260 billion rubles.
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