Severe weather in autumn 2025: forecasts for September, October, November
Some forecasters predict a sharp cold snap starting in September 2025, while others predict a warm autumn in most regions of Russia. It is not possible to give accurate forecasts for October and November yet, they will become known closer to the dates. But the forecast for the first half of September is likely to be justified. What the weather will be like on September 1 in Moscow and other regions, as well as preliminary forecasts for October and November, can be found in the Izvestia article.
What will the weather be like on September 1 in Moscow and by region
The weather in Moscow will be sunny and warm on Knowledge Day. According to the Gismeteo service, temperatures from +17 to +23 degrees are expected on September 1. The wind is from the north with a speed of 2 m/s, gusts can reach 6 m/s. According to the forecast of Yandex Weather, the air temperature in the morning will be +18 degrees. It will be sunny, the wind is north-westerly, 2 m/s, humidity is 78%. It will warm up to +24 degrees in the afternoon, humidity will drop to 55%, and the wind will be the same. It will be cloudy, but with some clarifications. On the evening of September 1, the temperature will drop to +22 degrees. The wind will change direction to the southwest, gusts are still 2 m/s, and humidity is 61%. At any time of the day, according to Yandex Weather forecasts, the sensations will coincide with the actual temperature on the thermometer columns.
September 1 will also be warm in St. Petersburg. Yandex Weather forecasts for this date from +16 degrees in the morning and up to +21 degrees in the afternoon. The sun is expected, but there will be more clouds on this day.
Light rain is forecast in Novosibirsk on Knowledge Day. It will start in the morning and continue in the afternoon. It won't rain in the evening, but it may rain again at night. The air temperature will be +14 degrees in the morning, +18 degrees in the afternoon, and +17 degrees in the evening.
It will rain a little all day in Yekaterinburg. But it will be warm: from +13 degrees to +19.
Clear and warm weather is expected in Kazan on September 1. +15 degrees is forecast in the morning and evening, and +25 degrees in the afternoon.
It will also be warm in Nizhny Novgorod: up to +23 degrees with the sun.
In Krasnodar, Knowledge Day will be truly summer. The temperature will reach +34 degrees, and the sun is forecast for the whole day.
Moscow weather forecast for autumn 2025
In the capital, this autumn promises to be hotter than usual, but without repeating the values of last year, meteorologists from Yandex Weather told TASS. Experts predict that September and October will be warmer than normal and average in recent years, while November will be the warmest in the last decade.
According to the World Weather service, it will be mostly sunny in September, with an average air temperature of +17 degrees. In Phobos, "summer" weather is forecast for early September, on some days the air may warm up to +24... +27. In October, there will be less sun, and the average temperature will drop to +8 degrees. Although the temperature will reach +16 degrees in the daytime at the beginning of the month, it will drop to +2 degrees in the daytime at the end of October. November is expected to be cloudy. In the first half of the month it will be about +6 degrees during the day, in the second — +2.
Despite the dry forecast from World Weather, Yandex Weather experts predict rain.
"After the unusually dry autumn of 2024, many megacities are returning to normal in 2025 - the average over the past 30 years. A rainy "recovery" awaits Moscow," weather forecasters told Yandex Weather.
What will autumn 2025 look like in St. Petersburg?
It will be warmer than usual in St. Petersburg, and there is even a possibility of new records for average seasonal and monthly temperatures, Yandex Weather said in a statement.
The first month of autumn in the cultural capital is expected to be sunny and warm, with an average air temperature of +17 degrees, according to World Weather data. On some days, the air will warm up to +22 degrees. The lowest daytime temperature in September is +14 degrees. October will be cloudy, but with some clarifications. The average air temperature will be +9 degrees. +4 degrees is forecast for the last month of autumn. It will be cloudy, but no rain.
However, Yandex Weather predicts precipitation for September, October and November. These months will be wetter than last year, the company says.
When will Indian summer be in the fall of 2025
According to meteorologist Alexander Sergeev, Indian summer is not worth waiting for this year.
"The return of summer warmth in September is possible, but so far unlikely. Updated climate models have shown that the Arctic air masses have begun to move more actively to the south than previously assumed. This means that Atlantic cyclones will bring not only rains, but also sudden changes in atmospheric pressure. The absence of a stable anticyclone excludes a prolonged Indian summer," the expert explained in an interview with News.ru .
Instead of a smooth transition to autumn, Russians are waiting for a sharp cold snap and unstable pressure, Sergeyev said.
However, Indian summer is forecast in some regions. For example, Indian summer will be in the capital in early September, Mikhail Tolstykh, a professor at the MIPT Phystech School of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science and an employee of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, told Evening Moscow. According to him, the multi-model probabilistic forecast of the World Meteorological Organization for the first two weeks of September indicates an average air temperature near or slightly above the climatic norm.
Relying on World Weather data on air temperature, we can say that Indian summer will also take place in St. Petersburg.
When will the rainy season start in autumn 2025
Rains are expected in Moscow, Kazan, Samara, Ufa, Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Volgograd and Perm. This is promised by the weather forecasters of Yandex. Weather.
Meteorologist Mikhail Semenov says it will rain in September.
"Current forecasts indicate that September will be rich in precipitation. Combined with low temperatures on some days, this will create a feeling of very unpleasant, dank weather, which is conducive to colds," Mikhail Semenov said in a conversation with URA.RU .
Nevertheless, according to Yandex Weather, September in Moscow will be drier than usual, October — 1.5 times drier than last year, November — within the normal range.
In St. Petersburg, according to the service, all three months of autumn will be wetter than in 2024.
When will the frosts hit in the fall of 2025
It is difficult to predict the exact date when the temperature will drop to 0 degrees and below. However, the first frosts have already occurred in Russia. They were recorded on August 22nd on the Russian Plain. Evgeny Tishkovets, a specialist at the Phobos weather center, noted that the thermometer showed -2.5 degrees in the west of Vologda region, -0.7 degrees in the village of Konevo in the south of the Arkhangelsk region, -1.2 degrees in Verkhnyaya Toima, -0.1 degrees in Dvinsky Bereznik and Koinas. In Vinnytsa in the east of the Leningrad region and Ladva in the south of Karelia, the air cooled to -0.1 degrees.
In Moscow, the first frosts should be expected in the second half of October. "October will be a transitional month. If warm days up to +15 degrees are still possible in the first decade, then the first frosts should be expected by the end of the month," said Tatyana Pozdnyakova, scientific director of the Moscow Meteorological Bureau.
When will the first snow fall in the fall of 2025
Snow is expected in Russia in autumn. According to forecasters, the first snow will not fall in any region in winter. However, there is some good news: no snow is forecast in September.
So, at the junction of October and November, snow, according to Yandex Weather forecasts, is expected in Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Perm. At the same time, there will be more snow in the last city in autumn than in the previous one.
Residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Ufa and Chelyabinsk should expect the first snow in the third month of autumn. In St. Petersburg, 1.5 times more snow is expected in autumn than a year earlier. And in Chelyabinsk, at the end of the season, the amount of snow will be close to the climatic norm, but twice as much as it fell in the last dry autumn.
At the junction of November and December, snow will arrive in Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd and Krasnodar.
Weather forecasts for September, October, November 2025 by region
The autumn of 2025 in Moscow promises to be hotter than usual, but without repeating the values of last year, Yandex Weather promises. September and October will be warmer than normal and average in recent years, although the first month of autumn will be cooler than in 2024. The average temperature this September is +17 degrees, in October — +8 degrees. November, experts say, will be the warmest in the last decade. The average temperature this month, according to World Weather, is +4 degrees.
The amount of precipitation will be close to the climatic norm and the level of last year, but the distribution by month will be uneven. September will be slightly drier than usual, but twice as humid as the driest in 2024, October - 1.5 times drier than last year, November — within the normal range.
In St. Petersburg in September, average temperatures are forecast above the climatic norm, but below last year's. The average air temperature will be +17 degrees. In October and November, average temperatures will be significantly higher than in the last 5-10 years. At the same time, October 2025 will be similar to the previous one. And November may become the warmest in the last 30 years. In October it will be about +9 degrees in the afternoon, in November it will be +4 degrees.
September in the cultural capital will be noticeably wetter than a year earlier. October is forecast to be almost twice as rainy as the previous one. November will bring precipitation above the norm and the average values of recent years. In general, almost 1.5 times more rain and snow is expected in autumn than a year earlier, according to Yandex Weather.
In Voronezh, autumn will be warmer than normal and similar in temperature to 2024. The average temperature in September will be +22 degrees, in October — +12 degrees, and in November — +5 degrees. At the same time, November may become the warmest in the last 5-10 years.
The season in Voronezh will be slightly drier than the climatic norm, but 1.5 times wetter than in the previous dry autumn.
It will be warm in Krasnodar in the fall and even warmer than normal. Although September will be colder than last year, November, on the contrary, will be warmer compared to 2024. An average of +27 degrees is expected in September, +19 in October, and +12 in November.
There won't be much precipitation. According to forecasts, September will be rainy, and November, on the contrary, will be drier than last year.
In Rostov-on-Don, the average seasonal temperatures should be higher than long-term indicators, but close to last year's. At the same time, September 2025 will be cooler than last year. The temperature is expected to be +26 degrees, in October — +16, in November — +8.
Precipitation will be distributed unevenly. In September, against the background of a return to the climatic norm, about 38-40 mm of precipitation will fall in the city instead of 5 mm a year earlier. October will also get noticeably more rain than last year. And November may become dry.
Autumn in Volgograd will be one of the warmest in the last 30 years, with a noticeable excess of the norm in all months. In September, the average temperature will be +23 degrees, in October — +14, in November — +5.
September will bring about 30 mm of rain, 15 times more than a year earlier. October will be slightly drier than usual, but November will be drier than the previous year.
September in Nizhny Novgorod will be warmer than the climatic norm, with an average of +17 degrees. October will be the hottest in the last five years (about +10 degrees), and November — in ten years (+4 degrees).
Samara may have the warmest autumn in at least the last 30 years. It averages +20 degrees in September, +14 in October, and +3 in November. Although Yandex Weather analysts predict that November could be the hottest in ten years.
There will be more rain and snow than in 2024. For example, 50 mm of precipitation is forecast in September instead of last year's 2 mm.
Kazan is also expecting a record warm autumn. It's +17 degrees in September, +10 degrees in October, and +3 degrees in November.
Ufa may experience the warmest September and October in the last five years. In September, the average temperature will be +17 degrees, in October — +9, in November — +2.
Precipitation will exceed last year's figures. For example, up to 54 mm of rain is expected in September, which is about 7.5 times more than last year's figures.
Perm is forecast to have the warmest autumn in at least 30 years. The average temperature in the first month of autumn will be +15, in the second — +7, and in the third — 0.
Rain and snow are forecast to double what fell in the fall of 2024. Precipitation will remain within the long–term average, although 1.5-2 times more rain is forecast in September and October than last year.
Yekaterinburg residents will experience one of the warmest autumns in 30 years. +15 degrees is expected in September. October and November will be noticeably warmer than the climatic norm, +8 in October and 0 in November.
But a lot of precipitation is expected. This autumn will be the wettest in the last five years.
Autumn in Chelyabinsk will also be warm. +17 degrees is expected in September, +9 degrees in October, and -1 degree in November.
The amount of rain and snow will be close to the climatic norm, but twice as much as it fell in the last dry autumn.
Siberia will also be covered by heat. Novosibirsk will be +15 in September, +7 in October, and -4 in November. However, Yandex Weather believes that the last month of autumn will be particularly notable for its high temperatures.
Although November will be the wettest month.
Krasnoyarsk expects +17 in September, +7 in October, and -3 in November.
October will be warmer than normal in autumn in Omsk — +8 degrees. +15 is expected in September and -3 in November.
Precipitation is forecast to be within the normal range, but there will be more than in 2024.
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