The excess of integration: the European course in the Balkans has reached a dead end
The process of European integration in the Western Balkans is stalling. Only Montenegro can join the union in the coming years, Izvestia found out. The authorities of North Macedonia, according to the EU, are not coping with corruption, Albania has not solved the problem of crime. Bosnia and Herzegovina's European prospects have been virtually nullified due to the political crisis, the Republika Srpska parliament told Izvestia. In the key country of the region, Serbia— the number of eurosceptics is growing due to pressure from Brussels, analysts say. Therefore, the West is trying to bring the leadership under their control to power in Belgrade. About why the EU is losing influence in the Balkans and what are the prospects for Ukraine's accession to the union against this background — in the Izvestia article.
Who in the Balkans still has a chance to join the EU
Only one country in the Western Balkans, Montenegro, may join the EU in the coming years. The rest of the region's states are facing problems in negotiations with Brussels and growing internal opposition to European integration.
Montenegro expects to complete negotiations by the end of 2026, its MP Nada Lakovic told Izvestia. Eventually, Podgorica plans to join the European Union in 2028.
— Montenegro aims to complete the EU accession process as early as possible, ideally before 2028. The Government and relevant institutions are accelerating reforms and prioritizing measures that will allow us to quickly close the remaining chapters of the negotiations. We have an ambitious plan to complete all negotiations by the end of 2026, and so far everything is going according to plan. We believe that thanks to the political will and support of European partners, it is possible to complete the accession process earlier," the parliamentarian told Izvestia.
Montenegro was one of the first countries in the region to receive EU candidate status. The countries have passed a significant part of the integration path, fulfilling most of the requirements of Brussels. Montenegro also joined NATO in 2017.
However, Podgorica is now facing certain problems, both internal (difficulties with reforms) and external (for example, Croatia could potentially block its entry, including due to territorial disputes), INF program coordinator Milan Lazovich told Izvestia.
— Despite this, Montenegro will still remain the most likely candidate for membership out of all the states in the region. Another question is how soon this will happen and how ready the Montenegrins themselves, including government officials, are for it. The process can obviously take a long time," the expert emphasized.
After all, there is a consensus among the population and political elites in Montenegro about the orientation towards joining the EU as soon as possible. Brussels has no serious contradictions with the current government of the country, Ekaterina Entina, director of the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
The EU enlargement crisis in the Balkans
Other countries in the region, by contrast, face challenges on their way to EU membership. The process in Bosnia and Herzegovina has slowed down in the last decade. It is impossible to predict when BiH will become a full member of the EU or whether it will become one at all, Srdjan Mazalica, a member of the Assembly of Republika Srpska (Parliament), told Izvestia. In addition, with the support of Brussels, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina dismissed RS President Milorad Dodik from office, which caused a political crisis.
— The EU does not have the political will to accept states with internal conflicts into its ranks, and most of the countries of the Western Balkans are just like that. In this regard, Bosnia and Herzegovina is the worst candidate, since Bosnian Muslims stubbornly strive to create a unitary state with the support of the leading countries of the collective West, whose actions are mostly destructive. To be honest, I do not believe that Bosnia and Herzegovina will ever become a member of the EU," the politician said.
Ekaterina Entina emphasizes that Bosnia and Herzegovina is the furthest away from joining the EU among the countries of the Western Balkans due to the complete dysfunctionality of the state. Political tensions are currently rising between the entities.
View of Skopje, the capital of North Macedonia
North Macedonia has been waiting for 25 years to join the EU, but the process is being blocked by neighboring countries Greece and Bulgaria (again, historical and territorial issues), the republic's Prime Minister Christian Mickoski told Izvestia earlier. For the sake of Brussels, the Balkan republic even changed its name — in 2019, the republic officially became North Macedonia. But that didn't help either: the latest EU report on Skopje's accession negotiations talks about a high risk of corruption, which makes it impossible to speed up the process.
Brussels itself, through the integration process, has given power to the elites who are engaged in corruption. At the same time, this report includes attempts to undermine the position of the Macedonian language and the country's identity, a demand promoted by the ruling parties of Northern Macedonia, Dimitar Apasiev, leader of the Levitsa parliamentary party, told Izvestia. Thus, Sofia does not recognize the right of the Macedonian language to exist, considering it a "dialect of Bulgarian." There are other risks.
— Given the current trajectory of the EU's development and the surrounding circumstances, the price of integration is no longer just political. The growing demands are also damaging our national economy," said a member of the Parliament of Northern Macedonia.
The European Commission told Izvestia in a streamlined manner that joining the EU is a process based on achievements. Brussels "does not set a time frame for the candidate countries, but supports their desire to join the association by providing all necessary political, economic and technical support." It remains to be seen exactly how these achievements will be evaluated.
Opponents of European integration
In another part of the Western Balkans, European integration is hindered not by problems with neighbors, but rather by deep internal contradictions. Protests continue in the key country of the region, Serbia. According to the Russian Ambassador to Belgrade, Alexander Botan-Kharchenko, the EU is seeking to replace President Alexander Vucic with a controlled leader. Earlier, Izvestia wrote that Britain and Germany are demanding that pro-Russian politicians be removed from the Serbian government and direct flights and visa-free travel with the Russian Federation be curtailed.
Although Serbian officials officially continue to declare their intention to join the EU, in fact, the process of European integration is slowing down. Brussels remains dissatisfied with Belgrade's general foreign policy line on maintaining relations with Russia, refusing to join sanctions against it, unwillingness to officially recognize Kosovo's independence, as well as the level of "rights and freedoms" in Serbia: we are talking about the allegedly authoritarian regime of Alexander Vucic with restrictions on freedom of speech.
View of the city of Zemun in Belgrade, Serbia
— In general, I consider the goal and possibility of Serbia joining the EU to be a utopia. This is impossible due to the fact that Belgrade will not comply with the conditions of Brussels, contrary to the national interests of Serbia. That is, the process itself seems to be going on, but it's more like an appearance. There is a clear stagnation here," Lazovich said.
Ekaterina Entina also draws attention to the growing number of Eurosceptics in Serbia. In her opinion, this is due to Brussels' demands for recognition of Kosovo, as well as the fact that the country objectively receives quite large benefits from its multi-vector cooperation, which will have to be terminated to one degree or another if it joins the EU's common foreign policy.
Common problems of European integration and Ukraine's chances
In addition to Montenegro, a high level of support for European integration is observed in Albania and the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo. However, these countries also have problems. For example, Albania has not solved the problem of the so-called black market and organized crime. And the independence of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo is not recognized by five EU countries: Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Cyprus and Greece. And this situation is unlikely to change in the coming years.
In fact, all the same problems of the Western Balkans are relevant to one degree or another for all other potential members. A total of nine countries have now been named as EU candidates. In addition to the Western Balkan states, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Turkey have been granted such status — the latter has been awaiting accession since 1999 (the country applied for membership in 1987).
European integration is stalling in all these countries one way or another. The current Georgian authorities have slowed down the process by adopting controversial decisions from the point of view of Brussels, for example, the law on foreign agents. Thus, negotiations have been suspended until 2028. There is no public consensus in Moldova: amendments to the Constitution on European integration were supported by only 50.35% of those who voted in a referendum in 2024. Hungary still opposes Ukraine's membership in the EU due to Kiev's violation of the rights of Transcarpathian Hungarians, including forced mobilization. And this is not to mention European requirements in general — for example, the existence of corruption in Ukraine is recognized in both Brussels and Washington. The recent scandal involving restrictions on the powers of the European anti-corruption authorities NABU and SAPO almost deprived Kiev of European financial support.
Dissatisfaction with European integration within the candidate countries is unwittingly fueled by Brussels itself, promoting liberal values in the member countries to the detriment of traditional ones, as well as economic reforms to the detriment of the social sphere. In the first case, this is, for example, the promotion of the LGBT agenda (the movement is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation), in the second, in particular, the rejection of Russian energy resources, which has inflated gas and electricity prices for ordinary Europeans. In addition, Brussels practices blocking funds from euro funds due to non-fulfillment of its requirements. Hungary has officially lost access to more than €1 billion in aid due to an ongoing dispute over violations of the rule of law. Poland was blocked from accessing due to a "controversial" judicial reform.
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