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- We went to the price: why the exchange value of the AI-95 in Primorye soared by a third
We went to the price: why the exchange value of the AI-95 in Primorye soared by a third
The reasons for the aggravated fuel crisis in the Far East were the lack of sufficient processing capacity and expensive logistics. The exchange price of AI-95 gasoline in Primorye has increased by 30% since the beginning of June, exceeding 100 thousand rubles per ton. At the same time, the volume of exchange sales from two refineries, where the main gasoline supplies to the region come from, Komsomolsky and Angarsky, decreased by 25-57% during the same time. Representatives of the independent fuel market of Primorsky Krai appealed to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak with a request to increase the volume of gasoline sales on the stock exchange from these plants, as well as to resolve the issue of disparity in wholesale and retail prices.
Why has the fuel crisis worsened in Primorye
On August 21, the Primorsky Fuel Union (PTS) sent an appeal to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and the Federal Antimonopoly Service. In the letter (Izvestia has it) Concern was expressed about the disparity in wholesale and retail prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline in the fuel market of the region, as well as a significant reduction in sales of these fuels from refineries located in the Far East and Eastern Siberia. In particular, from Komsomolsk Oil Refinery and Angarsk Petrochemical Company.
As noted in a letter from representatives of the independent retail business of the region, from June 2 to August 20, sales of AI-92 on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange from the Komsomolsk Refinery fell by 30%, from 600 to 420 tons, while the price increased by 32%, to 93.8 thousand rubles per ton (with a railway tariff). From the Angarsk NHK, the volumes sold decreased by 57%, from 840 to 360 tons, and the price increased by 28.4%, to 92.88 thousand rubles per ton.
As for AI-95, its sales volumes from the Komsomolsk Refinery did not change and remained at 360 tons per day, but the price increased by 31.3% to 97.12 thousand rubles per ton. But with the Angarsk NHK, sales volumes decreased by 25%, from 240 to 180 tons, prices increased by 30%, to 100.8 thousand rubles per ton.
Compared to other regions, fuel supply in the Far East remains significantly lower (the difference in sales volumes compared to plants located in Siberia is five to six times), which leads to non-market competition conditions and puts additional price pressure on independent gas stations, the letter says.
According to the Primorsky Fuel Union, the price difference (excluding the railway tariff) at the Komsomolsk refinery compared to the prices of the Siberian refineries — Omsk and Ufa — for AI-92 is 20.4% and 18%, respectively, for AI-95 — 14.5% and 11.2%.
According to Vladimir Chirskov, President of the PTS, it was at the Komsomolsk Refinery that the highest exchange prices were recorded among all comparable plants, and this requires special attention, taking into account the fact that participants in the fuel market of Primorsky Krai are focused specifically on purchases from the Komsomolsk Refinery.
He notes that currently there are 295 gas stations operating in the region, 130 of which belong to the Independent Oil and Gas Company (NOC). Eduard Khudainatov's NOC owns the Khabarovsk Oil Refinery in the Far East.
According to the president of the PTS, with the exchange price for AI-92 from the Komsomolsk refinery at 93.82 thousand rubles per ton, the cost of a liter of gasoline should be 69.9 rubles, and at the NOC gas station it costs 61.73 rubles. At the AI-95 exchange price of 97.12 thousand rubles per ton, a liter should cost 72.35 rubles, and at the NOC gas station it costs 62.6 rubles.
— The retail price at independent gas stations should be at least 10 rubles per liter higher than at NOC gas stations in order to cover their own costs and not work at a loss. This difference in price is perceived by consumers as excessive, which leads to an outflow of customers and a decrease in sales volumes at independent gas stations," emphasizes Vladimir Chirskov.
According to him, AI-92 currently costs 74-77 rubles per liter at independent gas stations, and AI-95 costs 78-80 rubles.
The office of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Izvestia that they had not yet received the letter. The Ministry of Energy did not provide an immediate comment.
What are the causes of the fuel crisis?
The FAS press service told Izvestia that the service is currently analyzing the prices of about 12,000 gas stations, which include both gas stations of vertically integrated companies and independent ones, including in the Primorsky Territory.
"In case of violations of antimonopoly legislation, the agency takes response measures," they noted.
At the same time, the FAS recalled that the service had initiated a case against Gazprom GNP Sales LLC — in May-June 2025, the company reduced gasoline sales on the stock exchange: AI-92 — by 74%, AI-95 — by 50%. Also, at the moment, four antimonopoly cases are being considered in the territorial authorities for unjustified price increases at gas stations.
Izvestia's source in the industry notes that the situation in Primorye is familiar to all representatives of the independent fuel market.
— Firstly, at the beginning of the summer, many factories were under repair, which is why sales volumes decreased. In August, four large factories located in the European part of the country were severely affected by drones. And the entire fuel market of the country operates as a single mechanism. The problem of the lack of gasoline is now familiar to all regions. In the south, all oil depots are "dry," the source notes.
He recalls that pricing at gas stations of vertically integrated companies operates on the principle of "inflation minus".
— Oil companies, at the request of regulators, are trying to keep prices down. Hence the disparity," says the source.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, reducing supplies amid rising demand is the normal behavior of producers who control the market.
CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media) Tamara Safonova recalls that according to the schedule of maintenance work at the primary oil refining plants, repairs were planned in August-September at the Angarsk NHK and in September at the Komsomolsk refinery.
The average monthly combined potential volume of gasoline production at Angarsk NHK and Komsomolsk Refinery can be estimated at about 150 thousand tons, but gasoline production may also decrease during repairs at primary processing plants.
At the same time, Tamara Safonova notes that the need to provide fuel to the Far Eastern regions may lead to a reduction in volumes presented on the stock exchange amid the high demand for gasoline in other regions of Russia.
What are the ways to solve the problem?
Last week, at a meeting with Alexander Novak, it was decided to completely ban gasoline exports from Russia until the end of September. And they decided to buy the missing volumes of fuel for the domestic market from Belarusian manufacturers, Izvestia wrote.
Olga Spekhova, a spokeswoman for Belneftekhim Concern, told Izvestia that oil products from Belarusian refineries for supply to Russia are constantly represented on the stock exchange.
— In the second half of August, there was an increase in interest in the supply of Belarusian petroleum products to the Russian market. The Belarusian side responds promptly and tries to meet the increasing demand, taking into account economic efficiency," said the representative of the Belarusian refineries.
In turn, Natalia Yakovenko, Senior Managing Director for the petroleum Products and Logistics market at the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, told Izvestia that the volume of gasoline sales produced in Belarus did not exceed 1% of the total monthly gasoline sales: 0.3% in January, 0% in February—March, 0.1% in May, and 0.1% in June. 0.2%, in July — 1%, in August (as of August 20) — 0.7%.
According to a source in the Izvestia market, the main volumes that will arrive on the Russian market no earlier than mid-September will be under direct contracts with oil companies. With this in mind, the interlocutor noted, the situation on the fuel market will be very difficult throughout Russia until October.
According to Sergey Tereshkin from Open Oil Market, the risks of short supply in the fuel market can be stopped only by increasing the standards of exchange sales, as well as fines for non-compliance. Increasing supplies to the stock exchange should be more profitable than reducing them, the expert believes.
The simplest and most effective way to regulate gasoline prices is to temporarily reduce the excise tax rate, which can affect lower prices for consumers and ensure that refineries remain efficient, Tamara Safonova believes.
"Currently, the excise tax rate for fifth—class gasoline is 17,088 rubles per ton, for diesel fuel — 12,120 rubles per ton, and the difference is an additional driver of the excess cost of gasoline relative to diesel fuel," she recalls.
Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, in turn, emphasizes that the situation in the Far East needs to be addressed comprehensively, including through the expansion of capacities and logistical capabilities.
She recalls that two projects are currently under development at once — on Sakhalin, which is being implemented by Gazprom, and in the Khabarovsk Territory, which is being developed by an independent oil company. Earlier, the Federation Council announced the need to build an oil product pipeline from the Omsk refinery to the Far East. He was supposed to solve the region's fuel supply problem, unload the railway tracks for coal transportation and allow for increased supplies to the Asia-Pacific countries, Izvestia wrote. However, the Ministry of Energy considered that the capacity of the Omsk refinery would not be enough for this and it was necessary to extend the pipe to the west.
However, the oil product pipeline is the cheapest compared to supplies by road and by rail. Currently, only the railway tariff from Angarsk to Primorye can be about 12 thousand rubles per ton, Ekaterina Kosareva concluded.
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