The inevitable tension: Chisinau will escalate with Gagauzia and Transnistria
Chisinau will aggravate relations with Transnistria and Gagauzia after the September 28 elections, the Moldovan parliament and the Pobeda opposition bloc are confident. They told Izvestia that the authorities are already harshly dispersing the protests and strengthening their powers. In particular, the illegally approved new composition of the Constitutional Court will make it easy to initiate the abolition of Gagauzia's autonomy. Economic pressure on Transnistria will also continue, where the energy crisis has not yet been resolved due to the pro-European course of the authorities. The rating of Maya Sandu's ruling party continues to decline, and she will not remain without competitors. Despite the CEC's refusal to register Pobeda, another opposition force will participate in the elections. This bloc also includes the party of ex-President Igor Dodon.
Pressure on Gagauzia and Transnistria will increase
The situation in Moldova is heating up a month before the parliamentary elections. "Everyone was dragged into paddy wagons indiscriminately: young people, pensioners. Even animators in full—length costumes of fairy-tale characters got hurt," Izvestia is told in the Pobeda block, commenting on the latest protests due to the actions of the authorities.
At the same time, the right to hold meetings in public places is enshrined in the Constitution of Moldova. And despite the harsh crackdown, residents are already preparing for a new large-scale protest. Representatives of the country's opposition force, the Victory bloc, called on citizens to take part in anti—government demonstrations on August 23.
Earlier, mass discontent was provoked by the verdict of the elected head of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Hutsul, whose political position strongly differed from the views of the pro-European ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party. As a result, on August 5, the court gave Hutsul seven years for financing the Shor party, which is banned in Moldova. The government does not hesitate to suppress the people's will by persecuting pro-Russian politicians, and after the elections, if the ruling forces win, the pressure on the regions that are "problematic" for Chisinau will only increase.
— We are sure that after the elections the government will try to put even more pressure on both Gagauzia and Transnistria. We can already see that Chisinau is not seeking dialogue, but is acting solely through intimidation and repression. <...> The situation with Transnistria is similar: instead of negotiations and the search for peaceful solutions, the Sandu government will escalate tensions," Marina Tauber, vice chairman of Pobeda, told Izvestia.
Member of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova Marina Tauber
As for Gagauzia, Chisinau is rapidly moving towards the abolition of its autonomy. According to the "Code of Gagauzia" (Article 71.3), the position of Bashkan (head) becomes vacant if he is unable to perform his duties for more than 60 days. After that, the National Assembly must appoint the election of a new head — they will be held within three months "from the date of the vacancy."
Obviously, Chisinau will not have time to appoint its own person before the elections, but this may well happen after. Certain conditions have already been created: on August 17, the new composition of the Constitutional Court of Moldova was approved. The process, by the way, was accompanied by opposition protests both in the meeting room and in front of the parliament building. A number of judges were to be appointed by deputies of the next convocation, rather than by the current parliament, where the PAS is in the majority. By the way, one of them is former PAS deputy Chairman Sergei Litvinenko.
— We have a latent integration with Romania. Citizens with Romanian passports, Romanian laws everywhere, education standards, and so on. Certain competencies are being taken away from the civil autonomy (for example, the Constitutional Court of Moldova has already deprived Gagauzia of the authority to appoint an autonomous prosecutor. — Izvestia). Next, the PAS can apply to the Constitutional Court, where some of the judges are Romanian citizens and are appointed by them, for compliance with the law on the special legal status of Gagauzia with the constitution, that is, aspirations for European integration," Moldovan MP Bogdan Cirdea tells Izvestia.
The arguments will include the Gagauz people's aspirations to join the EAEU customs Union, ties with the Kremlin — Hutsul has repeatedly met with the Russian leadership, including Russian President Vladimir Putin — and even the activities of the recognized unconstitutional Shor party, the deputy explained. Other politicians associated with Pobeda were also persecuted for their pro-Russian views. Marina Tauber also faces a sentence of 13 years in prison with the deprivation of the right to hold public office.
The situation with Transnistria, which is not under Chisinau's control, is even more complicated. Due to the position of Ukraine and the European Union as a whole, gas transit to the unrecognized republic was stopped on January 1. At the same time, Chisinau has been rejecting available Russian energy resources all this time, following the course of official Brussels. As a result, an energy crisis broke out in the PMR, and the growth of already high prices accelerated.
The problem, although still partially solved, was solved by the Russian side. On February 14, Pridnestrovie began receiving gas from a Russian loan with the organizational support of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation through a Hungarian company. However, even this summer, Pridnestrovian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky noted that the situation in the region's energy sector is precarious and "we have to save resources." In particular, the technical design requires time and effort from a large number of participants each time. The dissatisfaction of the residents of the PMR, also accompanied by protests, can lead to clashes between Moldovan and Transnistrian armed forces if the crisis worsens. Against this background, Chisinau will take advantage of the opportunity to strengthen the militarization of the country, Cirdea believes.
— To her (Sandu. — Izvestia) it is beneficial to demonstrate to external curators the image of a "fighter against separatism." But in reality, ordinary people on both sides of the Dniester will suffer. <...> Pressure on the autonomous regions is the way to split the country, warns Tauber.
According to Bogdan Tsyrdi, after the elections, the pressure on Transnistria and Gagauzia will continue, since Sandu will not abandon his pro-European course in any case. However, much will depend on the settlement in Ukraine: having a fairly long border with this country, Moldova ensures the transit of weapons to the conflict zone. The solutions that Russia and the United States are currently looking for to resolve the crisis will affect the political background in the region in one way or another, the deputy said.
The situation before the elections in Moldova
By exerting pressure on Transnistria and Gagauzia, Chisinau is trying to control the situation before the elections: either by depriving the opposition of its voice, or by demonstrating its pro-Western course in every possible way, as in the case of Transnistria, for its "European voters." Maia Sandu won the presidential election in 2024 only on the second attempt and solely due to the votes of the Moldovan diaspora abroad. The upcoming vote is even more important for the republic: if the parliament is occupied by the opposition, then the president will have to reckon with the majority coalition, and given the relationship between the PAS and the opposition, it will be much more difficult for Sand to advance his political course towards European integration.
According to recent polls, Pobeda has gained about 40% of supporters within the country, and the ratings of the ruling party continue to decline and have reached 30%, said Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. It is not surprising that the Central Election Commission of Moldova has not yet allowed Pobeda to participate in the parliamentary elections, calling it the successor of the Shor party, which was previously recognized as unconstitutional.
However, another opposition bloc has already formed. The CEC has registered a list of 104 candidates from the so-called Patriotic Opposition bloc, which includes, in particular, the Party of Socialists of former President Igor Dodon. The Commission also approved a list of 103 candidates from the Alternative electoral bloc and 101 candidates from the Respect Moldova Movement party. There are only 101 mandates in Parliament.
Against this background, Chisinau is already actively reinsuring itself. For example, in Italy, the Moldovan authorities have opened almost 100 polling stations for voting, and in Russia — two. Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the country was pushing its own citizens with this decision. On August 17, Moldovan diasporas from the regions of the Russian Federation appealed to the central authorities, and also wrote letters to international authorities asking them to increase the number of polling stations.
On August 19, Pavel Postica, deputy chairman of the Central Election Commission of Moldova, announced the need to reduce polling stations for residents of Transnistria by three times — from 30 to 10 points. According to him, these points can allegedly be used to interfere in elections, and opening as many as 30 points would discriminate against the rest of the population. By the way, about 2 thousand polling stations are being opened for 2.4 million Moldovans for the elections. At the same time, about 300 thousand people with Moldovan passports live on the territory of the PMR. The local parliament has already protested.
— The authorities, apparently, also plan to use the mechanism already tested earlier in the presidential elections, which actually deprives the majority of Moldovans living in Russia of the right to vote. We are talking not only about limiting the number of polling stations on the territory of the Russian Federation, but also about the small number of imported ballots," Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU, Candidate of Political Sciences, told Izvestia.
As a result, the voices of Moldovans living in Europe and supporting Sandu may again become a determining factor. All this significantly increases the degree of tension ahead of the September parliamentary elections. Marina Tauber claims that the wave of protests will only increase.
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