The process of discord: the Israeli army opposes a new operation in Gaza

Israel is preparing to approve a plan for a new offensive on the Gaza Strip. According to Izvestia, the expansion of the operation will focus on the northern and central parts of the exclave, which the Israeli military considers to be the main strongholds of Hamas. According to their estimates, it is there that most of the militants of the Palestinian movement are located, as well as, presumably, Israeli hostages are being held. However, the army warns that the capture of these areas could lead to heavy losses and disrupt efforts to free the captives.

Israel's plans for the Gaza Strip

The Israeli authorities intend to approve a plan for a new large-scale offensive on the entire Gaza Strip. According to the country's media, the operation will last for five months and is aimed at the final suppression of Hamas and the release of the remaining hostages.

According to Izvestia, the upcoming expansion will primarily affect the northern and central regions of Gaza. According to estimates by the Israeli military, a significant number of Hamas fighters are concentrated in these zones, which makes them priority targets for the army. It is in these areas that Israeli security forces believe Hamas is holding hostages.

Shortly before the meeting of the military cabinet on this issue, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the country intends to establish control over the entire territory of the Gaza Strip in order to ensure a security perimeter. According to him, in the future it is planned to transfer the exclave under the control of a new "civilian government." He also stressed that Israel does not seek long-term control over Gaza. In the future, the administration of the territory may be transferred to Arab forces that will be able to ensure the security of Israel and decent living conditions for the population of the sector.

It is reported that at the first stage, the Israeli army will require more than a million Gazans to leave the capital of the exclave in order to free up the territory for the deployment of humanitarian infrastructure, in particular, field hospitals and camps for displaced persons. Then the active phase of the fighting should begin.

Four to five IDF divisions are planned to be used in the operation. The central goal of the campaign will be to capture Gaza and the refugee camps located in the center of the sector, Israeli Channel 12 reports. Israel expects to increase pressure on Hamas to secure the release of 50 hostages, about 20 of whom are believed to be still alive.

At the same time, the Israeli side's statements about the need for a "final victory" raise doubts.

"The goal of completely defeating Hamas did not look realistic either two years ago or now," Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the IMEMO Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. — An organization based on ideology can be significantly weakened by military force, but not destroyed.

To do this, according to the expert, it is necessary to offer a viable alternative and build a strategic vision for the future of Gaza, which has not been done at the moment. Otherwise, even significant military achievements will be temporary, and the threat will persist.

A split in the Israeli Government

Netanyahu's plan raises serious concerns in the Israeli military command. According to the Kan TV channel, the IDF believes that the complete capture of the Gaza Strip will lead to heavy losses among the military. Already, 459 people have been killed during the ground operation and fighting along the border.

In addition, the military emphasizes that the offensive could endanger the lives of the hostages. So far, the army has refrained from operating in the areas where they are allegedly being held. The General Staff came up with an alternative proposal — to surround the city of Gaza and act more gradually, but the prime minister, according to media reports, rejected this recommendation.

According to Lyudmila Samarskaya, there are "definitely disagreements" between the political and military leadership of Israel — the army assumes that the complete occupation of the Gaza Strip carries excessively high risks. In addition to potential losses among military personnel and hostages, this will negatively affect the needs of the civilian population.

"For the ruling cabinet, political considerations probably outweigh military expediency, although the relevant statements can be used as a tool of pressure on Hamas — so far, however, with limited effect," the expert concluded.

The leader of the opposition bloc, Yair Lapid, in an interview with Netanyahu, called the decision on the new occupation of the Gaza Strip a bad idea, "for which Israel will pay too high a price."

Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar, with the mediation of the United States, are convincing Israel and Hamas to return to dialogue, Kan reports. Negotiations, however, also somewhat slow down the settlement process. Benjamin Netanyahu, in particular, accused Hamas of "stubbornness," which, according to him, prevents an agreement from being reached. The Palestinian movement had previously opposed any attempts to disarm it or withdraw its leadership from the Gaza Strip, which was one of Israel's main demands.

Hamas remains open to negotiations

Hamas representatives take the threat of a new operation seriously, but they are confident that Israel has nothing left to offer except destruction. Basem Naim, a member of the political bureau of the movement, said in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that the exclave has long been under "complete occupation." "Israel has already entered every corner of Gaza over the past 22 months and still has not achieved any of its goals. What else can he do but keep killing and destroying?" — Naim emphasized. Another senior Hamas source told the newspaper: "If Israel is talking about occupation now, what has it been doing all this time? This is only an admission of the failure of the entire military campaign, despite Netanyahu's claims of a close victory."

At the same time, Hamas makes it clear that it is ready to resume negotiations as soon as Israel abandons a full-scale offensive. "If they want a protracted war for years, we are ready. Our fighters are in position on the ground," said one of the movement's representatives. — But if we are talking about negotiations and an agreement, we are also open. We want to protect our people from the consequences of this criminal war."

Against this background, attempts to resume negotiations on a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas continue. According to the Saudi Al-Hadath TV channel, the dialogue has not been interrupted since the collapse of the last round in late July, and Hamas is now under serious pressure from several external players. Earlier, amid a crisis in the negotiations, the Hamas delegation left Doha, and the Qatari and Egyptian mediators temporarily suspended cooperation between the parties.