Long live Karol: Navrotsky's rhetoric will complicate Poland's relations with the EU and Kiev

The era of fierce confrontation in the corridors of power will continue in Poland. On August 6, new President Karol Nawrocki, a right—wing populist and eurosceptic supported by the Law and Justice Party (PiS) and Donald Trump, took the oath of office. Now he has five years to work with the ideological antipode — the pro-European government of Donald Tusk. This tandem will complicate relations with Brussels and Kiev and partially adjust the position on Ukraine. The main question is whether Navrotsky's harsh rhetoric will become a change of course or will remain an element of a large domestic political game.

Will Poland's attitude towards the EU change

The winner of the second round of the presidential election in Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who received 50.89% of the vote on June 1, officially took office. On August 6, his inauguration took place, during which he took the oath of office in front of both houses of Parliament. Navrotsky will lead the country for at least five years, and then he can be re-elected for another term.

The views of historian Karol Nawrocki differ significantly from the generally accepted European values. In Polish society, he is known as a right-wing populist and a Eurosceptic who actively creates "the image of a tough guy committed to family values," The New York Times notes. According to the newspaper, Navrotsky often posts on social media about his young family and the Catholic faith. He also shares photos of himself working out at the gym, boxing, and shooting guns.

On the eve of Nawrocki's inauguration, Polish media actively discussed his Eurosceptic and anti-German sentiments. According to the newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung, the politician rejects the EU migration pact, which he considers "German." According to Nawrocki, he will not tolerate Germany imposing decisions that could threaten the security of Polish citizens. However, at the inauguration, the new leader expressed his willingness to maintain Warsaw's relations with Brussels, but with one condition — to prevent the loss of national sovereignty.

At the same time, in practice, Warsaw is unlikely to change its course towards the European Union. This opinion was expressed to Izvestia by Polish political scientist and former Sejm deputy Mateusz Piskorski. He recalled that the president plays a secondary role in the republic's foreign policy, while key decisions remain with the government. Since 2023, the Cabinet of Ministers has been headed by the chairman of the Civic Platform party, Donald Tusk, who is known for his pro-European views. In December 2023, he already announced that Poland would restore its status as one of the EU leaders.

Along the way, he faced a serious rival in the person of the previous Polish president Andrzej Duda, a nominee of the Eurosceptic Law and Justice Party (PiS). In this regard, his successor, the non—partisan Karol Navrotsky, but at the same time nominated from PiS, will continue his policy of confrontation with the government, Oleg Nemensky, a leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, explained to Izvestia.

— The fact that one president from this party was replaced by another president from this party does not fundamentally change anything. There is still a situation of confrontation between the president and the government on a number of domestic and foreign policy issues, including in relations with the EU and major European states," the expert said.

He added that Navrotsky holds more right-wing views than Duda and makes tougher statements. Such rhetoric will significantly worsen and complicate the government's policy in relations with the EU and especially with Berlin, Nemensky believes. According to Mateusz Piskorski, harsh Eurosceptic statements, which should be expected in the future from the new president, will in practice have no effect on relations between Poland and the European Union.

In domestic politics, Navrotsky will continue to veto all of Tusk's pro-European bills, as Duda did, Piskorski said. Earlier, the Polish Prime Minister presented a set of measures to eliminate PiS control over the judicial system and the media, and promised to return the right to abortion in the country. However, all these initiatives could not be implemented due to the presidential veto.

Poland and the EU have a number of contradictions that have been going on for many years. For example, Brussels is not satisfied with the Catholic Warsaw's approach to LGBT people (the movement is recognized as extremist and banned in Russia). Previously, so-called "LGBT-free zones" appeared in it. In them, local authorities adopted resolutions that condemned this ideology or expressed support for traditional family values. Poland recently got rid of all such zones, but according to the latest ranking, it is still considered one of the worst countries for LGBT people, ahead only of Romania. In addition, Brussels has repeatedly accused Warsaw of violating the rule of law and putting pressure on the media.

— Both Duda and Navrotsky opposed all issues related to LGBT people, they opposed the acceptance of migrants, they have quite Islamophobic sentiments, partly directed against the colored population who stay in the country. They are skeptics about the green agenda. In this sense, they do not correspond to the mainstream that still prevails in Brussels. But there is a government that, on the contrary, is left—liberal," Dmitry Bunevich, a political scientist and adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, tells Izvestia.

Will Navrotsky's coming to power affect Kiev's support?

Navrotsky's assumption of office may negatively affect relations between Poland and Ukraine. During his election campaign, the new president spoke out against her joining the European Union. He argued his position by saying that Kiev had not fulfilled the necessary conditions for membership. He also spoke out against Ukraine's accession to NATO. Finally, being a professional historian, Navrotsky repeatedly reminded the Ukrainian leadership, and in particular Vladimir Zelensky, that he did not pay enough attention to the problem of the Volyn massacre, when in 1943 the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA, banned in the Russian Federation) massacred ethnic Poles.

— I consistently demand from the Ukrainian authorities a systematic solution to the issue of issuing permits for the search and exhumation of victims of the Volyn genocide. Reconciliation can only be based on the truth," he said.

At the same time, Navrtsky supports military assistance to Kiev, emphasizing the need for further cooperation with Ukraine. Therefore, his position cannot be called anti-Ukrainian in any way. But even if he wanted to, he would not be able to block military supplies, since the government is responsible for this issue, Piskorsky stressed.

Poland will continue to accept thousands of Ukrainian refugees. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in April 2025, at least 999,000 Ukrainians are registered in the country. However, due to the growing public discontent under the new president, the requirements for visitors may significantly tighten, Oleg Nemensky noted.

— Now one of the most popular slogans in Poland is stop Ukrainization. Therefore, the possibilities of financing them will continue to decrease. They [refugees] will be more harshly required to fully integrate into Polish society, that is, accept Polish values, learn Polish as children, and recognize the Polish view of history,— he said.

The guests are tired of the hosts: in Poland, they are thinking about closing the hub for the supply of weapons to Kiev

Andrzej Duda complained that Warsaw is not involved in resolving issues on Ukraine

By 2025, Polish society was tired of the conflict in the neighboring country. Poles do not like it when they see "young Ukrainian men driving the latest cars or staying in five-star hotels," said the country's Defense Minister Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh. According to a United Surveys study, enthusiasm for refugees has waned in two years. The number of people with a negative attitude has increased to 33%. Moreover, in January 2024, the Polish police reported that the influx of refugees from Ukraine had increased the crime rate in the country.

Under Navrotsky, special public education campaigns will be conducted in Poland, which may become mandatory for Ukrainian immigrants to accept the Polish point of view, the expert believes. In all other respects, Navrotsky will follow a position in relation to Ukraine that is consistent with US policy. During the election campaign, Navorotsky was supported by Donald Trump. Against this background, it is very likely that the new president will continue his policy of rapprochement with Washington in his term. At the inauguration, he promised to make the republic's army the leading force in NATO. At the same time, the media write that on the occasion of the inauguration, Trump sent his Polish counterpart a "special" gift — a copy of the American eagle, which is considered the coat of arms of the United States.

Navrotsky's coming to power does not promise any improvements in contacts with Russia, which are currently in a state of freezing, Nemensky said. In March 2025, Navrotsky called for severing diplomatic relations with Moscow. He called Russia a "barbaric country" and recalled that earlier, as director of the Institute of National Remembrance, he "destroyed more than 40 objects of Soviet propaganda." It is possible that Poland will actively consider the possibility of severing diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation. This is due to Polish rhetoric that Russia is allegedly preparing an attack on Poland, the expert concluded.

According to Buniewicz, Poland is very divided: the president now represents the right-wing conservative and religious camp, and the government represents pro—European liberal forces. Nevertheless, the presidency of Navrotsky will not lead to a serious change in the republic's foreign policy.

His main task will be to unite all right-wing forces around Law and Justice. Navrotsky will try to win over the electorate of the more right-wing Confederation party, which may seriously compete with PiS and Civic Platform in the next parliamentary elections, Piskorsky noted. At the same time, the constitution may change in Poland. "Recently (regulations. The constitution of Poland is violated so regularly that we, as a political class, must start working on solutions for a new constitution that will be ready for adoption, I hope and believe, in 2030," Nawrocki said during his inauguration.