Gravity: Germany has increased pressure on opponents of anti-Russian sanctions
Germany will actively promote anti-Russian sanctions in the EU, Izvestia found out. In particular, Berlin intends to put pressure on Slovakia, as its Prime Minister Robert Fico has declared his readiness to block the 19th package of measures. He approved the 18th list only after extensive discussions with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Slovakia's goal is to maintain energy supplies from Russia, but Brussels will make only partial concessions, experts believe. Opponents of restrictions are threatened with the freezing of funds from euro funds and the deprivation of the right to vote, so EU countries approve all new packages of restrictions. Germany's role as a coordinator in the process of adopting sanctions against Russia is described in the Izvestia article.
Germany coordinates sanctions against Russia
Berlin intends to negotiate with Slovakia to convince it to support sanctions against Russia, the German Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. Earlier, the Prime Minister of the Republic, Robert Fico, said that she would block the next package of EU measures by setting her own conditions.
— Federal Chancellor Merz expressed his gratitude to Slovakia for its willingness to support the [18th] package of sanctions. In the future, we will continue to cooperate constructively with Slovakia in order to jointly increase the EU's sanctions pressure on Russia," the diplomatic mission said.
They added that with the 18th package of sanctions, the EU demonstrated that if the Russian leadership continues "to refuse to sit down at the negotiating table and continue bombing Ukraine, it will have its price." However, it is worth noting that Russian officials have never spoken out against dialogue with either Ukraine or its Western partners. In particular, on August 4, the Kremlin allowed Vladimir Putin to hold talks with Vladimir Zelensky.
— All the preparatory work for the meeting has not been done yet. And I want to remind you that President [Putin] himself does not rule out holding such a meeting after the necessary work is done at the expert level and the proper distance is covered," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the head of the Russian Federation.
Recall that Bratislava blocked the adoption of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia for a month. Slovakia used this lever to put pressure on the European Commission to maintain Russian gas supplies. In May, the EC published a roadmap for the abandonment of energy resources from the Russian Federation by 2028. However, on July 18, Bratislava supported the introduction of restrictions, accepting guarantees from Brussels.
It is not yet specified exactly what conditions are meant, but it is known that Robert Fico is seeking a promise to compensate for high gas prices from euro funds. The EU is already developing a 19th list of restrictions against Russia, Izvestia wrote earlier. Slovakia does not rule out that it will be blocked. Bratislava's goal is to obtain new concessions from the European Commission.
— We are in a situation where we have no reason to change our position. We are not going to change our position. We wanted to talk, and we will talk about it in the next few days, about our position on the 19th package of sanctions," Fico said.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz played the most active role in persuading Robert Fico to agree to support sanctions against Russia. He stated that he spoke with Fico on the phone almost every day, and also held a meeting with him in Brussels to convince the Slovak prime minister to soften his position.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a press conference on July 17.
Germany, under the Merz government, has become a more active initiator of sanctions against Russia. Berlin recently concluded a comprehensive agreement with London, and now they are setting the agenda in the European Union together, although the UK left it earlier, Vladislav Belov, Deputy director of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences for scientific work, told Izvestia.
— My hypothesis is that Donald Trump shortened the settlement period from 50 to 10 days due to the actions of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He prompted him to postpone the deadline just in time for the start of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia," the expert noted.
Although there are countries in the EU that have a more negative attitude towards Russia, Germany is the largest economy in the union. Therefore, it is natural that the German Chancellor assumes the role of coordinator. In addition, Friedrich Merz needs to assert himself, and the confrontation with Russia will distract attention from internal problems, says political analyst Vadim Trukhachev.
Berlin and Brussels have other ways to get the recalcitrants to agree on the issue of sanctions. For example, in September 2022, the EC froze 7.5 billion euros for Hungary from the EU budget. Slovakia is now facing such punishment: Brussels may withhold part of the €12.8 billion allocated to Bratislava from the European Union Solidarity Fund. In addition, the idea of depriving Hungary of the right to vote or switching to a new decision-making scheme by a qualified majority, rather than by unanimous vote, has been repeatedly discussed in EU political circles. And assistance to Ukraine has already been repeatedly approved at the moment when the Hungarian representative left the meeting room.
As a result, Budapest and Bratislava sought only partial relief, but time after time they agree with the adoption of anti-Russian restrictions. Obviously, this situation will not change until the leaders of the EU — Germany, France and Italy - change their position. However, there are no prerequisites for this.
What concessions is Slovakia seeking?
The main concern of Bratislava, as well as Budapest, is the desire of the European Commission to completely abandon the import of Russian energy resources by the end of 2027. Slovakia and Hungary have no access to the sea and receive gas and oil from the Russian Federation through the Druzhba and Turkish Stream pipelines. At the same time, Ukraine had previously tried to prevent supplies along these routes.
The automotive industry accounts for about 15% of Slovakia's GDP and half of the country's exports. The republic produces about 1 million cars a year, and it ranks first in the world in terms of car production per capita. Hungary also produces cars.: Audi, Opel and Suzuki products account for 17% of its total exports. Budapest is also actively engaged in the export of agricultural products. An increase in the cost of energy resources will increase production costs, and the two republics will lose their competitive advantages.
Let's add to this the fact that Hungary and Slovakia have signed long-term contracts with Gazprom: until 2034 in the case of Bratislava and until 2036 for Budapest. If they are severed, the two countries will have to pay a fine. Therefore, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico use their veto power on foreign policy issues in the EU to bargain for concessions. They have succeeded in the past — for example, Hungary has achieved the exclusion of the Paks-2 NPP project from restrictions.
At the same time, the two republics are not the only opponents of certain restrictions against Russia. According to media reports, Malta was against lowering the ceiling on oil prices, while France and Belgium opposed the plan to ban LNG supplies from the Russian Federation.
— Brussels will make purely cosmetic concessions, and Bratislava and Budapest will be forced not to abandon, but to reduce purchases of Russian energy resources. In general, Europe is an unreliable partner, and we need to look for other markets, and even better to supply petroleum products rather than crude oil," said Vadim Trukhachev.
It is important that the EU refuses Russian energy resources with the intention of replacing them with American ones. In July, Donald Trump met in Scotland with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the parties concluded a political agreement. Instead of the promised 30% duties, the head of the White House agreed to 15%. In return, Brussels pledged to establish a preferential customs regime for American goods and to purchase at least $750 billion worth of energy from the United States over the next three years, as well as to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy. The head of the European Commission described the agreement with the United States as "the best we could get."
Paks-2 NPP construction site in Hungary
Slovakia is already trying to reorient itself towards the United States in the nuclear energy sector in this situation. The European Commission has approved a draft intergovernmental agreement between the countries on cooperation in this area, with plans to build a new NPP unit in the village of Yaslovske Bogunice. However, in the case of oil and gas, everything is more complicated, so Bratislava is trying to maintain Russian supplies while simultaneously working on new energy sources. Given the fact that Hungary has managed to protect the Paks-2 project from sanctions, Bratislava has a chance of at least partially maintaining cooperation with the Russian Federation in the energy sector.
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