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Military reactivity: Russia records an increase in the militarization of the Black Sea due to NATO and the EU
NATO has significantly expanded its intelligence activities in the Black Sea, Vladislav Maslennikov, head of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. The military infrastructure of the North Atlantic Alliance in Bulgaria and Romania is being actively modernized, and exercises are regularly held on their territory. The EU is also showing dangerous activity, having recently adopted a new strategy for the region. Its goal is to turn the Black Sea into an arena of direct confrontation with Russia, Vladislav Maslennikov noted. Experts emphasize that the militarization of the region threatens shipping and international trade. In addition, there is a danger of a direct clash between Russia and the West.
NATO and EU's involvement in the militarization of the Black Sea
The militarization of the Black Sea poses a serious security challenge. The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasizes that the North Atlantic Alliance has significantly increased its intelligence activities in the region.
— The military presence of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea region is growing, and it is justified, of course, by the "Russian threat." NATO declares that the Black Sea is its area of responsibility," Vladislav Maslennikov, head of the Department of European Affairs at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. — The Alliance has significantly intensified its surveillance and reconnaissance activities in the Black Sea and intends to expand satellite monitoring of the water area.
He noted that long-range radar surveillance and radio reconnaissance aircraft regularly fly over the region. In addition, the military infrastructure of the bloc is being actively modernized in Bulgaria and Romania, and exercises are being conducted on their territory, including to develop NATO regional defense plans.
At the same time, the block's ships have not entered the Black Sea since 2022. After Turkey's decision to close the straits for the passage of military vessels, naval ships of only the Black Sea states are located in the water area. At the initiative of Ankara, a group with the participation of Bulgaria and Romania for the clearance of the Black Sea was established in 2024. Turkey declares that, following the 1936 Montreux Convention on Free Navigation, it does not intend to allow ships of other NATO countries to pass through the straits into the Black Sea.
— We advocate that the problems of the Black Sea should be solved exclusively by coastal states, — said Vladislav Maslennikov.
Security threats are posed not only by NATO, but also by the European Union. At the end of May, the European Commission presented a new EU strategy for the Black Sea region. It provides for strengthening the EU's "geopolitical role as a reliable player in the Black Sea region," establishing a "closer partnership" with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and promoting "regional cooperation in the field of connectivity."
— This strategy explicitly states that it is based on a geopolitical project designed to ensure the security and democratic consolidation of the region based on Western values. In this case, the coastal states are only a springboard for the realization of the EU's political ambitions in order to actually squeeze Russia out of the region, despite the fact that we are one of the key Black Sea powers," Vladislav Maslennikov noted.
According to the diplomat, the strategy implies deepening regional cooperation between the EU and NATO.
— It is quite obvious that this strategy is a product of the Brussels "war party". It pays exaggerated attention to security and defense issues. This document clearly shows that the EU's key intention is to turn the Black Sea into an arena of direct confrontation with Russia by developing appropriate infrastructure, expanding military planning, patrolling, and intelligence activities," the diplomat stressed.
At the same time, Russia notes that the transformation of the Black Sea into a military springboard does not correspond to the real interests of the countries of the Black Sea region, as well as neighboring regions — Transcaucasia, Central Asia and the Western Balkans. The European Initiative represents exclusively the interests of the European Union and actually ignores the very existence of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC), which includes 13 states, including the Russian Federation.
— It is obvious that the strategy is one of the mechanisms of Brussels to assist the Kiev regime. In its context, Ukraine is considered as the main beneficiary along with Bulgaria and Romania. If the interests of other Black Sea states are taken into account, it will be based on the residual principle," Vladislav Maslennikov said. — There are no references in it, not even mentions of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, which in the current geopolitical conditions remains the only mechanism of interaction between the states of the Black Sea region.
Risks of direct military conflict
The risk of a direct military clash between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea has increased since the start of the conflict. Separate incidents have already occurred in its waters, for example, the crash in March 2023 of the American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone after being intercepted by a Russian Su-27. There have been no such incidents over the past year, but the risk of escalation remains.
Multirole fighter Su-27 naval aviation of the Russian Navy
— The Black Sea Fleet is successfully countering the growing NATO presence in this area. In the coming years, Black Sea sailors will be further strengthened, namely, the arrival of new frigates, corvettes, aviation, and marine robotic systems," said Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Russian Maritime Collegium.
Great Britain is particularly active. At the end of April, Patrushev noted that among London's actions was the emergence of a "mine action coalition" in cooperation with Ukraine and NATO countries, as well as the escort of merchant ships by ships of its naval forces.
As militarization in the Black Sea region increases, the risk of military incidents involving Russia and NATO countries increases, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies. However, he stresses that a direct deliberate attack by either side is unlikely.
— As practice shows, the bulk of the bloc's unfriendly and sometimes extremely aggressive steps towards Russia take place in a hybrid form. "Among the basic scenarios, we can single out the creation of threats to Russian ships following shipping routes in the Black Sea, the activity or invasion of reconnaissance drones and NATO reconnaissance aircraft into Russian airspace, electronic warfare and covert sabotage or destruction of important infrastructure facilities at the bottom," he told Izvestia.
Construction of warships of the Black Sea Fleet
In this context, the strengthening of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea serves as a deterrent factor that makes it possible to stop the actions of Western countries, emphasizes Tigran Meloyan.
To eliminate the risks of a direct military clash, first of all, a political dialogue between the parties is necessary, political analyst Dmitry Sidorov told Izvestia.
— The Russia—NATO political dialogue was completely stopped several years ago, and in modern realities its resumption seems unrealistic. Russia cooperates with individual NATO and EU countries, which is also important, but this is not enough to develop new rules of the game that would suit all parties. It is extremely important to maintain contacts with Turkey, including on the issue of compliance with the provisions of the Montreux Convention," the expert said.
Threat to Russia's economic interests in the Black Sea
The Black Sea remains a key transport corridor for Russia, providing a significant flow of strategic goods. Today, the volume of cargo turnover through the Russian Black Sea ports is about 24 billion rubles per day. Through them, the Russian Federation carries out a significant part of exports of grain, fertilizers and other goods. The trade route through the Black Sea is also of great importance for the country because it allows goods to be delivered to countries that have not joined Western sanctions against the Russian Federation.
Novorossiysk commercial sea Port on the Black Sea
By increasing its military presence in the region, NATO is seeking to increase the economic costs for the Russian Federation. Restrictions on shipping and rising insurance tariffs for transportation are already leading to increased logistical costs. The militarization of the Black Sea, as well as the Baltic Sea, may lead to an increase in cargo transit costs, reduce export revenues, and worsen the conditions of the port infrastructure and the environment.
— Potentially, intensive military exercises and anti-mine operations by NATO in this region may be among the obstacles for Russian ships traveling from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, when part of the maritime space will be temporarily closed for commercial activities. The second option is that the alliance countries may restrict or completely close access to seaports and inland waterways for ships associated with Russia. To refuse to provide them with maintenance services and so on," said Tigran Meloyan.
Another potential step could be the closure of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, which are under Turkish control. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that now there are no signs that such a decision can be made, since it would violate the Montreux Convention.
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