Unrestrained background: The West undermines the security system in the Asia-Pacific region

Large—scale military exercises are currently underway in Australia and Taiwan, the purpose of which is to prepare for future conflict. The West is fragmenting the Asia-Pacific region by creating small alliances that will not allow building a unified security system in the region, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia. Western countries are consistently strengthening their presence in the region, and the most likely points of future conflicts are Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, experts say. Russia also proposes to create a unified Eurasian security system and prevent provocations. About the balance of power in the Asia—Pacific region - in the material of Izvestia.

Large-scale exercises are taking place in the Asia-Pacific region

The US Army has conducted tests of the Typhon missile system in Australia. This is the first such testing outside the United States and the second deployment of the Typhon system in the Asia-Pacific region after the Philippines. The range of the SM-6 missiles used in this system is about 500 km. In addition, the first launch of the HIMARS system was held in Australia on July 14.

The missile launches are part of the large—scale Talisman Sabre 2025 exercises that started in Australia. More than 35,000 military personnel from 19 countries will take part in them. The list of participants is impressive: military personnel from the USA, Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and Fiji. Representatives of Malaysia and Vietnam are present as observers. The maneuvers will last three weeks, not only on Australian territory, but also in Papua New Guinea.

The Talisman Sabre exercises are being held for the 11th time, they started in 2005. The main feature of this year's maneuvers is that India joined them for the first time, and now all members of the QUAD — a security dialogue between the United States, India, Japan and Australia — are taking part in them. In addition, the list of areas in which cooperation is being worked out has expanded: not only at sea, on land and in the air, but also in cyberspace. The exercise program explicitly states that its purpose is to "prepare for a potential conflict."

The West is pursuing a policy of fragmentation of the Asia-Pacific region instead of creating a unified security system, creating small blocks of narrow composition, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko told Izvestia.

— This is one of the manifestations of the policy within the framework of the Indo-Pacific strategy, when small blocks of narrow composition are created instead of a single security system. It seems to us that they are working to fragment the single ASEAN space, the single space of the Asia-Pacific region. It is this space that has contributed to the current economic and social prosperity of these countries," the diplomat said, answering a question from Izvestia.

In recent years, the West has dramatically increased its attention to the region and has begun building military alliances. In 2021, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed a military cooperation agreement called AUKUS. According to the agreement, London and Washington should help Australia create a fleet of nuclear submarines.

In parallel with the United States, the European Union is developing its military and political activity. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa during the G7 summit in Canada in June. The parties agreed to start substantive negotiations on a security partnership. The main areas of cooperation in the draft of the future agreement are the defense industry, cybersecurity and the fight against terrorism. In November 2024, Brussels agreed on a similar partnership with Japan and South Korea.

Asian shooting range: Taiwan has begun working out a scenario of a full-scale war with China

More than 22,000 reservists will take part in the exercises.

The QUAD continues to develop: since 2021, the leaders of the United States, Japan, India and Australia have been holding periodic summits, thereby moving towards the formalization of the union. In 2022, the Partners in the Blue Pacific group was created. It includes the United States, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom. The task of the group is to strengthen ties with the Pacific island states where US military bases are located. In the future, other countries in the region, Canada and New Zealand, may join AUKUS and QUAD.

Washington is thus trying to win over even more allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily the Philippines, India, South Korea and Japan, Alexander Korolev, Deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

— This can also include the activation of AUKUS and the actual involvement of the Philippines and South Korea in this initiative. The United States is doing this to contain China. Thus, they send a signal, first of all, to Beijing that in the event of its militarization in the Taiwan Strait area, the United States will be ready to restrain China through military and political means," the expert emphasized.

Potential risk points in Asia

It is important that the partnerships that are being created not only cooperate in the field of defense, but also increase military power. Thus, the AUKUS participants are jointly developing the SSN-AUKUS attack submarine using American technologies. It should enter service in the early 2040s. The United States has also committed to sell Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines starting in 2032. Washington is currently busy reviewing the terms of this agreement due to the fact that the submarines will be useful for the US army to protect Taiwan. Recall that China considers it its territory, but it is not under the full control of Beijing.

The island also hosts the atypically large-scale Hanguang exercises: they started on July 9 and will last ten days, although previously they took no more than five. A record number of participants are involved in the maneuvers: more than 22 thousand reservists will join the regular troops. The legend of the exercises is also noteworthy: first, Taiwan is subjected to cyber attacks and an economic blockade, and then local forces must repel the attack of the PLA landing force. The island's authorities even point to 2027 as the most likely date.

Meanwhile, Washington is seeking to involve its allies in the Taiwan issue. According to the Financial Times newspaper, the United States is putting pressure on Japan and Australia to determine their role in a possible military conflict over Taiwan. US Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby called on allies to increase defense budgets and review priorities, which, according to the FT, led to the cancellation of a meeting between representatives of the United States and Japan.

NATO is creating nuclear-armed alliances in the regions of Southeast and Northeast Asia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier. He noted that this is accompanied by the advancement of NATO's infrastructure to the east, including in such dangerous forms as the transfer of ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles to the Philippines, which were previously prohibited by the Russian-American treaty.

The risks of destabilization of the situation in the Asia-Pacific region are growing every year. Alexander Korolev identified two potential risk points: the Taiwan Strait, where China is strengthening its military presence, and the South China Sea.

Put on deterrence: Russia will respond to the deployment of NATO forces in Northern Europe

How can Moscow react to the militarization of the Baltic and what does the Arctic Council have to do with it?

— The United States is actively involving even participants who have no direct relationship or territorial claims in the conflict in the South China Sea. For example, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. The Americans are also deploying their weapons in the Philippines and extending the agreement on the deployment of military bases. All this indicates that the South China Sea is becoming an even more active zone of opposition between the United States and China," the political scientist concluded.

Another potentially dangerous point is the Korean Peninsula. During his visit to the DPRK on July 11-13, Sergey Lavrov pointed out that the United States, together with Japan and South Korea, are conducting large-scale military exercises near the borders of the DPRK, including with a nuclear component. Russia will do everything possible to ensure the legitimate rights of its ally and prevent provocations that could end badly, the minister said. In addition, Moscow has consistently advocated the formation of an indivisible Eurasian security system.