Remaining Druze: why the fighting in southern Syria has turned with renewed vigor
Damascus is losing influence in southern Syria: the province of Al-Suwayda is actually out of control of the authorities, and attempts by the security forces to restore order have only worsened the situation. The Syrian army has launched an operation in the Druze city of Al-Suwayda, declaring its cleansing from illegal armed groups. In response to attacks on Druze settlements, self-defense units and Israel joined the conflict. He launched several attacks on the capital of the SAR, including the presidential palace, and threatened to expand the attacks. On the evening of July 16, a Druze community leader denied reports that she had allegedly reached a truce with the central government. Whether Damascus can switch from forceful measures to political ones and how external interference intensifies the confrontation — in the Izvestia article.
Armed clashes in southern Syria
The armed conflict in the city of Al-Suwayda in southern Syria, populated mainly by representatives of the Druze community, is rapidly escalating into one of the bloodiest episodes in the country's post-Assad history. Since the start of the operation, announced by the Syrian Ministry of Defense, more than 200 people have already died in the fighting, including at least 93 SAR soldiers. Israel launched a missile attack on the positions of Syrian troops and threatened to expand attacks if the offensive against the Druze continued. On July 16, the Israeli Air Force struck the vicinity of the presidential palace in Damascus.
On July 15, the Syrian Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of regular troops and Interior Ministry units to Suwayda. The official purpose of the operation was to "clear the city of illegal armed groups." According to Damascus, on the morning of July 16, after a temporary ceasefire agreement concluded with local community leaders, groups operating in the city violated the agreement and attacked army and police forces. In response, the Syrian military opened fire.
On July 16, the Syrian Interior Ministry announced that an agreement had been reached on the cessation of hostilities in the province of Al-Suwayda between the country's armed forces and armed groups. Earlier, this was also stated by several Druze figures. Nevertheless, the most influential spiritual leader of the community, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, denied reports of a truce and said that the fighting would continue until the province was completely liberated. According to him, no agreements, negotiations or arrangements have been reached with the Syrian government.
Local self-defense units operate in the region. After a recent wave of attacks on Druze villages, including those involving Bedouin armed groups, local fighters have engaged in battle with Damascus forces. At the same time, key roads connecting the province with other regions, including the highway to the capital, were blocked.
"The fundamental problem of the regime remains the systemic loss of legitimacy and the inability to resolve key security issues," explains Alain Saab, an expert on Druze communities, to Izvestia. "On the one hand, Damascus cannot limit sectarian rhetoric in pro—government structures, which is why even local incidents are interpreted as ethno—confessional threats. On the other hand, the actions of the Public Security Service are accompanied by looting and bullying, which definitively undermines the community's trust in the state.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, particularly fierce fighting is taking place on the western outskirts of the city. Not only direct clashes were recorded, but also extrajudicial executions.
The Druze are a special ethnic and religious minority living in the mountainous and desert regions of Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Jordan. They are distinguished by their peculiar religious system and way of life. In particular, the Druze believe in the transmigration of souls, do not adhere to obligatory prayers, and reject polygamy and traditional rituals. Because of this, Islamic radicals do not recognize them as Muslims, often call them pagans or Satanists and call for their persecution. Sometimes the Druze are mistakenly referred to as Ismaili Shiites. The Druze community in the Middle East does not exceed 1.5 million people, while the largest group lives in Syria — from 700 thousand to 850 thousand.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said his country would not allow attacks on the Druze community and would launch new strikes if Syrian government forces did not leave the province. On July 16, the Israeli army decided to build up forces near the border with Syria.
According to Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, Israel's actions go beyond protecting the Druze community.
— After October 7, 2023, Israel revised its security priorities, and now controlled chaos along the perimeter of its borders is considered preferable to the creation of stable state structures that, as they strengthen, can threaten the Jewish state. While individual manifestations of chaos that can spill out onto Israel are much easier to stop," the expert explained to Izvestia. — Hence the idea of creating a demilitarized zone in southern Syria, controlled by loyal Druze formations.
However, as Kirill Semenov emphasizes, Israel's approach is fraught with serious consequences. "In the event of the loss of Essaouida, the regime in Damascus may not be able to resist, which is exactly what Israel wants, but this will lead to the collapse of the failed Syrian statehood, which the most radical forces will take advantage of, which will be able to consolidate around the cells of ISIS (IS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia) operating in Syria. in the desert," the expert noted.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Essaouida has sharply worsened. The city was left without electricity and water: the main power lines were damaged, pumping stations were stopped. The delivery of food and medicine is virtually impossible: the main roads are blocked, and shelling continues. Food and medicine supplies are rapidly running out, and people are hiding in their homes, and many villages have been cut off from the outside world. Medical facilities have been shut down in a number of districts.
Why is the situation in Syria out of control?
The province of Essaouida has traditionally maintained relative autonomy from the center. The Druze community, despite its formal loyalty to Damascus, often acted independently, especially in matters of local security. An attempt to carry out a forceful "centralization" in the region may lead to the destruction of the last channel of trust between the government and local structures.
If the Syrian authorities do not develop a clear and inclusive strategy to stabilize the southern regions, the crisis in Essaouida risks escalating into a large-scale confrontation, and the intervention of external players, including Israel, will only increase regional tensions.
According to orientalist Kirill Semenov, one of the key reasons for the escalation in Essaouida is the institutional weakness of the regime. The security forces are a conglomerate of diverse groups, ranging from Syrian and Turkish nationalists to moderate Islamists and radical jihadists. Each of them acts in accordance with its ideology, which makes unified management impossible.
"Moreover, it is the participation of these structures in operations in the south that causes acute distrust on the part of the Druze community, which perceives them as an existential threat," the expert notes. According to him, this not only does not stabilize the situation, but also pushes local residents to openly resist.
According to Alain Saab, a negotiation process is unlikely in the foreseeable future. "Local formations no longer consider Damascus as a partner. Israeli support and success in repelling attacks shifted the focus from defense to an attempt to oust the regime from the province. Damascus cannot retreat without losing face," Saab stresses.
Nevertheless, the expert believes that the prospect of a powerful military crackdown by the authorities is unlikely. On the one hand, this will give Israel an official reason to launch a full-scale operation in the southern provinces of Syria, including Daraa, Damascus and Quneitra. On the other hand, the Lebanese Druze, including politician Walid Jumblatt and spiritual leaders, are putting pressure on Damascus, demanding that the military scenario be abandoned.
"In the long run, there will inevitably be a need for dialogue," Saab said. — The province is isolated, dependent on external supplies and resources. But now this dialogue is possible only taking into account the real strength of the Druze detachments and with the recognition of their political weight.
Kirill Semenov also emphasizes that the confrontation is being intensified by external interference, as Israel is actively exploiting internal contradictions between Druze leaders.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
