Impose a crash: how do Arab countries view the US tariffs

Since August 1, the United States has imposed duties of 30% on imports from Algeria, Iraq and Libya, but Washington's main blow is aimed not so much at the economy as at politics. The main export of these countries, oil, remains unchanged. Algeria's largest Islamic party saw the US decision as a negative signal for bilateral relations. Its parliament allowed an increase in duties to 30% or more on American goods. The Iraqi government called Trump's decision an economically illogical step. Other Arab states that are members of the BRICS may also be affected. The White House is now clearly signaling that rapprochement with this association may result in additional tariffs. Why Trump is taking this step, despite the minimal trade effect, and how Arab countries are responding to pressure is in the Izvestia article.

Mirror duties on the United States

The US decision to impose duties on imports from Algeria from August 1 in this country was regarded as an alarming signal about the state of bilateral relations. And in Iraq, they considered it economically illogical, since exports to the United States consist almost entirely of oil— products that are not subject to the new measures. Despite the potential severity of the tariff — up to 30% — no serious consequences are expected in both countries.

"Washington's decision is in line with Trump's course: he is trying to impose a new reality, bypassing the norms of international law and diplomacy," Ahmad Sadouk, deputy head of Algeria's Movement for Peace Movement party, MP, told Izvestia. — This does not mean the termination of bilateral ties, but it sends a negative political signal.

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According to him, the level of trade relations between Algeria and the United States is already low, and the main export items, primarily oil, are not subject to tariffs. Therefore, the country will not suffer any real damage from the decisions of the White House.

— We do not see any potential consequences from these measures. The volume of mutual trade is small. Algeria, if necessary, can respond in a mirror manner, for example, by increasing duties to 30% or higher," Ahmad Sadouk said.

The financial adviser to the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mazhar Saleh, agrees with him. In an interview with Shafaq news channel, he recalled that Washington had signaled its intention to strengthen its strategic partnership to Baghdad in recent months and even sent a corresponding message.

"The letter from the US president contained clear hints of the intention to expand trade and investment cooperation with Iraq. But the threat of a 30% tariff seems illogical: 95% of Iraq's exports to the United States are crude oil, which was initially excluded from duties," he said.

According to the Iraqi government, the volume of trade between the two countries reached $9.1 billion in 2024, of which more than $5.8 billion was accounted for by American oil purchases. The United States also exports about $1.5 billion worth of products to Iraq per year, from machinery and equipment to agricultural machinery and digital solutions.

In addition to Algeria and Iraq, duties from August 1 will also affect Libya. A single threshold of 30% has been set for all three countries. In the case of Algeria, almost two-thirds of exports to the United States are petroleum products: in 2023, they accounted for $1.95 billion out of a total of $3.14 billion. The largest American supplies to Algeria are civil aircraft, grain crops and soybeans. The situation in Libya is similar: almost all of the $1.57 billion in exports are oil.

As noted by orientalist Leonid Tsukanov, the issue of imposing retaliatory duties may become the subject of active discussions in parliamentary circles of Arab countries as a natural reaction to Washington's harsh measures. However, according to the expert, most states in the region are highly likely to try to avoid real steps towards trade escalation. The expert explains this caution by the unwillingness of Arab governments to create additional risks for their own economies.

The impact of Trump's tariffs on the BRICS countries

However, the real concern in Washington is not so much oil imports as political trends. Against the background of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 8, the American president announced that the White House would soon impose import duties of 10% on the countries of this association.

Washington is irritated by the strengthening of its position in the Middle East, especially at a time when the region is striving to diversify its foreign policy and reduce dependence on the West.

The threat of new duties against countries demonstrating rapprochement with the BRICS can be seen as a tool of pressure and deterrence. The focus on the Arab world is not accidental: the region remains a key supplier of energy resources and plays an increasingly prominent role in shaping the new global economic architecture. Therefore, any escalation of trade contradictions with states such as Iraq, Algeria or the UAE can affect not only bilateral relations, but also the stability of international markets.

According to orientalist Leonid Tsukanov, the Trump administration is deliberately applying a strategy of inflated trade barriers based on the principle of granting privileges only to those countries that are willing to expand cooperation with the United States.

According to the expert, a similar approach is being used with regard to the Arab states — through economic pressure, the Trump administration is trying to strengthen partnerships, while creating obstacles to the transition of these countries to alternative financial mechanisms, including the BRICS systems.

"This may slow down the pace of convergence of developing economies with BRICS for some time, but it is unlikely to completely discourage interest in the format in the long term," the expert told Izvestia.

Saudi economist Eid Al-Eid believes that this decision will have an impact on the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

"From an economic point of view, we expect that duties will increase export costs for GCC companies, which may reduce their competitiveness in the American market,— the expert told Izvestia. — This can lead to a reduction in exports and revenues of enterprises that depend on the United States. The most vulnerable sectors will be those that have not yet diversified and are heavily dependent on American demand.

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As a result, the tariff policy, initially positioned as a means of restoring the trade balance, is acquiring more and more distinct features of a political instrument. Washington is signaling that any attempts to distance itself from its sphere of influence will have an economic cost.

The media is actively discussing the consequences of the new US tariff measures, which may have different effects on the countries of the Middle East, including those that are members of the BRICS. The UAE, thanks to its diversified economy and trading hub status, mitigates the potential effects of 10% duties. At the same time, UAE steel companies will not face new barriers, which in the future may strengthen the Emirates' position in global metal supply chains.

The Egyptian authorities are still studying possible effects, including the impact on special trade agreements such as QIZ (which allows Egypt to ship products duty-free to the United States with 10% participation of Israeli components in the products). At the same time, the decision may even stimulate Egyptian exports: low duties will increase the country's competitiveness and attract investors looking for ways to circumvent high tariffs in other countries.