We have entered thin ice: NATO is trying to block Russia's access to the Arctic

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, NATO's goal in the Baltic Sea is to prevent Russian shipping and block access to the Arctic. 45 robotic vessels have already been sent to the water area, and Germany has strengthened controls to combat Russian oil tankers. The United Kingdom also intends to support its allies in ensuring the "security of the region," the kingdom's embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. Russia responded by concentrating strong naval and army groups in the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions. The risks of armed conflict in the Baltic Sea are described in the Izvestia article.

NATO intensifies militarization of the Baltic

The North Atlantic Alliance is increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea, creating new risks. Since July 1, Germany has strengthened control in the water area to combat Russia's "shadow fleet." Now passing ships will be required to provide information on insurance coverage in case of damage from oil pollution, the country's Foreign Ministry said. Together with Sweden and other allies, Berlin intends to block the passage of tankers that are allegedly used to transport Russian oil, bypassing sanctions.

Against this background, 45 NATO robotic vessels entered the Baltic Sea — according to the alliance, they are designed "to protect critical infrastructure" under the Baltic Sentry program. Its purpose is to detect ships and control their movement. All this makes navigation in the region difficult, threatening the safety of ships.

Several potentially dangerous incidents have already been recorded in the Baltic Sea area. For example, on May 14, Estonian ships tried to force the Gabonese-flagged Jaguar vessel to change course so that it would leave international waters and approach the shores of Estonia, where it could be captured and sent to the port of Muuga. However, the crew continued their journey with the support of the Russian Su-35 aircraft. On May 18, the Estonian Foreign Ministry announced that the Russian side had allegedly detained the tanker Green Admire at the exit from the port of Sillamae. Later it turned out that the tanker continued to move along the set route.

The militarization of the region has significantly accelerated. The alliance's very belligerent intentions are indicated, in particular, by the geography of the recent Baltops 2025 exercises, which took place in June to the west of the Finnish Porkkala peninsula all the way to the Hanko Peninsula — this is the narrowest point of the Gulf of Finland, where it is easiest to close for the passage of ships. The alliance's leadership considers the Baltic Sea to be a "NATO region," Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said.

At the beginning of the year, the alliance sent a combined squadron to the Baltic Sea, which included up to a dozen ships from different countries. In addition, new ships are being built: the Danish Navy has signed an agreement with the American company Saildrone to use four Voyager drones to monitor the seabed. An important role in this is played by London, which intends to maintain its presence in the region.

"The UK remains committed to its role in ensuring security in the Baltic region through the Joint Expeditionary Force and our commitments to NATO. We continue to work closely with our allies to maintain stability in the region," a representative of the United Kingdom Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.

At the same time, the diplomats noted that the UK's position remains "the same": a meaningful dialogue requires all parties to demonstrate respect for international law and territorial sovereignty.

Robocap: NATO introduces naval drones in the Baltic

The Alliance continues to escalate its aggressive policy

NATO really has intentions to try to restrict Russian shipping in this area, and Poland and, accordingly, the Baltic countries may become the initiators of the decision, Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia. Moreover, the actions of the alliance, including exercises, threaten the possibility of Russia's access to the North Atlantic and the Arctic, Natalia Yeremina, professor at St. Petersburg State University, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia.

— These are complex exercises. For example, they are simultaneously implemented in Finland, Norway and the Baltic Sea. And, as a rule, the potential enemy against whom the exercises are conducted is Russia. They are really large—scale, since they also affect the land units connected with the border territories," said Yeremina.

Earlier it became known that Germany would send warships to the Arctic region to "demonstrate its presence."

— The armed forces of NATO members, including the non—regional Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and France, are increasingly being drawn towards the Norwegian North and the Arctic region, accompanied by empty assurances from Oslo of its alleged continued commitment to maintaining "low tension in high latitudes." The Norwegian authorities do not hide their interest in increasing NATO's military presence and intensifying joint exercises with the allies on their territory, including in the eastern part of the Finnmark province bordering Russia," Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov told Izvestia.

At the same time, there are no military communication channels between Russia and NATO, which significantly increases the likelihood of misunderstandings and dangerous incidents. The intensive militarization of the northern regions of Norway will not strengthen their security, but, on the contrary, will have a destabilizing effect and increase the level of military-political tension and escalation risks in the Arctic, the Russian diplomat added.

Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stressed that "the closure of the Baltic Sea for Russia means the closure of the Baltic Sea for everyone." The conflict situation in the Baltic Sea will mean that all the countries of the region will be drawn into direct confrontation. The economy will also suffer: according to some estimates, the Baltic region accounts for about 15% of exports and 12% of imports in world trade.

How will Russia respond to aggression in the Baltic Sea

Against the background of NATO's actions in the Baltic Sea, Moscow is taking all necessary measures to ensure its security, Alexander Grushko said. The Maritime Board has already prepared proposals for the response, and they have been approved by the President of the Russian Federation, said Nikolai Patrushev, assistant to the head of state and Chairman of the Maritime Board.

Routes across the Baltic Sea are of strategic importance to Moscow. There is a large traffic of civilian vessels from the Leningrad Region, which pass through the Gulf of Finland, the Danish Straits and further beyond the Baltic Sea. Reliable ferry service to our exclave, the Kaliningrad Region, is also important, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.

—Now European countries are trying to stage provocations and put pressure on these communications," the analyst says. — The Nord Stream and Nord Stream–2 gas pipelines were blown up. Unknown vessels tore up our fiber-optic and electrical cables running along the seabed. The Estonians tried to stop — actually capture — the tanker in the waters of the Gulf of Finland. We need to respond to this, which we do by using the necessary forces. Estonians, for example, were driven away from the ship by our aircraft. We maintain strong naval and army groups in the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions.

The sea apart: Sweden decided to fight Russia's "shadow fleet"

Another hot spot has appeared in Russia's confrontation with the West

The expert recalled that the Baltic Fleet, together with the forces of the Leningrad Military District and the Aerospace Forces, constantly conducts exercises that take into account modern challenges.

"In particular, anti—terrorist tasks are being worked out to protect shipping, intercept unfriendly ships not only with the involvement of the fleet, but also aviation," Boltenkov explained. — Baltflot fulfills the tasks of repelling attacks by naval and aerial drones. Ferries and valuable civilian transport began escorting Baltic Fleet warships. The Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions are protected by the Bal and Bastion coastal missile systems, designed to combat enemy ships and coastal facilities. These missile systems have performed well during their military operations, hitting land targets more than once.

The possible actions of a potential enemy are always calculated by the Russian side, Admiral Vladimir Valuev, ex-commander of the Baltic Fleet, told Izvestia.

"If drones are based on ships, their actions are monitored," he said. — At the beginning of the drone attack, they can be destroyed so that the enemy does not have time to use all his forces. The recent military exercises of the Baltic Fleet have confirmed the high level of its combat readiness.

Valuev summarized: Russia has ships and coastal complexes that are capable of destroying the enemy, for example, long—range missiles that can be launched from the territory of the Russian Federation. There are enough options to counter the threat.