Don't let them take it: banks are reluctant to lower consumer loan rates

Banks are reluctant to lower consumer loan rates — only six of the top 15 players did so in June, Izvestia found. On average, interest rates on loans fell by less than 1 percentage point, to 34%. This is despite the fact that at the beginning of last month, the Central Bank unexpectedly lowered the key rate for the market, and at the end it also signaled further policy easing. At the same time, financial institutions are reducing deposit rates much more actively, while loans remain virtually inaccessible. When loans will become cheaper and how this will affect inflation and the ruble exchange rate — in the Izvestia article.

Loan rates in July 2025

Six banks out of the top 15 have lowered real rates on consumer loans, according to data on the websites of credit institutions (Izvestia studied them). In particular, interest rates were reduced in June at Sberbank, Gazprombank, MKB, and Dom Bank.Russian Federation", Ak Bars Bank and Bank Saint Petersburg. The editorial board sent inquiries to these and other major market participants.

The reduction in rates itself is insignificant: the average level of the total cost of loans (CCL — includes not only the rate, but also all additional payments from the borrower, such as insurance) decreased by only 0.7 percentage points over the month, to 34%.

This is still a barrier level — the overpayment on such a loan for an average period of two years will exceed a third of the initial amount.

Banks are reluctant to lower loan rates, although the key rate was lowered to 20% (by 1 percentage point) following the Central Bank meeting on June 6, contrary to market forecasts. In addition, the regulator is giving positive signals on its future decisions and allows for a reduction in the key rate by more than 1 percentage point as early as July if the trend towards slowing inflation becomes stable, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin said on June 30.

At the same time, banks adjust deposit rates more actively. In June, deposit yields decreased in all Russian financial institutions from the top 20, and the average deposit rate for a six-month period fell below 18%, according to a Frank Media study. It turns out that the real interest on loans is now actually twice as high as on deposits.

Ice or flame: how much has the Russian economy cooled

Inflation, lending, and GDP figures indicate a slowdown, but unemployment and investment show economic growth.

But it is precisely the deposit rates that determine the terms of loans. The financial institution issues all borrowed funds at the expense of money from the population and businesses attracted to deposits.

The rates on them exceeded 20% at the beginning of the year, so for now the banks are probably trying to "work out" more expensive funding. Nevertheless, the unplanned reduction in the key rate should have led to a more active renegotiation of loan terms. However, players are trying to make money until lending in general becomes less profitable.

When will the Central Bank lower the key rate

Financial institutions have other reasons why they are in no hurry to make loans more affordable. The fact is that the first reduction in the key rate in June for a long time was insignificant: and in the event of a deterioration in the situation, the Central Bank promised to return to tightening monetary policy, explained Daniil Petukhov, associate professor of the Department of National Economics at the Presidential Academy. In fact, this was a neutral signal to the market, which limited the expectations of players for further policy easing, added Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB.

The dynamics of inflation and lending gives the Central Bank the opportunity to immediately reduce its key rate by 2 percentage points in July, suggested the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Dom Bank.Russian Federation" by Zhanna Smirnova. Expectations have improved markedly in recent weeks, which will lead to a further reduction in consumer loan rates on the market, Dmitry Gritskevich continued.

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Consumer rates are affected not only by the key, but also by the cost of risk — and today it is higher than it was a year ago, independent expert Andrey Barkhota added. In May, the share of overdue loans in the retail lending segment increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.7%, mainly due to unsecured loans, Dmitry Gritskevich said.

— Due to the growing risks, the deterioration of the loan portfolio quality is inevitable. In this regard, banks are not in a hurry to reduce interest rates in order to cover loan losses with a stable interest margin," says Andrey Barkhota.

Meanwhile, lending has cooled significantly over the past year: in May, the volume of loans issued fell by half compared to the same month last year, to 660 billion rubles, according to Frank Media. Low loans reduce interest in imported machinery, which means that demand for dollars is getting lower, and the ruble is strengthening. Accordingly, with a reduction in rates, the national currency exchange rate will go up. In addition, as noted in the Central Bank, if lending slows down, then inflation decreases, as demand in the economy becomes less, and supply catches up with it.

According to Zhanna Smirnova from Dom.If the current dynamics of inflation continues, the key rate may be fixed at 18% by the end of the year, but it may also decrease further to 17%.