Armenian gesture: Yerevan wants to sign peace treaty with Baku as soon as possible
Armenia wants to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan as soon as possible, Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan told Izvestia. On June 20, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Yerevan is counting on Ankara's support in signing an agreement with Baku, experts say. Pashinyan's visit comes amid an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, one of Armenia's important partners in the region. Yerevan is seeking to expand ties with Turkey, but Russia remains Armenia's key military, political and economic partner.
Turkey and the Armenian Genocide
This is the first time that Pashinyan has paid a working visit to Turkey. The Armenian leader traveled to Istanbul accompanied by a high-ranking delegation. He was accompanied by 12 other members of the Armenian government and parliament, including Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Istanbul
The talks between Pashinyan and Erdogan lasted about an hour. The Armenian Prime Minister stressed the importance of his working visit to Turkey and expressed hope that the meeting with the Turkish president would give a "new impetus" to relations between the two countries.
"At the meeting, possible steps to be taken within the framework of the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia were discussed," the office of the Turkish leader said in a statement following the talks.
This is a landmark visit that sets Yerevan's course towards strengthening relations with Ankara, Turkish political analyst Kerim Has believes.
"I would not call this a turning point for bilateral relations, but it is quite an important and symbolic step," he told Izvestia.
Turkey and Armenia do not have diplomatic relations. In addition, the border between the states has been closed since 1993. In January 2022, the first meeting of the special representatives for the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Ankara, Deputy Chairman of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan and former Turkish Ambassador to the United States Serdar Kilic, took place in Moscow.
Interestingly, for many years the main irritant in the relations between Yerevan and Ankara was the issue of recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire in 1915. However, recently the international recognition of the genocide has ceased to be included in Yerevan's foreign policy priorities. At the same time, the program of the Armenian government, adopted in 2021 and designed for five years, states that the Cabinet of Ministers will make every effort for international recognition of the genocide. The opposition in Armenia criticizes this approach.
Tsitsernakaberd is a memorial complex in Yerevan dedicated to the victims of the Armenian Genocide of 1915
— The Armenian society as a whole is split. Naturally, the issue of genocide is extremely important for a significant part of it, and in principle, a significant part of the Armenian society will be hostile to the possibility of such a dialogue with the Turks," Sergei Margulis, senior lecturer at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies at the RANHIGS Presidential Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. — Since Turkey has not reviewed this issue of historical interpretation and is not going to review it, it will obviously be perceived as a sore point. But, on the other hand, I would not expect any major speeches against Pashinyan after that.
Signing of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The leaders of Turkey and Armenia also discussed the worsening situation in the Middle East and the peace process between Yerevan and Baku. On June 19, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev paid a working visit to Turkey. The key problem for Armenia remains the uncertainty surrounding the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In March, Yerevan and Baku fully agreed on the draft peace agreement. The parties are currently carrying out tasks related to the delimitation and demarcation of the border. At the same time, they continue to accuse each other of mutual shelling. Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan emphasizes that Yerevan is ready to sign a peace treaty right now.
"I cannot specify any date for the signing," he told Izvestia on the sidelines of the SPIEF. — We really want this agreement to be signed. The sooner the better.
However, Azerbaijan links the signing of the agreement with two key requirements. First of all, Baku wants Armenia to amend the Constitution. In particular, he objects to the wording in the preamble, which refers to the Declaration of independence of 1990, adopted when Armenia and Azerbaijan were still part of the USSR. It talks about the "reunification" of Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, which at that time was under the jurisdiction of Soviet Azerbaijan. Baku considers this reference to be an illegal and illegitimate claim to its territory and wants to finally close this issue.
Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Mher Grigoryan
Secondly, Azerbaijan demands the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, established in 1992 (co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France), whose goal was the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yerevan expressed its readiness to sign a statement on the dissolution of the group on the day of signing the peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
"Against the background of the fact that Armenia is stalling the settlement process in relations with Azerbaijan, of course, officially Yerevan hopes that Ankara will somehow influence its closest ally," Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. — Therefore, first of all, it is not the relationship between the two countries, but the relationship between the three countries, it is rather a triangle. And in this triangle, of course, there is a third country, Azerbaijan.
Political scientist Kerim Khas also believes that Armenia wants, on the one hand, to normalize relations with Turkey, and on the other, to accelerate the peace process with Azerbaijan as much as possible.
— The Armenian leadership sees that Iran will be greatly weakened in the region, Russia is still preoccupied with the Ukrainian issue, and for the United States, the South Caucasus is one of the most recent problems. The European Union is also more interested in ensuring security in Europe, and Yerevan sees that Ukraine has failed to receive security guarantees. I think this creates a feeling for the Armenian leadership that Turkey can fill the "power vacuum" in the South Caucasus," Kerim Khas said.
The fighting between Iran and Israel has been going on for about a week. Tehran is Armenia's largest partner in the region. At the same time, Yerevan is working out scenarios for responding to the consequences of the conflict, said Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan.
— Iran is our neighbor. We have both infrastructural interdependence and [cooperation] on humanitarian issues. Of course, we must be prepared for any scenarios," he said.
If Tehran is weakened as a result of the conflict, this will negatively affect Armenia's positions and is likely to strengthen the tandem of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which insist on creating the Zangezur Corridor, a road through southern Armenia connecting Turkey with the Caspian Sea coast. Iran was the main opponent of this project, as it cuts off Tehran from the Eurasian Economic Union (EEA) market and strengthens Ankara.
— Now Azerbaijan and Turkey perceive Armenia as weak, ready to give in. Another wave of pressure on Yerevan is likely to begin, both on the issue of the unresolved territories and on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. In my opinion, it is rather naive to expect that this will be a turning point and Turkey will establish exclusively constructive equal relations with Armenia after Pashinyan's visit," says Sergey Margulis, senior lecturer at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies at the RANEPA Presidential Academy of Sciences.
How will Pashinyan's visit to Turkey affect relations between Armenia and Russia
At the same time, Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Turkey, a NATO member, should hardly be considered a threat to Russia's interests in Transcaucasia, the expert believes.
The situation outside the courthouse, where the decision on the choice of a preventive measure for Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan is expected to be announced
"This is once again a demonstration of the multi—vector policy that the Armenian side clearly takes, especially after the defeat in Karabakh, that is, it shows that it no longer hopes for the mechanisms of the CSTO," he said.
Recently, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian businessman of Armenian origin, was detained in Armenia, who is accused of publicly calling for the seizure of power. The Kremlin said it was closely monitoring the case. Pashinyan announced the possibility of nationalizing the "Electric Networks of Armenia", the company belongs to Karapetyan.
In March, the Armenian parliament adopted a bill on its intention to join the European Union. Last year, it became known that Yerevan was purchasing weapons from France. Recently, the Armenian government has been trying to distance itself from Russia, trying to strengthen relations with the West, Kerim Khas notes.
— But it became obvious that Armenia would not succeed in replacing Russia in the military sphere. She will not be able to, say, close the Russian base or withdraw from the CSTO while receiving any security guarantees from the Western bloc," he said.
Last year, Armenia announced the freezing of its participation in the CSTO, but Yerevan stressed that it does not intend to withdraw from the organization. In addition, there is a Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia, which has been in existence since 1995. In early June, Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan held a telephone conversation, during which they confirmed their mutual commitment to comprehensively strengthen relations of strategic partnership and alliance.
Russia and the EAEU countries also remain Armenia's main trading partners. Yerevan's participation in the Eurasian Economic Union ensures the country's sustainable economic growth. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, 10 years ago, when joining the EAEU, Armenia's GDP per capita was about $3.8 thousand, today it has reached $8.5 thousand.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
