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- Due to the absence: cities with a population of one million should switch to 5G as early as 2026
Due to the absence: cities with a population of one million should switch to 5G as early as 2026
The largest cities in Russia are expected to switch to 5G technology in 2026. The new generation of communications will start operating in five million people, in the rest — by 2028. The State Commission for Radio Frequencies (GCRF) has submitted such requirements to the participants of auctions for 5G frequencies, which will be held before the end of the year. However, experts warn that it will not be easy to fulfill these plans — the production of Russian network equipment is in its infancy, the cost of building networks will amount to tens of billions of dollars, and the mechanisms for recouping these costs are not yet obvious. Whether the launch of these networks will take place in 2026 and in which countries 5G is already operating today - in the Izvestia article.
Which cities will have 5G
As early as 2026, five million-plus cities should be covered with 5G cellular communications (there are 16 in total in the Russian Federation), the rest in 2028. This follows from the materials of the State Commission for Radio Frequencies (GCRF), which plans to allocate 4.8–4.99 GHz frequencies for the auction at the end of June. Currently, this is the only available range for the construction of 5G networks in large cities.
By 2027, the auction winners should begin deploying such infrastructure in cities with a population of more than 500 thousand people. To meet all the conditions, 5G must be launched in at least three such localities by this time, and by 2035 there should be 36 of them. Companies will also have to provide fifth—generation connectivity to cities with over 100,000 residents: in two years, networks should be launched in at least 10 of them, and by 2035 - in 80.
— The deployment of fifth—generation (5G) communication networks is a logical and necessary stage of technological development. Currently, Russian operators are already testing this technology. The schedule for covering cities with 5G networks is still being discussed with industry representatives and may be adjusted taking into account the practice of building networks that will take shape, the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia.
They noted that the agency is developing a solution according to which the funds received at auctions will be used to support the construction of operators who are winners of 5G tenders.
"We are in constant contact with Russian base station manufacturers, and the 5G coverage schedule has been developed taking this dialogue into account," the ministry added.
Denis Kuskov, CEO of Telecom Daily, believes that 5G may first appear in Moscow, as well as in cities in the center of the country, for example in the Volga region. According to him, using 5G in the 4.8–4.99 GHz range along the borders of the Russian Federation is problematic due to interference. In addition, he noted that the new generation of communications is planned to be deployed on domestic network equipment — and its production is still in its infancy, it is far from large-scale batches that can quickly cover cities with millions.
According to the plan of the SCR, the auction for frequencies for 5G should be announced no later than the fourth quarter of 2025. Izvestia reported on the plans for its holding and the intention to put up two frequency lots for them (despite the fact that there are four federal mobile operators in the Russian Federation) in early April — subsequently, these plans were confirmed by the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, the department reported that fifth-generation commercial networks would appear in the millionaires by 2030.
In early June, the head of the Ministry of Finance, Maksut Shadaev, reported that the cost of each lot would be at least 20 billion rubles. At the same time, 25% of the amount raised at auctions is planned to be returned to operators as part of measures to support the industry, he noted. At the same time, the four largest Russian cellular companies estimated their costs of deploying 5G networks in Moscow alone at about 100 billion rubles.
T2 believes that the 4.8–4.99 GHz frequency can only be used as an additional frequency due to a number of limitations. The share of smartphones supporting this range is extremely low, it does not allow for effective indoor and building coverage.
— According to our estimates, the construction of a 5G capacitive network on these frequencies within the Moscow Ring Road will cost 100 billion rubles, and the return on investment will take 20-30 years. We still consider the 3.5 GHz band to be optimal in terms of technical characteristics and construction economics. At the same time, successful cases from other countries show that the development of 5G networks requires government support, for example, in the form of tax incentives, spectrum allocation, or construction subsidies.
MTS, Megafon and Vimpelcom declined to comment on the 5G coverage schedule for Russia's largest cities.
Izvestia's sources agree: the auction for 5G frequencies may be the first time in the history of Russia when operators will have to pay money — and a lot of it — for the allocation of bands necessary for the development of a new generation of cellular communications. Previously, companies received these frequencies at competitions.
— The first auction was in 2015 for frequencies in the 1800 MHz band, and they could be used for both GSM and LTE. At the same time, Russian operators have had LTE frequencies since 2011, and GSM frequencies since the early 1990s," one of the market participants recalled.
Minister of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation Maksut Shadaev
Denis Kuskov recalled that 5G networks, which do not yet exist in Russia, have been operating in other countries for almost eight years: the USA, the EU and Asia. However, it is not known whether the launch of these networks will take place in 2026, given the extremely cautious attitude of operators towards the 4.8–4.99 GHz band, he added.
Why do I need a 5G connection?
It is necessary to introduce 5G in Russia — this will help to unload LTE networks, solve the problems of industry and business, which are using more and more automated devices, Denis Kuskov believes. In addition, without the development of 5G, it is impossible to switch to 6G networks and other generations. At the same time, other experts believe that the introduction of 5G in Russia will be a difficult and very expensive task, while the benefits of using a new generation of communications are not yet obvious.
It will be extremely difficult for the auction winners to meet the schedule for covering Russian cities, according to Sergey Polovnikov, head of the Content-Review project. According to him, the cost of 5G in million-plus cities will amount to about 1 trillion rubles (using frequencies of 4.8–4.99 GHz). This is a huge amount for operators, it is not yet known when and how it will pay off, the expert noted.
In addition, operators must use Russian equipment for 5G, and it is unclear when it will go into large—scale production, in particular, due to the lack of the necessary component base in the Russian Federation, he added. In general, the announced plans can be implemented if, to begin with, operators are ordered to cover not the entire city, but at least its central part, about 10% of the territory, the expert believes.
— The schedule is quite difficult to achieve. It is difficult to increase such volumes of 5G installations. Those who buy the frequencies now will monopolize them, and other operators will not be able to use them in any way without their permission or without paying rent for these frequencies to those operators who will buy them now. This creates, in principle, a monopoly and unhealthy competition," said Anton Averyanov, CEO of the ST IT Group of companies, TechNet NTI market expert.
As follows from the draft decision of the SCRC, each of the winners of auctions for 5G frequencies in the 4.8–4.9 GHz and 4.9–4.99 GHz ranges will have to install 2 thousand base stations (BS) in 2026, another 4 thousand in 2027, 6 thousand in 2028, and by By 2035, each of them is required to build at least 75 thousand BS in total.
— The average price of one fifth-generation BS from global vendors is $100-200 thousand. Thus, by 75 thousand BS operator will spend more than $11 billion. Each of the two auction winners in Russia will invest at least another $300 million in the purchase of frequencies. Taking into account the costs of construction, synchronization and operation of the new network, the lower threshold of the operator's launch costs is 75 thousand rubles. BS can be safely estimated at $15 billion," estimated Leonid Konik, a partner at ComNews Research.
At the same time, these 75 thousand have significant coverage. They won't give you a BS: only last year, cellular companies in the Russian Federation installed 30-35 thousand new LTE BS, and the total number of base stations for each player in the Russian market exceeds 320 thousand, he points out. Given the higher frequency range that the government is ready to allocate for 5G, base stations in this network will have to be installed much more often than in LTE, the expert concluded.
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