It is tending to rollback: the dollar is predicted to return to 84 rubles in June.
In early June, the dollar may roll back to 84 rubles, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. At the end of May, it dropped to a two-year low, reaching 76.9 rubles/$ at the moment. The reasons are positive expectations from the new round of Russian—Ukrainian negotiations and a decrease in demand for foreign currency in the domestic market due to the high key interest rate. However, in the first week of summer, analysts expect that the pressure on the ruble will increase — at least the seasonal demand for foreign money in connection with the tourist season will play a role. What other factors can reverse the strengthening of the exchange rate — in the material of Izvestia.
Why did the dollar drop below 77 rubles
At the end of spring, the ruble set new records — on May 30, it updated a two-year high: at the moment, the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market fell below 76 rubles/$, according to the data Investing.com . The last time he was at this level was in May 2023.
The main fundamental reason for the strengthening of the national currency is the demand associated with a high interest in domestic assets against the background of high interest rates, explained Bogdan Zvarich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB. While the key interest rate is at a record high (21%), it is advantageous to keep money on deposits and buy bonds.
Ahead of the regulator's transition to monetary policy easing, which may take place as early as the July meeting, investors prefer to accumulate ruble assets in their portfolio. This, together with the stable situation in oil prices, contributed to the dollar's pullback below 80 rubles.
The second factor that led to the strengthening of the exchange rate is a decrease in imports. It also occurs against the background of a tough PREP: people refuse large purchases such as cars, household appliances, smartphones, because of expensive loans - as a result, sellers need less currency for purchases abroad. In addition, the market fears a further reduction in imports due to the threat of new sanctions, explained independent expert Andrei Barkhota.
As a result, the demand for foreign currency in the domestic market is decreasing: for example, in April (there are no consolidated data for May yet), bank customers bought it for the minimum amount since the imposition of sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, said Sergey Konygin, senior economist at Sinara Bank.
Finally, positive expectations from geopolitics provide significant support for the exchange rate, Zenit Bank stressed. Possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on June 2 have already significantly improved the mood on the Russian stock and foreign exchange markets, summed up Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the financial organization's analytical department.
What will the ruble exchange rate be in the summer of 2025
However, the strengthening of the ruble cannot be sustainable in the long term, experts interviewed by Izvestia warned.
— Russian exporters are now receiving a double blow to their revenue — a decrease in dollar prices for oil, coal and other export goods, on the one hand, and a strengthening of the national currency, on the other (that is, revenues are decreasing in ruble terms). This development negatively affects not only the income of exporters, but also the replenishment of the budget due to taxes collected from them," VTB stressed.
The bank expects the situation with energy prices to worsen in the summer if the price of Brent falls below $60 per barrel. In addition, the sale of foreign currency by exporters will decrease after they allocate a significant portion of its sales to summer dividends, said Sergey Konygin from Sinara Bank.
The tourist season traditionally plays against the national currency. The annual volume of foreign currency purchases for travel will reach $ 30 billion, VTB predicted. This will put moderate pressure on the ruble.
The situation may change as the Bank of Russia begins to lower the rate, VTB added. This will make ruble assets less profitable, Finam experts said. This means that over time, this may cause an outflow of funds from market participants from ruble-denominated instruments and weaken the national currency.
A lot will depend on the geopolitical agenda. With positive world news, the ruble may strengthen at the moment to 65-70 per dollar, Zenit Bank expects. The breakdown of negotiations is likely to lead the US currency to levels above 90 rubles.
— The strengthening of the ruble may continue in the next couple of weeks, but the summer period is traditionally negative for the national currency. Without taking into account geopolitics, the pressure on the ruble in the summer months may be seasonal (due to foreign tourism), as well as fundamental, as a result of low oil prices in May and April," explained Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit.
Stopping the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate is also possible due to increased imports and the discovery of opportunities to optimize government spending, Andrei Barkhota added.
— Next week, the dollar exchange rate will be in the range of 77-81 rubles/$. Further in June, it will shift towards 79-83 rubles, and by the end of summer the exchange rate range will reach 80-85 rubles/$, — Andrey Barkhota believes.
Already in early June, the dollar will trade at 78-84 rubles/$, as expected in Finam.
Yuri Popov, senior analyst at SberCIB Investment Research, predicts stabilization of the ruble at about 80-83 per dollar in the coming months, as demand for the currency will gradually grow. At the same time, its supply from the Central Bank and exporters will remain quite high due to dividends and large tax collections in July, so we can hardly expect a more significant weakening.
At the same time, analysts interviewed by Izvestia expect that by the end of the year the exchange rate of the national currency will inevitably fall to 95-98 rubles/ $. This will happen due to the recovery of imports with a gradual decrease in exports.
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