German lesson: how Scholz was remembered as German Chancellor
The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who takes office on May 6, is characterized by harsh rhetoric towards Moscow and does not even rule out the supply of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine. This could accelerate the escalation in relations between Russia and Germany. The Russian side will primarily look at the actions of the new head of the cabinet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. At the same time, Merz is forced to face big problems at the very beginning of his journey, especially economic ones. May 5 was Olaf Scholz's last day as chancellor. German media say that his "traffic light coalition" managed to fully implement only 45% of the promised projects. He is remembered as an indecisive and weak politician, who at the same time did not bring Germany to a direct confrontation with Russia. What legacy Scholz leaves to Merz is in the Izvestia article.
The results of Olaf Scholz's Chancellorship
Olaf Scholz came to power in 2021 with an ambitious program based on a coalition agreement between Svetofor, an alliance of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). However, his reign was accompanied by internal contradictions, economic difficulties, and an inability to fulfill key promises. According to Die Welt, of the 453 projects announced in the coalition agreement, only 45% have been fully implemented, and another 7% have been partially completed. For comparison, Angela Merkel's governments fulfilled up to 80% of their obligations.
This three-party alliance has been under great strain from the very beginning, Wolfgang Wiele, a member of the Bundestag from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, tells Izvestia.
— The FDP, which partly belonged to the middle class, submitted to the pressure of its left-wing partners, but lost sight of the problems of its own electorate. When she tried to strengthen her position, it led to the collapse of the coalition, but she failed to regain the trust of the voters," he told Izvestia.
Scholz's main failure was the economic downturn. Inflation, the energy crisis following the abandonment of Russian hydrocarbons, including due to the disruption of Nord Streams, and industrial stagnation have led to a drop in living standards. According to INSA, 67% of Germans are dissatisfied with his work, and 72% criticize the activities of the entire coalition.
—Scholz has not found any recipes for reforms," German political scientist Alexander Rahr told Izvestia. "He has not solved the problem of migration: the number of newcomers and crimes among them has increased. He has been criticized for being indecisive in his dealings with Russia, although in his defense it can be said that he has avoided direct confrontation.
Indeed, Scholz, while supporting Ukraine and transferring weapons, refused to supply long-range Taurus missiles to the last, fearing Germany's involvement in the conflict. His rhetoric remained restrained, which contrasted with the harsh statements of the EU partners.
"At the same time, he neglected Berlin's status in Europe and special relations with Russia, without doing anything for peacemaking," Rahr added.
The internal political challenges were aggravated by the split in society. The AfD party has gained great popularity. According to some studies, 70% of Germans consider it right-wing extremist, and half support its ban. Scholz called the decision of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution to assign the appropriate status to the AfD a reason for "careful discussion." However, as emphasized by Bundestag deputy Ville, its ban will cause mass protests, because a quarter of voters will lose their preferred party.
— Under the leadership of established parties in Germany, many authorities are trying to politically discriminate against AfD and thereby distort political competition in their favor. However, the prohibition of AfG can be imposed only on the basis of a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court. Currently, it is not expected, there is not even a corresponding statement, and there is no reason for it, since the AfD is an unconditionally democratic party," the German parliamentarian noted.
Against the background of these problems, Scholz leaves office, leaving a legacy that the German media call a "heavy burden." His caution in foreign policy may have saved Germany from a greater escalation with Russia, but it did not boost the party's ratings.
— Scholz was a weak chancellor. His policy of euthanasia has not solved either internal or external crises," Rahr concluded.
What to expect from the new head of the Cabinet Friedrich Merz
Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, takes office as chancellor at a time when Germany is teetering on the brink of recession and the foreign policy situation is tense to the limit. His first statements leave no doubt: Berlin's course will become tougher, especially with regard to Moscow. "The Europeans are already supplying cruise missiles. When this is agreed, Germany should participate," Merz said, hinting at possible deliveries of the Taurus. This is the exact opposite of Scholz's position, who called such steps a "provocation."
Russia will carefully study both the words and actions of the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
— His statements do not signal a willingness to normalize relations. Merz is a supporter of steps leading to escalation,— Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing, answering a question from Izvestia.
At the same time, Russia is open to mutually beneficial, mutually respectful relations with all countries, and "we are ready to develop these relations as deeply and widely as these countries themselves are ready," Peskov said.
Obviously, the transfer of the Taurus will create a situation in which normalization of relations between Moscow and Berlin will become unlikely, given the need for the participation of German specialists in their operation. However, there are many difficulties in relations between Russia and Germany even without this. So far, for example, the German side has not provided Russia with any information about the investigation of the Nord Stream explosions. On May 5, Donald Trump said that he knows who committed the sabotage, and can even tell about it. He also rejected one of the Western versions about Russia's involvement in this. It is worth noting that earlier it was reported that the United States, Norway and Ukraine may be involved in the bombings.
Leaks on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream–2 gas pipelines
Merz's main problem will be the economy. According to media reports, he plans to spend up to €800 billion on infrastructure projects and defense, although the option of spending less on these needs is also being considered — €500 billion. At the same time, the Bundestag has already approved the reform of the "debt brake". The bill suggests easing restrictions on government borrowing, which will allow Berlin to increase defense spending. Before the vote, German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz said that increasing military spending would be the "first great step" towards creating a European defense community.
Merz's foreign policy risks deepening the rift with Russia and complicating relations with the United States, where current President Donald Trump is trying to resume dialogue with Moscow, including on the Ukrainian settlement. If Berlin starts supplying Taurus, it will not only intensify the conflict in Ukraine, but also create tension in transatlantic relations.
"Merz wants to see Germany as the leader of European security, but the price of this status may be too high," Rahr concluded.
Probably, the new head of the cabinet will not be able to solve the fundamental problems. His government will be a coalition government, and disputes on key issues can arise very quickly inside. The problem is that German society is split, and if the new authorities fail to resolve the current crises quickly, their ratings will begin to fall. Do not forget that Trump and the current US administration openly support the AFD, and this can hit the ratings of the ruling coalition. Nevertheless, Berlin's inability to establish a dialogue with its main overseas partner is a cause for reflection for many residents of Germany.
At the same time, Trump has leverage. American troops are currently stationed in Germany — the headquarters of the European Command of the US Armed Forces (EUCOM), which exercises key command of American military operations in Europe, is located in the suburbs of Stuttgart. Earlier, the media reported that Trump is exploring the possibility of withdrawing 35,000 US troops from Germany and then deploying them to Hungary.
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