Flour of aid: Romania may stop the transit of weapons to Ukraine

The possible victory of the leader of the right-wing Alliance for the Unification of Romanians party, George Simion, in the presidential election may call into question the transit of Western military aid to Ukraine through Romania, according to the expert community. According to the results of the first round, which took place on May 4, the politician confidently beat his rivals, gaining about 41% of the vote. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolaku has already announced that he is resigning, and his party will leave the ruling coalition. Simion is known as an opponent of aid to Ukraine and a Trump supporter. The size of military supplies to Ukraine from Romania could amount to hundreds of millions of euros from the beginning of its military operation, the Russian Embassy in Bucharest told Izvestia. Why the republic is important to NATO and what to expect from the next round of voting is in the Izvestia article.

Will Romania stop providing military assistance to Ukraine

The head of the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) party, opposition candidate George Simion, won the Romanian presidential election in the first round. According to the Central Election Commission, he scored almost 41%. George Simion is known for the idea of uniting Romania and Moldova, while opposing the supply of military aid to Ukraine. Last year, the Kiev regime banned him from entering the country due to "systematic anti-Ukrainian activities."

Since February 2022, Romania has been providing assistance to Ukraine, including military assistance. The transit of foreign weapons and military equipment is carried out through the territory of the country. Bucharest does not disclose the volume and range of military products supplied to the Armed Forces, explaining that this information is a state secret. The only exception was the highly publicized delivery of the Patriot air defense system at the end of 2024.

According to local media, 23 T-72 tanks, 23 Grad MLRS and their Romanian counterparts, amphibious armored personnel carriers, armored vehicles, 152-mm 2C1 Gvozdika howitzers, significant volumes of 122-mm and 152-mm shells, ammunition for mortars and small arms.

— The media, citing the National Institute of Statistics, reports that in 2024 the total volume of arms exports from Romania amounted to €864 million, "and 90% of the products were shipped outside the EU, primarily to Ukraine." The main exporters are the state-owned corporations Romtehnica and Romarm. Thus, the size of military supplies, based on these data, can amount to hundreds of millions of euros," the Russian Embassy in Romania told Izvestia.

However, it is clear that Romania is far from Kiev's main military donor. Most of the aid comes from the United States, Germany, Great Britain, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Italy. Romania is primarily important from a geopolitical point of view. So, in the middle of last year, former US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recognized its key role on the eastern flank of NATO.

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The alliance's troops have worked to protect the routes through which weapons are delivered to Ukraine, experts say.

In March 2024, it became known that the largest military base of the alliance in Europe would appear on the territory of the state. It was reported that it could be deployed by 2040 after the expansion of the 57th Airbase of the Mikhail Kogalniceanu Air Force.

Now, if George Simion wins in the second round, the question remains whether Romania will retain its function as a country through which weapons are transited to Ukraine.

— If this function is abandoned, various levers of pressure from Brussels are possible. That is, it is clear that Bucharest will in any case twist its arms and adjust to the continuation of this transit. Romania, most likely, will slow it down," Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, told Izvestia.

In 2024, the Republic approved the transit of military equipment to Ukraine and the training of 50 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In October 2023, it became known that an F-16 fighter pilot training center would be opened in Romania, where the Ukrainian military would be trained.

It should be borne in mind that the constitutional powers of the Romanian President are limited. The country's policy, both external and internal, is determined by the government, which is formed based on the results of parliamentary elections and approved by the majority. Although George Simion has not publicly questioned Romania's membership in the EU and NATO, it cannot be ruled out that the country may oppose military assistance to Ukraine.

"Of course, being part of the EU, decisions of this level should be coordinated at all levels (national and supranational), but no one has deprived Romania of the right to express its will and, hopefully, will not be deprived," HSE analyst Nicole Bodisteanu told Izvestia.

Who will win in the second round of elections in Romania

In any case, the country's future foreign policy and its further cooperation with Ukraine depend on the results of the second round of voting, which is scheduled to take place on May 18. George Simion and the independent candidate, Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who gained about 21%, are going there. The third place in the first round was taken by the candidate from the ruling coalition, Crin Antonescu, who received 20.07% of the vote. Following the vote, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolaku announced that he was resigning, and his party was withdrawing from the ruling coalition.

The current presidential election is a repeat one. They are taking place in the context of a political crisis after the annulment of the results of the first vote, which took place on November 24, 2024. Then the right-wing candidate Kaelin Georgescu won, gaining 22% of the vote.

Georgescu openly criticized the EU and NATO, opposed military support for Ukraine and called for the restoration of relations with Russia. This, predictably, provoked a sharp reaction and criticism from pro-Western elites. Under the pretext of violations related to the TikTok campaign, the country's authorities annulled the election results and canceled the second round. In addition, officials hinted at Russian interference in the election campaign to justify such a drastic decision. Although no evidence of this was provided. The cancellation of the elections provoked a political crisis, which was accompanied by a wave of indignation both inside and outside the country.

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Both George Simion and Kalyn Georgescu are politicians from the "Trump team," emphasizes Alyona Arshinova, deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, chairman of the Council of the Autonomous Non—Profit Organization Eurasia. They are the catalysts for Trump's line on rebooting the European Union.

"Simion's victory in the second round is more than likely, and therefore comprehensive actions by both Romanian and European liberals should be expected to prevent such a scenario," she told Izvestia.

But at the same time, the current picture of the Romanian elections poses a challenge to all players in the region, including the Russian Federation.

— Simion may be characterized in the Romanian press as a politician with alleged ties to the FSB, but in fact he is hardly one. As part of this election campaign, he described himself as a Trump supporter and "the savior of Romanian democracy." In the case of building a foreign policy in unison with the course of the current American administration, such a scenario for the development of bilateral relations can hardly be called a "comfort zone" for both states," the deputy added.

It is possible that the second round of elections will be very tough, filled with compromising material, violent actions and falsification. However, regardless of the outcome of this struggle, it can already be argued that the Romanian people are not satisfied with the "European yoke" and this is a good sign for Russia, the politician concluded.