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Warsaw Conversation: The United States is pushing its interests in Europe through the "Three Seas Initiative"
The Three Seas Initiative is preparing Eastern Europe for a potential conflict with Russia by building a dual-use infrastructure, experts say. Montenegro and Albania will become members of this association, said Polish President Andrzej Duda. Washington uses the organization to promote its energy projects, primarily nuclear power plants and LNG. At the same time, it will not be possible to completely abandon the dialogue with the Russian Federation, the Estonian parliament said. The disagreements within the "Three Seas Initiative" are described in the Izvestia article.
Leaders of the Three Seas Initiative gathered in Warsaw
The 10th anniversary summit of the Three Seas Initiative is taking place in Warsaw on April 28-29. More than 20 high-level delegations are taking part in the event. It is planned to outline plans for the development of the association for the next ten years. Given that Poland holds the presidency of the EU Council, this summit will affect the entire policy of the union in the eastern direction. The initiative will be expanded with new countries: Montenegro and Albania will join as associated member states, and Turkey and Spain will become partners, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced.
The Three Seas Initiative was launched in 2015 and unites Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Estonia. In 2022, Ukraine received the status of a participating partner, and a year later it was granted to Moldova. Formally, the organization is engaged in infrastructure development and investment promotion, but in fact the "Three Seas Initiative" is aimed at implementing the so—called "Intermarium" - a strategy to strengthen Poland's position in Eastern Europe.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright at the Three Seas Initiative Summit at the Belvedere Palace in Warsaw
US President Donald Trump attended the Initiative summit in 2017 during his first term. He was invited this time, but the United States is represented by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The participants of the Three Seas Initiative rely on Washington rather than Brussels for energy issues. For example, Poland and the United States have signed a new agreement on the construction of the first Polish nuclear power plant, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. The parties also discussed the supply of American LNG to Eastern Europe.
"We are making Poland and Europe independent of Russian supplies. And, perhaps, in this way, it will be possible to provide gas to Ukraine without additional charges through our American-Polish cooperation," said US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.
Back during Donald Trump's first term in 2020, the United States and Poland signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of expansion, modernization and development of the republic's nuclear energy program. As part of the agreements, it was planned to build six nuclear reactors in Poland. The construction of the first nuclear power plant in the republic is going to begin in 2028, and commissioning is scheduled for 2036.
The military sphere is becoming increasingly important in the EU, and against this background, the "Three Seas Initiative" is also gaining new significance. Despite the great contradictions between the individual countries of this association, they are increasingly aware of the existence of some common interests, especially in dealing with Brussels and Washington, Oleg Nemensky, a researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
— We see that the organization is expanding. We are talking about Finland's accession, and all those infrastructure projects that were originally supposed to be economically profitable are now turning out to be significant as dual-use facilities. This infrastructure can be used in a future military conflict with Russia," the expert said.
It is worth noting that most of the countries from the Three Seas Initiative comply with NATO's requirement to allocate at least 2% of GDP for military spending. Poland spent 4% in 2024, Estonia — 3.43%, Latvia — 3.15%, Greece — 3.08%, and Lithuania — 2.85%. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia also invested more than 2% of GDP in defense in 2024.
The Three Seas Initiative is also important because it can become an alternative platform for integration if the EU runs into problems. Poland is particularly promoting this initiative, focusing on its ability to resist the Russian Federation, Nikolai Mezhevich, chief researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
Who is ready to cooperate with Russia
However, the countries of the organization also have a natural demand to restore ties with Russia. Even in the Baltics, they recognize the inevitability of dialogue with the Russian Federation due to its proximity. After the end of the Ukrainian conflict, cross-border cooperation and the restoration of trade turnover may become topics for discussion. This was stated to Izvestia by deputies of the Estonian Parliament Andrei Korobeinik (Center Party) and Kalle Grunthal (independent).
— After the war, of course, the situation will need to be assessed anew. We have a common border, and there is a dialogue on some everyday issues," Korobeinik told Izvestia.
It should be recalled that in 2014-2020 there was a program of cross-border cooperation between the Russian Federation and Estonia. Projects were implemented to improve the environmental situation and develop transport links in the waters of the Pskov-Peipsi reservoir, the border areas of the two countries received investments in the amount of €34.2 million.
A similar cross-border cooperation has been developing with Latvia, the demarcation of the border with which was completed in 2018. However, after the start of the Free Economic Revolution, the authorities of the Baltic countries tore up these programs, and also intensified Russophobic rhetoric, effectively banning education in Russian.
"After the conflict in Ukraine is resolved through negotiations, all doors will be open," said Estonian MP Grunthal in an interview with Izvestia.
However, the prospects for restoring normal cooperation still remain extremely unlikely. According to Nikolai Mezhevich, as long as the current Baltic model exists, it is more likely that relations with Poland or Western European countries will improve.
At the same time, not all participants in the "Initiative" take an anti-Russian position. Slovakia and Hungary are calling for an immediate end to the conflict in Ukraine, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said at a meeting with his Hungarian counterpart. Both countries insist on dialogue with the Russian Federation, and their leaders visited Moscow and held talks with Vladimir Putin in 2024. In addition, Bratislava and Budapest are against Ukraine's membership in NATO, they do not intend to supply Kiev with weapons.
Their position on sanctions is also different: while Poland and nine other EU countries are calling for a ban on Russian gas imports, Hungary and Slovakia, on the contrary, are defending its supplies. Hungary and Slovakia will also insist on exemption from sanctions for the purchase of oil, since they have no access to the sea, Viktor Orban said. Earlier, Izvestia found out that the European Commission had not set a final date for the exceptions to the embargo on Russian oil supplies to these two countries.
"Within the framework of the Three Seas Initiative, which is primarily aimed at developing infrastructure projects, the position of Hungary and Slovakia does not play any fundamentally negative role that could disrupt the activities of this organization," Nemensky said.
There is no contradiction in the presence of Hungary and Slovakia in the "Three Seas Initiative", as it is quite amorphous. It is beneficial for Bratislava and Budapest to have an observer position in such processes, concluded Mezhevich.
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