On the exit of the movement: the United States begins a phased withdrawal of troops from Syria

The United States has decided to halve the number of its troops in Syria and begin their phased withdrawal in the coming months, according to media reports. On April 16, the US military had already abandoned the largest fields in Deir ez-Zor. Plans to reduce the contingent have been communicated to the Israeli allies. The Jewish state fears that the withdrawal of American troops from the Arab republic will lead to a security vacuum that Turkey will fill. At the same time, uncertainty remains about the future of the international coalition in neighboring Iraq. Baghdad is waiting for the final position of the United States on the completion of the mission of the international coalition.

The United States has begun withdrawing troops from Syrian oilfields.

Washington is preparing for major changes in its strategy in Syria. Two U.S. officials told Reuters that the Pentagon plans to reduce the number of troops stationed in the Arab Republic in the coming months. One of the agency's sources clarified that it could be a question of reducing the contingent to about a thousand people, that is, almost twice. On April 16, it became known about the withdrawal of American troops from the largest Koniko and Omar fields in rural areas of Deir ez-Zor.

At the same time, not everyone in Washington is convinced of the expediency of such a step. One of the agency's sources said that doubts remain about such a large-scale reduction in the contingent, especially against the background of the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran on the nuclear deal.

— Syria is no longer a strategic priority for the United States. Earlier, Washington assessed the situation in the republic through the prism of key threats — terrorism, Iran's activity, risks to Israel's security, as well as opposition to Russian influence. However, now all these factors have lost their relevance, and, as a result, the US interest in the Syrian direction has significantly decreased," Vladimir Akhmedov, a researcher at the Center for the Study of General Problems of the Modern East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

According to the Ynet portal, Washington regularly informs the Israeli military about what is happening. The authorities of this country are seriously concerned: the consequences of a possible withdrawal of American troops are being carefully analyzed. The Jewish state fears that even a partial reduction in the US contingent could dramatically change the balance of power in the region.

The main concern is the threat of strengthening Turkey, which has been openly seeking to expand its influence in the region since the change of power in Damascus. At the moment, American troops are deployed in key areas in eastern and northern Syria. The Israeli military fears that their withdrawal will provoke Ankara to seize new strategic facilities.

The meeting of Israeli and Turkish representatives in Azerbaijan on April 10 was devoted to technical issues, including the creation of a conflict prevention mechanism in Syria. According to one of Ynet's diplomatic sources, Israel has made it clear that any changes in the presence of foreign troops in Syria — especially the possible deployment of Turkish bases in the Palmyra area — will be perceived as crossing a red line and violating trust.

US presence in Syria

At the moment, there are about 2 thousand American troops in Syria. They interact with local formations, primarily with the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF).

It is the Kurdish formations, which in the past relied on the support of the United States, that may find themselves in the most vulnerable position. The reduction of the American presence not only weakens their protection, but also gives Turkey the opportunity to conduct new operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara considers terrorist.

Against the background of these signals, on March 10, the SDF signed an agreement with the Government of the SAR. According to the document, Kurdish militant groups and civilian structures will be transferred to Syrian state institutions. Reports of the withdrawal of American troops largely influenced the decision of the Kurdish leaders: the SDF were forced to look for new ways to ensure their own security.

Washington's plans are unfolding against the backdrop of attempts by the United States to establish a limited dialogue with official Damascus. In March, the American side handed over to the Syrian authorities a list of conditions, the fulfillment of which could lead to a partial easing of sanctions. Among them are the destruction of the remaining stocks of chemical weapons, cooperation in the fight against terrorism, the prevention of senior positions by foreign fighters and assistance in the search for American Austin Tice, a journalist who disappeared in Syria 12 years ago.

However, the Trump administration is not actively cooperating with the Syrian leadership and has not yet demonstrated its readiness for a broader political dialogue.

The International Coalition in Iraq

In parallel with the events in Syria, the future of the international coalition in neighboring Iraq is also being discussed. An official source from this republic told Izvestia that Baghdad has not yet received a final response from Washington regarding the future of the American contingent.

— We are awaiting the position of the US administration regarding the continued military presence of the Americans. The completion of the international coalition's mission will give Iraq the opportunity to independently determine to what extent it needs foreign forces," Baghdad said.

In September 2024, it became known that the international coalition led by the United States had decided to end its military mission in Iraq. The schedule and all stages have already been agreed upon. It was assumed that the withdrawal of coalition troops would take place no later than the end of September 2025, and the coalition's mission in Syria would end by September 2026.

The official reason for the presence of the international coalition in Iraq is the fight against terrorist groups, primarily the Islamic State (ISIL, IS, a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Although this extremist organization has lost a significant part of the territory under its control, it retains the ability to carry out terrorist attacks and guerrilla operations.

Despite the fact that officials in Baghdad declare the readiness of the republic's Armed Forces to fill the security vacuum after the withdrawal of coalition troops, the threat of ISIS remains. There are still vulnerabilities in the army: lack of weapons in the field of intelligence, security, air defense, air Force and even in the field of artillery.

From the point of view of geopolitics, the redistribution of the US military presence may encourage regional players to step up their actions: Turkey to attack the Kurdish areas, Iran to regain its positions in Syria. Israel, in turn, will seek to maintain American support and is likely to begin increasing military pressure on Damascus.