Trade raft: China strengthens ties with Southeast Asia due to US pressure

The US duties imposed on Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia open up a window of opportunity for China to strengthen economic cooperation with them, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Meanwhile, the expert community believes that China's partners in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will not completely sever trade ties with the United States and may even impose protective duties to avoid an influx of Chinese goods. The topic of countering American hegemony was raised in Hanoi yesterday by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who arrived in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur on April 15 as part of a tour that will end in Cambodia. The choice of these three countries by the Chinese leader is clear — ASEAN remains the republic's main trading partner today. The advantages and risks of strengthening economic cooperation with Beijing are described in the Izvestia article.

Xi Jinping's tour of Southeast Asia

Chinese President Xi Jinping continues his tour of Southeast Asian countries. After Vietnam, where he met with his counterpart Toh Lam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chin on April 14, the Chinese leader arrived in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on April 15. After that, he will visit Cambodia. This is Xi Jinping's first trip abroad this year.

Xi's tour is taking place against the backdrop of the United States' promotion of the tough tariff policy that US President Donald Trump has chosen in relation to China and its partners. For Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, the duties amounted to 46%, 24% and 49%, respectively. After representatives of these and other countries requested talks with the United States on the issue, Trump agreed to a 90-day postponement. However, it does not apply to China, which is subject to 145% tariffs.

Xi Jinping raised the topic of duties in Hanoi. According to him, China and Vietnam "should maintain high-level cooperation, strengthen strategic contacts and jointly resist hegemony, unilateralism and protectionism." He believes that both countries are obliged to make full use of their geographical advantages, strengthen strategic coherence, promote cooperation in infrastructure development and ensure uninterrupted trade.

The US duties imposed on China and Southeast Asian countries may open a window of opportunity for Beijing, given that ASEAN is the first trading partner for China, Kirill Kotkov, an orientalist and head of the MAIS Center for the Study of the Far East in St. Petersburg, explained to Izvestia.

— If the United States closes its market to China, the latter will be forced to reorient itself to other markets, including Southeast, Central and South Asia, Africa and Russia. Of course, not everything is so clear with the US market, because China's trade with the United States through third countries cannot be discounted," he added.

Indeed, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in 2024, the volume of trade between the Chinese side and the ASEAN member states increased by 7.8%, reaching $982.33 billion. At the same time, the indicator increased by only 0.4% with the EU, reaching $785.82 billion, and with the United States — by 3.7%, amounting to $688.28 billion.

At the same time, according to the expert, it cannot be ruled out that the Chinese stalls will be afraid of an influx of Chinese goods.

— They can kill the local industry, because it will not be able to compete in price with Chinese goods. To protect themselves, these countries, whether they want to or not, will be forced to impose protective duties. This is especially true of countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, which are doing better economically than, say, Laos," the orientalist pointed out.

Will China's partners make concessions to the Trump administration

However, if we talk about Vietnam, then immediately after Washington announced the imposition of duties, Hanoi expressed its willingness to make concessions to the Trump administration. Thus, the Vietnamese authorities not only want to buy more American goods and reset import tariffs, but also promise, according to Reuters, to strengthen control over the re-export of Chinese goods to the United States and tighten trade rules with China.

— Vietnam surrendered first, because it needs support in case of confrontation with China, with which it has historically had difficult relations. Vietnam remains a temporary ally for the United States in Southeast Asia, and the Vietnamese government has good relations with the United States. There are no sanctions imposed on the country, and the stable political regime that exists in Vietnam is completely acceptable to the United States," the expert said.

In any case, now, while the 90-day pause for the introduction of US duties is in effect, Vietnamese factories are seeing a surge in orders from the United States. For example, the South China Morning Post cites the example of the owner of a furniture factory in Hanoi, who first lost many customers after Trump imposed tariffs, and then faced an influx of new ones as soon as the US president announced a pause.

Nevertheless, the trade war is in Beijing's favor and will certainly push the countries of Southeast Asia to cooperate more closely with China, Yulia Melnikova, head of the Asia-Eurasia program area of the INF Treaty, is confident.

— We have seen the example of Russia: certain shock therapy has already accustomed countries to the fact that it is necessary not to wait out, but to strive proactively to fill existing deficits. And the situation artificially created by Trump, in which China needs to look for new markets, gives Beijing foreign policy points rather than takes them away. Especially when it is obvious to the whole world that the situation is caused not so much by Chinese trade practices as by American economic voluntarism," she told Izvestia.

The expert pointed to the EU countries, which, amid tensions with Washington, are returning to considering China as an alternative partner to the United States. In this sense, the example of Spain is indicative. At a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on April 11, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said his country "will always work to strengthen strong and balanced relations between China and the EU." In turn, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on April 14 that the republic was ready to "cooperate with the international community, including the European Union," as well as "jointly protect the rules of international trade, honesty and fairness."

However, given the primacy of the American economy, it cannot be ruled out that the countries of Southeast Asia will make concessions to the United States if they have the opportunity, continues Yulia Melnikova. But sooner or later, the world will come to understand that the Chinese factor should not be a momentary, but a long-term solution to diversify economic ties. And this applies not only to the period of the Trump presidency or the moments of escalation of trade disputes, but also to a longer-term perspective, the expert concluded.