The key to stop: who can block the delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine

Supplies of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine will not change the balance of forces on the battlefield, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev told Izvestia. At the same time, the transfer of these weapons to Kiev will lead to a "qualitatively new situation," since modern long-range weapons such as the Taurus cannot be serviced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on their own, the diplomat stressed. Earlier, the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Berlin would supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles if this decision was approved by European partners. The Bundestag believes that the SPD, a future CDU ally— may try to block the decision to send the Taurus. Whether Merz will escalate the conflict against the background of the peace process between the Russian Federation and the United States is in the Izvestia article.

Germany may supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who is to lead the new German government, allows the shipment of Taurus long-range missiles to Kiev in coordination with European partners.

"The Europeans are already supplying cruise missiles. The British do it, the French do it, and so do the Americans. This must be agreed, and when it is agreed, Germany will have to participate in this," he said in an interview with ARD.

Merz, who positions himself as a proponent of "decisive action," clearly contrasts his position with the cautious line of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The latter has repeatedly rejected the idea of supplying Taurus, emphasizing: "There will be no permission to use long—range weapons supplied from Germany to strike deep into Russian territory, and this will remain the case." Scholz did not hide his fears that the transfer of such systems would turn Berlin into a participant in the conflict.

—Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken out about what the supply of foreign long—range lethal weapons to Ukraine could mean," Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev told Izvestia. — First of all, it will not change the situation on the front line in any way. Secondly, it will in no way change the balance of power on the battlefield. And thirdly, I would say this could lead to a qualitatively new situation, because modern long-range weapons, including the Taurus, cannot be serviced by the Ukrainian military on their own.

So, the question arises who will direct, who will shoot, who will serve, says the diplomat. And, according to him, in this case it does not matter at all whether it will be carried out in coordination with NATO allies or without. "In my opinion, this is a very serious step that deserves every regret," Sergei Nechaev added.

He also expressed the hope that responsible German politicians had heard Vladimir Putin's warnings and understood the consequences of such steps.

— This is completely contrary to the negotiations at the highest level, including between Russia and the United States on a lasting long-term peace while eliminating the root causes of the conflict, which we are talking about all the time. Let's hope that sensible, reasonable German politicians will hear this signal," the ambassador said.

However, Merz probably sees this step as an opportunity to strengthen Germany's position as the leader of European security. In the new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreement, Russia is named the "main threat", which sets the ideological background for a more aggressive foreign policy. At the same time, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted, "Merz is a proponent of toughening positions and steps that will lead to an escalation of the conflict." The Russian side unequivocally warns that the delivery of Taurus will create a "qualitatively new situation," given that their operation will require the participation of German specialists.

Olaf Scholz blocked the transfer of Taurus missiles to avoid a direct clash with Moscow. He is aware of the risks of involving the Bundeswehr in the conflict. Scholz understands that only German specialists can manage the Taurus, which means that representatives of Germany can be in Ukraine or even directly at the front, said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.

"Scholz consulted and realized that this should not be done, because the Bundeswehr's participation in pointing missiles at Russian territory could be interpreted as participation in a conflict and could push Moscow and Berlin together," he told Izvestia. — Merz has a different opinion. He downplays the role of Russia, since all the information he has is media data and what Ukrainians and the British write.

The political scientist noted that Merc relies heavily on media narratives, which are dominated by calls for "Ukraine's victory."

How does Taurus differ from Storm Shadow and Scalp

Germany's decision to consider supplying Taurus is not only a military, but also a symbolic gesture. Missiles with a range of over 500 km are capable of reaching Crimea, Donbas and many Russian border regions. As military expert Dmitry Kornev explained to Izvestia, the Taurus is designed to destroy protected facilities such as command posts, airfields and runways. "It can be used against any concrete structures, for example, such as the Crimean Bridge," he added. However, according to the expert, Russian air defenses are capable of intercepting such missiles.

— There is currently no 100% guaranteed protection against them, as well as from the British Storm Shadow and the French Scalp. That is, if they are used during operations to break through air defense, then some of these missiles can overcome it," Dmitry Kornev emphasized. — But for their use, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to re-equip their aircraft. And this will take some time: there may not be any aircraft ready for the use of such missiles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine right now.

The story of the supply of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine, however, shows that Western weapons do not always meet expectations. The media, citing classified data, report the failures of these tanks at the front: their vulnerability to drones, the difficulty of repair and the small number in Kiev make Leopard more of a propaganda than a strategic asset. There is a similar risk with the Taurus: their use will require re-equipment, and a small number of missiles can quickly be exhausted.

Why does Berlin want the conflict to escalate

Berlin raises the stakes as Washington and Moscow try to resolve the conflict. US President Donald Trump maintains contacts with the Kremlin on a variety of issues, from the Ukrainian settlement to bilateral normalization. Peskov called Putin's talks with Trump adviser Steve Witkoff "extremely useful." However, European allies, including Germany, see this as a threat to their influence. Alexander Rahr notes: "Merz wants to lead a coalition of European countries that would throw everything at the Ukrainian front now. Not a soldier, but weapons and money."

Experts agree: Taurus shipments will become a point of no return. Kiev, having received such missiles, may try to attack the infrastructure of the Russian Federation, which will provoke retaliatory strikes. It is worth noting that the Russian army, despite Kiev's provocations, strikes exclusively at military facilities, but the escalation from the West is changing the rules of the game.

At the same time, Scholz, even when he leaves, leaves Merz an ambiguous legacy: European partners such as France, Great Britain, and Poland may support the initiative, but countries like Hungary or Slovakia will try to convince Merz not to take the path of escalation. This situation cannot be compared with the approval or blocking of sanctions, which some EU countries manage to do — Budapest or Bratislava do not have a veto on the issue of arms supplies to specific states of the union, but there is a mechanism for persuasion.

At the same time, the Bundestag emphasizes that the Social Democratic Party of Olaf Scholz may prevent Merz from handing over the Taurus to Ukraine.

— The SPD, Merz's partner in the ruling coalition, does not support the transfer of the Taurus to Ukraine. The Social Democrats can block this decision," Gerold Otten, a member of the Bundestag defense committee, told Izvestia.

In addition, the CDU leader's aggressive statements are based on very limited data. Alexander Rahr believes: "as soon as Merz sits in the chancellor's chair and receives all the information, as well as accepts responsibility for his future actions, he may change his point of view."