System unit: the CSTO is concerned about the situation in Afghanistan

The CSTO is concerned about the growing threats in the provinces of Afghanistan adjacent to the Central Asian region, the organization's secretariat told Izvestia. They added that the territory of Afghanistan remains a source of challenges related to terrorism, extremism, and drug crime. Against this background, Tajikistan is ready to begin the first stage of the CSTO program to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border. At the same time, the exclusion of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations may encourage Kabul to work more closely with neighboring countries to combat terrorism.

Tajikistan is ready for the first stage of strengthening the border with Afghanistan

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is concerned about the situation in Afghanistan.

— The Allies express concern about the situation in Afghanistan and the growing threats in the provinces adjacent to the Central Asian region of collective Security of the CSTO. In this regard, the policy of expanding regional coordination in the counterterrorism and anti-drug spheres remains in demand. In this context, the implementation of the CSTO's Targeted Interstate Program to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border is of particular importance and relevance," Natalia Kharitonova, press secretary of the CSTO secretariat, told Izvestia.

She added that for the organization, the territory of Afghanistan remains a source of challenges related to terrorism, extremism, and drug crime.

Tajikistan plays an important role in ensuring security in this area, which is separated from Afghanistan by the longest border in Central Asia — 1.3 thousand km. The CSTO program to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border has been developed since 2013 and was adopted by the Collective Security Council in November 2024. It has three stages. At the first stage, Tajikistan, as the coordinator of the program, will assess the capabilities of the Allies in the production of weapons and technical means for border protection. Then the CSTO members will select the sources of financing and conclude the first contracts. Deliveries are already planned for 2026-2027.

The third stage (2027-2029) implies the practical provision of security along the entire section of the Tajik-Afghan border. So far, there is little information about what exactly the third stage is. Most of the tasks of strengthening the border will probably fall on the Russian side, Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. Tajikistan is home to the 201st Russian military Base, the largest Russian military facility abroad. At the same time, there is no question of introducing any additional contingents, the expert believes.

Recently, the CSTO discussed in detail the implementation of the first stage of the program. On April 11, the Secretary General of the organization, Imangali Tasmagambetov, met in Dushanbe with the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, and relevant officials, including the Minister of Defense of Tajikistan and the Secretary of the Security Council.

In general, all the heads of the CSTO member states attach great importance to the program in the context of countering regional challenges. Recent visits have demonstrated the Tajik side's willingness to implement the first and all subsequent stages, Natalia Kharitonova told Izvestia.

The risks of terrorism in Central Asia

The security situation on the Tajik-Afghan border remains difficult. Last year, according to the commander of the Tajik border troops, about 1.5 thousand militants were concentrated in the adjacent territory. International terrorist groups such as Jundallah, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and ISIL units are still operating in the border area from Afghanistan (all of these terrorist groups are banned in the Russian Federation). In addition, the change of power in Syria has probably worsened the instability.

— Some of them have joined forces with the Taliban (the organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities. — Ed.) during his stay underground, some operate on illegal terms. In any case, there is a risk of their invasion of Tajikistan. The situation has become much more complicated after the capture of Damascus by the armed opposition, as a number of militants from Central Asia have been released from Syrian prisons and at least several hundred of them have moved to the Afghan border, explains Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.

The invasion may also be accompanied by attacks by internal Islamist cells. For example, Tablighi Jamaat groups operate in Kyrgyzstan (recognized as a terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation), which were involved in the preparation of a coup in the republic last year, the expert noted.

Omar Nessar believes that the situation on the border is stable so far, but escalation cannot be ruled out. It is obvious that the Afghan authorities at least do not have enough funds and resources to fight terrorism. The Taliban is still under sanctions, and after the withdrawal of troops in August 2021, which provoked a coup in the country, the United States blocked local foreign exchange reserves. At the moment, they are estimated at about $9.4 billion. All this, of course, complicates the process of economic recovery and, as a result, prevents Kabul from effectively countering terrorist cells.

Last year, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for the return of Afghan gold and foreign exchange reserves to the Taliban. Tashkent, although it has suspended its participation in the CSTO, also has a very substantive interest in ensuring security on the border with Afghanistan, although it is much smaller than that of Tajikistan, at 144 km.

Earlier, the Russian side also stated the need to return the funds. In general, the level of relations between Moscow and new Kabul shows that at least the top of the Taliban is showing the will to fight terrorism and is trying to improve the situation, Nikita Mendkovich draws attention. Easing up on the Taliban may well contribute to this. So, in March, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation asked the Supreme Court to suspend the ban on the activities of the Taliban movement in Russia.

There are no open appeals or initiatives about the Taliban in Tajikistan yet, but local experts note that there has been little criticism of the movement on official resources in the last couple of years. It can be assumed that a scenario similar to the Russian one is being considered there.

Some other CSTO partners have already taken steps towards the Afghan government. In June 2024, Kazakhstan removed the movement from the list of terrorist organizations for economic reasons. In September, Bishkek followed Astana's example, citing the need to strengthen regional stability and maintain dialogue with Kabul. A move towards recognizing the Taliban as an incentive, including potential economic opportunities, may encourage Kabul to work more closely with neighboring countries to combat terrorism, Nessar concluded.