Price trap: energy crisis intensifies in Moldova and Romania

In Moldova, gas prices are expected to rise after the refusal to purchase natural gas from the Russian Federation, Ilan Shor, the leader of the Pobeda bloc, told Izvestia. The republic also lacks the electricity it buys from Romania. According to experts, it can rise in price by up to 30%. At the same time, Bucharest itself cannot cope with the production of capacities. Electricity prices are forecast to rise in Romania by July, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia. The current tariff situation increases citizens' discontent.

Price growth in Moldova and Romania

In Moldova, after the refusal to purchase Russian gas, prices for natural gas are expected to rise again.

— The fact that gas and electricity prices will rise even more for residents of the country is not a forecast, but a reality. Last summer [Prime Minister of Moldova] Dorin Rechan could negotiate with Russia and stock up on cheap gas. Instead, the PAS members (the Action and Solidarity party, PAS) dragged it out to the last, and then they simply introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector," Ilan Shor, the leader of the Pobeda bloc, tells Izvestia.

Moldova is facing an energy crisis after the termination of transit through Ukraine. In addition, on December 28, Gazprom announced that it was ceasing to supply fuel to the republic due to debts to the company in the amount of $709 million. Chisinau expresses its willingness to pay only $9 million, and refuses to recognize the rest.

Moldova is currently purchasing natural gas from European suppliers, and tariffs depend on their decisions. In December 2024, the price of gas in the republic increased by 27.6%. The new tariff was increased to 15.5 lei per 1 cubic meter (approximately $0.85 at the current exchange rate). Due to the refusal to negotiate with the Russian Federation, Moldova will continue to buy Russian energy resources from European suppliers with a mark-up of 100% for gas and 70% for electricity, Ilan Shor believes.

— Each next time, there will probably be a lower percentage increase. It is unclear what the tariff will be, whether they will raise it further, and how much if prices on the European market fall. But we shouldn't expect a clear decline yet," says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, an expert and lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, there is not enough electricity in the republic. Previously, Moldova received up to 80% from GRES in Transnistria. However, from January 1, 2025, the republic switched to supplies from Romania due to the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. From December 16 to February 13, Moldova had a state of emergency in the energy sector. In Transnistria, the state of emergency in the economy was extended until April 9 due to the unstable situation with gas supplies. Since January, about 40 enterprises of the PMR have suspended operations due to lack of gas supplies. Most of them continue to be in forced downtime, including such industrial giants as the metallurgical plant and cement plant in Rybnitsa, and the Tirotex textile factory.

Romania has been supplying significant amounts of electricity to Moldova on a commercial basis for several months. At the same time, in 2024, the country's own electricity production decreased by 9%, so Bucharest had to increase its imports from abroad, even for domestic consumption, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia.

— A significant increase in electricity tariffs for the population is expected by July 1 of this year. Obviously, a significant increase in prices cannot but affect the well—being of citizens," the embassy stressed.

Nevertheless, the Romanian Ministry of Energy informed Izvestia that Bucharest is ready to support Moldova in achieving energy stability.

Earlier in Moldova, electricity prices had already been raised several times, in total they increased by 65% and 75%, depending on the region. It is possible that the price increase next time will be 30%.

— Electricity tariffs were raised in Moldova by 30% in December and by 30% in January. It may well be that they will be promoted the same way. But prices are unlikely to rise right in the summer, and after that it is quite likely," energy expert Boris Martsinkevich tells Izvestia.

Moreover, water prices may rise in the republic, says Bogdan Tsyrdea, a Moldovan deputy from the parliamentary Bloc of Communists and Socialists.

— Our inflation rate continues to rise. In December, prices for gas and electricity tariffs increased, and now we expect an increase in tariffs for water, transport, food, and so on," he continued.

Protests in the republics

There have been repeated protests in Moldova due to the decline in the standard of living of the population. They were provoked by the increase in the cost of many goods. The local National Bank expects inflation to rise to 7.3% in 2025. In 2024, this figure was 7%. The energy crisis and the loss of access to the market of cheap energy resources only increase the discontent of citizens.

Farmers have been protesting in the republic for two years now. They suffered from the drought that lasted for several years, record inflation, and the loss of markets in Russia and the CIS countries. The agrarians asked for a moratorium on debt penalties and increased financial assistance to drought-affected enterprises. However, the authorities have not implemented any of the promised measures to help the country's main industry. As a result, on March 4, Moldovan farmers announced the resumption of their actions.

Western media previously reported that Romania could face a wave of protests in 2025 amid dissatisfaction with social reforms and changes in labor legislation. The country's Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolaku, had previously said that officials were not required to index wages in accordance with the inflation rate, which provoked sharp criticism from trade unions. In January, hundreds of police officers held rallies in several Romanian cities due to salary cuts. In February, annual inflation in Romania rose to 5.02% from 4.95% in the previous month, slightly exceeding market forecasts of 4.75%.

The situation in Romania is also heating up amid political instability. On March 9, it became known that the Central Election Commission of the country rejected the candidacy of the allegedly pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu in the presidential election. The first round took place on November 24, 2024. Georgescu was in the lead with 22.94% of the vote, but on November 28, the country's Constitutional Court demanded that the Central Election Commission recount the results. They were cancelled on December 6. Repeat elections will be held in Romania on May 4.

Rising prices may further destabilize the situation in the two countries closer to autumn, says HSE analyst Nicole Bodisteanu.

— Then there will be a need to harvest, cultivate the soil for the next season and transport the harvested crop for export, — she says.

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Moldova this fall.