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- Not forever greenbacks: record growth of settlements in national currencies strengthened the ruble
One of the reasons for the sharp strengthening of the ruble was a breakthrough in the transition to paying for imported goods in national currencies. According to Izvestia, by the end of 2024, the share of such transactions exceeded 80%, and half of all settlements are made in rubles. Without the use of dollars and euros, foreigners are not only ready to buy the Russian energy resources they need, but also to sell their products to us. As a result, the demand from importers in Russia for Western currencies is decreasing, and their exchange rate is falling - and this is already a long-term trend. How it reduces the dependence of our economy on "toxic" money and maintains the importance of the ruble in the global arena, and why foreign goods may eventually become cheaper - in the material of "Izvestia".
Why the dollar is below 90 rubles
The share of national currencies in the calculations of the Russian Federation for imports of goods and services has reached 82%, according to statistics of the Central Bank, which was studied by "Izvestia". At the same time, the ruble occupies a large volume of payments - in the IV quarter of 2024, it accounted for almost half of all settlements (more than 48%). The rest are monetary units of our partners, such as yuan or dirhams.
A year earlier, 70% of import transactions were conducted in national currencies. Moreover, the ruble accounted for only one third.
"Toxic" currencies (dollar, euro and money of other unfriendly countries) occupy a share of less than 20% of all payments for imports, as follows from the quarterly data of the Central Bank. In trade with Asia, it is only 10%, and in payment transactions with Europe, the figure fell below 40% for the first time.
In settlements for exports the situation is similar: the combined share of the ruble and national currencies exceeded 82% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, follows from the regulator's data.
Dedollarization ultimately affects the ruble exchange rate, said Alexander Shepelev, stock market expert at BKS Investment World. The less frequently the American currency is used, the less demand for it inside the country and the lower its value relative to Russian money. This factor provides fundamental support to the ruble.
In trading on February 20, the ruble rose to 88 per dollar in interbank trading for the first time since September 2024, consolidating at this level, according to Trading View data. The growth of the exchange rate was primarily due to the news of negotiations on the end of the Ukrainian conflict.
The ruble depends on the inflow of foreign currency in the Russian Federation, but the need for it is fully provided by export revenues, said analyst of FG Finam Alexander Potavin. Everything else, which previously required dollars and euros, now we are ready to sell for national currencies, which are not in short supply.
Dedollarization supports the national currency, but rather indirectly - its rate is more influenced by other factors, such as high rates of ruble deposits, said Hovhannes Hovhannisyan, director of the analytical department of "Tsifra Broker". According to Izvestia, they average about 21% in the largest banks.
Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes that abandoning the dollar in settlements will also help make the ruble exchange rate less volatile.
How the renunciation of dollars in settlements takes place
The growing role of the ruble and national currencies in foreign trade is a forced measure, because other options are either prohibited, or risky, or even more costly, explained analyst of FG Finam Alexander Potavin. In Russia it is presented as a policy of dedollarization, but it is a forced situation due to sanctions.
The reason for the rejection of the dollar is the disconnection of most Russian banks from the global system of bank payments SWIFT, because of which they had to look for new ways of settlements, specified in "Finam". In addition, due to sanctions and the break with the West, the circle of Russia's trade partners has narrowed, which led to a reorientation to the markets of Asia and Africa.
In general, dedollarization reduces the dependence of the Russian economy on the U.S. currency, concluded Vladimir Chernov. Because of this, the ruble exchange rate becomes less susceptible to external factors, and the demand for the Russian monetary unit in the global arena increases, which should support the value of the ruble.
At the same time, the reduction in the share of "toxic" currencies in import payments reduces the outflow of foreign money from the country - this factor also supports the ruble, added Vladimir Chernov.
Also, when switching to payment in rubles, importers reduce the cost of commissions due to their conversion into another currency, and generally avoid some problems with settlements, added Vladimir Chernov. This contributes to the cheapening of goods imported into Russia. All this should eventually curb the prices of imported products. This opinion is also agreed in "Tsifra Broker".
On the other hand, a strong ruble reduces export revenues, and therefore aggravates the state budget deficit, said economist Andrei Barkhota. In January 2025, it reached Br1.7 trillion. In addition, de-dollarization may increase the dependence of foreign trade on other currencies - in particular, the yuan.
In the long term, the transition to settlements in rubles and national currencies will strengthen economic ties with China, Saudi Arabia and African republics, added financial expert Ivan Kashirin. This does not guarantee the strengthening of the ruble, but such development of foreign relations will help support the Russian economy and, in general, our importance on the world stage.
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