Missile staging: the CDU allowed the Taurus to be sent to Ukraine

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) admits sending long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine after the German election on February 23, Izvestiya has reported. At the same time, they realize that this will be more of a symbolic step and the deliveries are not capable of affecting the course of hostilities. In addition, there are problems with the training of Ukrainian soldiers, the party interlocutor added. However, even if the CDU does win, it is likely that they will have to build a coalition government, and some partners may oppose such a move against the backdrop of the U.S.-Russian talks that have begun.

Will Berlin provide Kiev with long-range missiles?

The German authorities have been criticized by hawks both inside and outside Germany over the past few years for refusing to supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles. Chancellor Olaf Scholz was reluctant to take such a step because of the risk of escalation, as these missiles are capable of hitting targets within a radius of 500 kilometers, which would theoretically give the Ukrainian army the ability to strike deep into Russian territory with them.

However, the situation could change after the Bundestag elections, which are scheduled for February 23. An interlocutor from the CDU, which leads in opinion polls, admitted the supply of long-range weapons to Kiev. The CDU will traditionally run in the elections in a bloc with the Christian Social Union (CSU).

According to him, the CDU is studying the issue of sending Taurus to Ukraine after a possible election victory. At the same time, the party recognizes that this step is already unlikely to change the situation on the battlefield.

- It should have been done earlier. Now it will serve more as a symbol of support," a party source told Izvestia. - In addition, there may be problems with training Ukrainian servicemen to use these systems.

The Alternative for Germany (AdG), which advocates normalization of relations with Russia, however, believes that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will not give the go-ahead for the deliveries.

- "I don't see any preconditions for the Taurus missiles to be handed over [to Ukraine]," AdG member of the Bundestag defense committee Herold Otten told Izvestia. - By the time Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor - which will probably be in May - the issue will likely be resolved. I firmly believe that at least by then there will be a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine.

Friedrich Merz has previously advocated Taurus deliveries to the war zone, but Berlin should only take such a step, he said, after agreement in the European Union. At the same time, there is no general consensus in the EU on supplying Kiev with arms: at least two countries - Slovakia (after Robert Fitzo comes to power in 2023) and Hungary - are against it. However, the position of Bratislava and Budapest has not prevented the same Germany, France or other unification countries from providing the AFU with offensive weapons, including heavy tanks and fighter jets, since the beginning of the NWO. Therefore, what "harmonization" may mean in practice is not entirely clear.

"Izvestia" sent an inquiry to the CDU asking it to clarify the party's position on sending long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Why Germany may refuse to send Taurus

The main deterrent may rather be the new realities in the international arena. The dialog that has begun between the Russian Federation and the United States, Washington's criticism of Brussels and Kiev are making serious adjustments to the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call with White House host Donald Trump on February 12. The focus was on the crisis in Ukraine and the normalization of bilateral relations. A few days later, Riyadh hosted the first full-fledged talks between the Russian and US delegations in three years, which lasted more than four hours. Now everyone is waiting for the meeting of the leaders of the two countries.

In addition, for the first time since the beginning of the Security Council, the United States did not co-sponsor the anti-Russian draft resolution of the UN General Assembly on Ukraine. The draft document, which was prepared by February 24, requires Russia to "immediately, fully and unconditionally withdraw all its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine." And according to the Financial Times, citing Western officials, the United States opposes the use of the phrase "aggressor" against Russia in the new G7 communiqué.

The tone of the talks indicates that Russia and the United States are ready to start a new, more constructive phase of bilateral relations. Commenting on the meeting in Saudi Arabia, Vladimir Putin said that he highly appreciated its results. And although the moment when our countries could be called partners is still far away, the initiative of the Trump administration is evidence of fundamental changes in Washington, which apparently no longer bets on confrontation with Russia and the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict.

Meanwhile, the Trump team can't seem to find common ground with European allies. Vice President J.D. Vance at the recently concluded Munich Security Conference sharply criticized the policy of the European Union and individual European countries. According to him, the United States is not concerned about the threat to the EU from Russia or China, but about Europe's retreat from some of its most important values. Trump had an uneasy relationship with the Ukrainian government even before he took office for the second time. Now his dialog with Vladimir Zelensky is only escalating. On February 19, Trump said that Zelensky had "persuaded" the US to spend $350 billion on a conflict that could not be won and should not have started.

Under these circumstances, EU countries will have to make a choice: take responsibility for financial support for Kiev and military aid to it, or accept the fact that the conflict, largely provoked by the West, needs to be brought to an end. Without the U.S., which has been Ukraine's main donor since 2022, the EU's options will be limited. Germany and France (even with the UK, which is not part of the alliance) are incapable of maintaining the Ukrainian army's combat capability in the long term.

But there is also an internal factor. The CDU/CSU bloc is steadily leading in the election race. According to most polls, about 30% of voters may vote for it. It is followed by the AdG with a rating of about 20%. The ruling SPD can count on about 15% of votes, and the Greens - on 13%. The Left is supported by about 6-7% of Germans. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), formerly part of the ruling coalition, risks failing to pass the five-percent threshold - its support ranges from 4-5%. It is possible that the new party headed by Sarah Wagenknecht may also get into the Bundestag. Her rating averages around 5%.

Artem Sokolov, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believes that the results of the early elections to the Bundestag will generally correspond to the opinion polls.

- The Christian Democrats will win the elections, and they will have to work proactively to form a governing coalition. Their preferred option would be to form a "grand coalition" consisting of the CDU/CSU bloc and the SPD, but for this to happen, the parties must win enough votes," he told Izvestia.

If the CDU/CSU and SPD do not have enough votes to reach an absolute majority, they will be joined by the Greens or the FDP, and Friedrich Merz will be chancellor, Fedor Basov, a senior researcher at IMEMO RAN, explained to Izvestia. At the same time, the AdG will most likely not be able to enter the government - despite the support of voters, this party is still considered an unruly force in German politics.

According to him, no major changes in foreign policy should be expected. The FRG will gradually increase defense production and develop the Bundeswehr, as well as continue to support Ukraine and European unity. Nevertheless, coalition partners, the same SPD of Olaf Scholz, may end up blocking the shipment of long-range missiles to Kiev. A decision on the Taurus delivery is still not ruled out, but it will only be possible if it becomes a consolidated position within the transatlantic community, Artem Sokolov said.