Mountainous: what to expect from the presidential election in Abkhazia

Early presidential elections will be held in Abkhazia on February 15. Five candidates will compete for the highest office. According to the VTsIOM poll, the main leaders of the race are Badra Gunba and Adgur Ardzinba. The CEC will open 152 polling stations in the country and two in the Russian Federation: in Moscow and Cherkessk, as well as one in the Turkish city of Sakarya. After the elections, Abkhazia is not expected to change its foreign policy vector - Russia remains a key partner for the country, which helps it to cope, in particular, with the energy crisis. In addition, investments from the Russian Federation have a positive impact on modernization of infrastructure necessary for the development of tourism, and it is considered an important source for the republic's budget.

Elections in Abkhazia - who are among the candidates

Among the candidates for president of Abkhazia are: Adgur Ardzinba - former Minister of Economy, Robert Arshba - ex-chairman of the Chamber of Control, Oleg Bartsits - former trade representative of the country in the Russian Federation, political figure Badra Gunba, who was acting president after the resignation of Aslan Bzhania, now he is on vacation due to participation in the election campaign, as well as chairman of the board of the Black Sea Development Bank Adgur Hurkhumal.

The early elections will take place several months after the resignation of former president Aslan Bzhania. He resigned last November amid the protests that began in the republic. Prime Minister Alexander Ankvab left together with him. Unrest in Abkhazia began on the night of November 12 and lasted about a week. This is the third time in the last 10 years when the president of Abkhazia leaves his post early because of opposition protests.

According to a VTsIOM poll, a third of Abkhazian voters on February 15th will support Badra Gunba, Adgur Ardzinba - 15%, Robert Arshba - 11.2%, Oleg Bartsits - 9.6% and Adgur Hurkhumal - 4.4%.

Badra Gunba served as vice president under the previous head of the republic, Aslan Bzhania. A Russian delegation led by First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko met with Gunba in late January and early February during his recent visit to the republic. In addition, Gunba met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on February 6. Adgur Ardzinba was one of the leaders of the opposition during the last political crisis in November 2024.

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Moscow offers the republic the realization of promising projects

The winner of the election will be the candidate who gets 50% and one vote of the total number of those who filled in the ballots. If none of the candidates received such support, the CEC organizes a run-off vote for the two contestants with the highest results. The second round is to be held no later than two weeks later. The expected turnout is 69%.

On election day, 152 polling stations will open in 35 districts of the republic. By the way, ballots will be delivered by helicopter to the high-mountain village of Pskhu, which can be reached only by air in winter. Three polling stations will also work abroad: two - in Russia, in Moscow and Cherkessk, and one - in Turkish Sakarya. Chairman of the Central Election Commission of Abkhazia Dmitry Marshan reported that a total of 135 thousand voters will be able to participate in the voting.

Abkhazia expects about 80 international observers at the upcoming presidential elections. In particular, representatives of the Central Election Commission of Russia, South Ossetia and Transnistria will follow the voting.

How relations between Russia and Abkhazia are developing

It is important to note that the protests that forced the authorities to organize early elections were not anti-Russian in nature. According to the latest VTsIOM data, 91% of Abkhazians have a positive attitude towards the Russian Federation.

Moscow is currently helping Abkhazia to cope with energy shortages. From November to April the republic annually lacks electricity due to outdated networks and lack of its own capacity. The key source is the Inguri hydroelectric power station located on the republic's border with Georgia. In December, due to critical levels and insufficient water inflow, the Inguri HPP, for example, reduced the daytime electricity supply time to 2 hours and 48 minutes.

During the already mentioned visit of the Russian delegation to Abkhazia, the parties discussed bilateral projects. Among them - a number of humanitarian initiatives, in particular the allocation of additional 200 million rubles for the completion of a children's hospital in Sukhum. The focus of bilateral relations is on increasing the tourist flow to the republic. Abkhazia is one of the most popular foreign destinations in Russia. In 2024 it will be visited by about 1.5 million Russian tourists, in 2023 - 1.4 million. Moscow allocated 10 billion rubles to repair the Adler checkpoint on the border of Russia and Abkhazia - as a result, the capacity of the border crossing point will increase 9.5 times for transport and almost three times for those who cross the border on foot.

Positive impact on the development of tourism will be made by commissioning of Sukhumi airport, which on February 7 received the first test flight from Moscow for the last more than 30 years. The flight was made by the airline "YuVT Aero" from Vnukovo. In May it is expected to open a full-fledged regular service between our countries. Located 18 km from the capital of Abkhazia, the airport has not functioned since the end of the Georgian-Abkhazian war by decision of the International Civil Aviation Organization.

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In addition, the Russian Federation allocated 343 million rubles to Abkhazia to pay salaries to doctors, teachers and law enforcement officers. Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAN, believes that after the vote Moscow will continue to remain a key partner for Sukhum.

- In this case, Russia will remain both the main financial donor of Abkhazia and the main guarantor of security, because Russia is the country that officially supports the republic and was the icebreaker of its recognition. "In the near future nothing will change in relations between Russia and Abkhazia regardless of who will be the first person in the republic," he tells Izvestia.

Russian-Abkhazian relations have been repeatedly tested for strength, and the Abkhazian authorities are interested in preserving comprehensive cooperation with Moscow, the expert summarized. For Abkhazia, cooperation with Russia is important from the point of view of improving economic indicators: last year the republic's GDP grew by 8%.

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed hope that the voting in the republic will be held without excesses. "In the context of the upcoming February 15 early presidential elections in Abkhazia, we expect that <...> the results of the will of the voters will contribute to strengthening domestic political stability, improving the well-being of the population and further socio-economic growth of the republic with reliance on the alliance with Russia," said Deputy Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Mikhail Galuzin.