Arms rift: Germany's willingness to help Ukraine declines
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The readiness to help Ukraine "as long as necessary" is causing less and less enthusiasm among taxpayers in Germany. The Russian embassy in Berlin told Izvestiya. Similar sentiments are also confirmed by the Bundestag Defense Committee. According to opinion polls, more and more Germans oppose the continuation of military supplies to Kiev or consider their volumes too high. Disagreements over additional support for Ukraine have also emerged among the ruling elites. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to block the allocation of an additional €3 billion military aid package to Kiev, opposed by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock. The prospects for further support of Ukraine by the FRG are discussed in the Izvestia article.
German position on military supplies to Ukraine
On the eve of early elections to the Bundestag, which will be held on February 23, the support of parties advocating a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Ukraine is growing in Germany. This mainly concerns the "Alternative for Germany" (AdG), for which about 20% of Germans are ready to vote. Gerold Otten (AdG), a member of the Bundestag's defense committee, notes that the longer the Ukrainian conflict lasts, the more Germany will oppose military supplies to Kiev.
- "Many people see how much money is spent on this, but nothing changes at all," he told Izvestia. - All these promises that Russia would lose and Ukraine would win have not come true. That's why many people are disappointed.
In addition to the AdG, the newly formed Sarah Wagenknecht Union, among others, has an anti-war stance. Although the German government recognizes that the armed conflict has been going on for too long, it intends to continue supporting Kiev. Russia has repeatedly pointed out that new supplies to Ukraine only prolong the crisis and do not change the situation on the battlefield.
- The authorities of the Federal Republic of Germany declare their readiness to help Ukraine "as long as necessary". However, such "generosity" arouses less and less enthusiasm among local taxpayers, who believe that in the conditions of socio-economic crisis this money could have found a more reasonable use," the Russian Embassy in Berlin told Izvestia.
Thus, according to the polls conducted by the Ipsos research company, over the past year, the number of those who oppose the continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine has increased significantly. If in February 2024 the share of people holding this opinion was about 43%, now it is 48% (in September this figure reached even 51%). A similar trend is observed in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll: about 39% believe that the FRG's military support for Ukraine has gone too far. It is noteworthy that in the spring of 2023 this opinion was held by far fewer people - only 31%.
Politicians recognize that virtually no initiative aimed at escalating the Ukrainian conflict is popular in German society. This is proved by the recent conversation between vice-chairman of the CDU/CSU bloc Johan Wadeful and Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus, who called him on behalf of the head of Vladimir Zelensky's office, Andrei Yermak. Wadeful admitted that Germany could not send a military contingent to Ukraine because of the complexity of legal procedures and the lack of voter support for such a move.
Since the beginning of the SWO, the "traffic light coalition" led by Olaf Scholz has virtually sided unconditionally with Kiev. Berlin regularly sends additional arms and ammunition to Ukraine. According to official data, since February 2022, Germany has allocated about €28 billion for military aid to Kiev. This amount includes the cost of actually transferred weapons, military equipment, equipment for personnel, as well as promised assistance for the coming years.
In particular, in 2024, €7.1 billion went to the already provided military assistance, €6 billion were allocated for future deliveries. In 2023 and 2022 Germany transferred to Ukraine military aid in the amounts of €5 billion and €1.6 billion respectively. In addition, €2.9bn of deferred commitments for 2025-2028 are earmarked for Kiev. The cost of weapons supplied from the Bundeswehr warehouses amounted to €5.2 billion, and Germany spent €280 million on training Ukrainian soldiers.
The nomenclature of German military aid includes more than 200 items, including missile and air defense systems, heavy tanks, BMPs, MLRS, surface-to-air missile systems, self-propelled artillery and anti-aircraft systems, and drones. In early January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius promised, among other things, to hand over a new batch of guided missiles for IRIS-T air defense systems at a Ramstein meeting.
Disagreements within the ruling elite in the FRG
By the way, Boris Pistorius, a fellow partner of Olaf Scholz (both members of the SPD), is considered one of the ardent supporters of maintaining and strengthening military aid to Ukraine. During his recent visit to Kiev, the politician said that it was "important for him to show" that Germany continues its support.
At the same time, the SPD is currently split on the issue of increasing military aid to Kiev. For three weeks now, Olaf Scholz's cabinet has been blocking the allocation of an additional €3 billion to Ukraine. The package includes, among other things, additional IRIS-T air defense batteries and Patriot missiles. The Chancellor has made it clear that he does not expect a decision on the allocation of new support to Kiev before the Bundestag elections. He confirmed that he would approve another arms supply only if the debt brake (a rule that prohibits spending more money from the budget than it receives) is loosened. In addition, the Chancellor's office estimates that Ukraine has no urgent need for additional military aid in the coming weeks. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, on the contrary, is sure that the three-billion-dollar package is urgently needed.
In addition, the co-chair of the Greens, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, is also in favor of allocating a new tranche to Ukraine. She believes that additional arms deliveries should be financed before the Bundestag elections at the expense of unplanned expenditures in the budget. This view is supported by the opposition bloc CDU/CSU, as well as the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which used to be part of the ruling coalition.
It is possible that the reason for Olaf Scholz's position is to hunt for the votes of disappointed Germans at the expense of Ukraine. The chancellor is probably trying to take points away from those who oppose further arms deliveries to Kiev, such as the AdG or Sarah Wagenknecht's Union.
It is worth noting that although Germany under Scholz has become Ukraine's second largest military donor after the United States, the chancellor has sometimes tried to avoid a sharp escalation of the conflict. For example, the politician is still blocking the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev. In addition, last November he called Vladimir Putin for the first time in a long time to discuss the Ukrainian problem.
- "We welcome all proposals aimed at achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine," the German embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
At the same time, the SPD, led by Scholz, is still trailing its main rival, the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc, by a wide margin. According to a January 27 INSA poll, he now has the support of 30% of voters, while the SPD has only 15%. "The Greens are projected at around 12%, while the FDP and the Left risk failing to make it into the Bundestag at the five-percent barrier. The second political force in parliament could be the AdG with 22%. The newly formed "Sarah Wagenknecht Union" (SSV), according to INSA, is supported by about 6% of voters.
Finally, it is possible that the amount of German military aid to Ukraine will depend on the willingness of the US to further support Kiev in the same amount. The new President Donald Trump openly states that he intends to get the peace talks started. Against this background, it is not excluded that Washington's support may decrease. Especially Donald Trump after returning to the White House suspended aid programs to other countries for 90 days. By the way, according to a recent poll conducted for the ZDF TV channel, about 66% of German residents believe that with the arrival of Trump, the military support of the states for Ukraine will decrease.