A fly-by mission: Japanese missiles via the U.S. could end up in Ukraine
Japanese missiles for Patriot air defense systems, which Tokyo will transfer to Washington, may eventually reach Ukraine. This was reported to Izvestiya by the Russian embassy in Japan. There specified: Moscow will consider this as a hostile act. The new Prime Minister of the Asian country Shigeru Ishiba adheres to the former pro-American course, although after the loss of the majority in Parliament his party will be difficult to lobby for new initiatives. In addition, the opposition opposes radical changes in arms exports. How Russia can respond in case of the appearance of Japanese missiles in the conflict zone and whether Tokyo is ready for such escalation - in the material of "Izvestia".
Can Japanese missiles be handed over to Kiev?
The situation in Ukraine has sharply escalated after the United States, Britain and France authorized Kiev to launch strikes with their long-range weapons on Russian territory. Paris, however, specified that only "in self-defense," but this does not change the essence. It would be quite logical to expect escalation on the part of other Western countries or their allies. However, so far the chain reaction of supplies and authorized strikes from other states has not been set in motion. It is likely that this was partly influenced by the negative reaction of a number of NATO partners. For example, the leaders of Hungary, Slovakia and Turkey criticized. Germany has not yet decided to transfer its long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev. However, the risk of escalation on the part of the states supporting Ukraine, especially in terms of arms supplies, certainly remains.
In particular, Japan has recently significantly changed its pacifist position. The country has a de jure ban on the supply of lethal weapons to the war zone. However, since this year it can sell weapons and components produced under their licenses to countries. Thus, in July 2024, the Defense Ministry approved the shipment of missiles for the U.S. Patriot PAC-3 missile defense systems to the United States - Washington needed to replenish its dwindling stockpile due to multibillion-dollar deliveries to Ukraine. One of the conditions was a ban on the transfer of these weapons to Kiev without Tokyo's authorization. At the same time, the Russian Embassy in Japan admits the possibility that the missiles may still enter the conflict zone.
"Here they do not hide that the main purpose of this agreement is to replenish the American arsenals, which have shrunk due to the transfer of weapons to the Kiev regime. It is possible that these ammunition will eventually reach Ukraine," the diplomatic mission told Izvestiya. - For our part, we have repeatedly warned the official Japanese authorities that we consider any arms deliveries to Ukraine - no matter where they come from - as an openly hostile act. Such steps will have an extremely negative impact on bilateral relations".
Russian Ambassador to Tokyo Nikolay Nozdrev warned earlier that Moscow would react promptly and clearly if Japanese missiles hit Ukraine. In particular, sanctions measures cannot be ruled out.
Gas tanker and tugboats for servicing and mooring gas carriers of the Sakhalin-2 LNG plant in Aniva Bay
- Japan is trying to maintain its participation in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 energy projects. They believe that this is important to ensure diversification of energy supplies. In principle, if these investments become a tool of pressure, it will be quite painful and will be perceived in Japan itself as a significant loss," Vladimir Nelidov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.
In January of this year, it was reported that Japan was going to replenish the reserves of another NATO member. As The Wall Street Journal wrote, the country on the basis of a license was to produce shells to be sent to the UK. However, nothing is known about the transfer process so far.
The U.S. MRC Typhon medium-range mobile missile system planned for deployment in the Pacific Rim countries
Given the allied relations between Washington and Tokyo, we can expect a more dangerous development for Russia. The US has planned to deploy medium-range missiles on the territory of Japan. However, Tokyo has not given a positive answer and, as Izvestia found out earlier, is not going to change its position yet. The deployment of such missiles will undoubtedly increase tension in the Asia-Pacific region, in which the interests of a huge number of countries are involved. A week ago, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the point of no return with the United States on missiles in Asia has not yet been passed, and called on Washington and its allies to reconsider their approaches.
How Tokyo's policy will change under Trump
It is worth noting that the contract to supply the US with licensed missiles was signed under former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Under his government, Tokyo took a rapid course of rapprochement with Washington, as well as with Seoul in the context of military cooperation. At the end of September, Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the new prime minister, but after the early parliamentary elections, which he himself appointed to gain the trust of the people, the seat under him shook. Ishiba's initiative played a cruel joke on him - in Japan, the ruling bloc led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority for the first time since 2009.
- Although Ishiba has traditionally been characterized as a hawk, Japan's options for activism in this direction are now very limited. "Ishiba is in an extremely difficult political situation, as the LDP was seriously weakened in the past elections to the lower house of parliament in order to push any decisions through parliament," Vladimir Nelidov told Izvestia.
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a speech at Parliament in Tokyo, Japan
By the way, this, in fact, may be a guarantee that Tokyo will not escalate its attitude toward Moscow. According to the expert, a significant part of the opposition is very cautious about the prospects of lifting all restrictions on arms exports and changing the country's military policy in general. If the fact of the appearance of weapons produced in Japan without Tokyo's consent is proven in Ukraine, Ishiba will find itself in an extremely unpleasant position, in which the Asian country was put by its strategic partner the United States to the delight of the LDP's political opponents, Oleg Kazakov, a senior researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies of IKSA RAS, emphasized to Izvestia.
There is another reason why the Japanese are unlikely to escalate the situation. A curious fact: trade turnover between Russia and Japan is growing despite the risk of secondary sanctions due to the United States. At the end of October, trade reached 107.7 billion yen ($696.5 million), up 6.75% year-on-year.
- Apparently, Japan hopes to expand economic ties with Russia, or at least that things will not go further than the negativity that already exists in our relations," Nelidov said.
Given the relative inertness of Japan's foreign policy, at least until Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, it is unlikely to expect dramatic changes. Although Tokyo will not start making radical decisions when he arrives in the White House. There are different scenarios for the development of the situation in the world under US pressure, but modern Japan will adhere exclusively to its national interests, Kazakov believes.
Mitsubishi F-2 fighters at an airbase in Japan
For now, the transfer of the latest fighter jets looks very distant but generally possible in terms of further militarization of Japan. At least the easing of export restrictions "on paper" allows this. We are talking about the new generation stealth fighter being developed with Italy and Great Britain. It should replace the "aging" American F-2 and the European Eurofighter Typhoon, used in the British and Italian Armed Forces. It is planned to put the novelty in service by 2035. By the way, recently at the G20 summit, Prime Ministers Shigeru Ishiba, George Meloni and Keir Starmer discussed the possible expansion of participation in the project. According to Japanese media, Saudi Arabia is showing interest. The inclusion of new partners will possibly accelerate production, and thus the potential transfer of the latest fighter jets to third countries.
"We believe that trilateral cooperation between Japan, the UK and Italy under the GCAP program will become the basis for a wide range of cooperation between the countries for decades to come, and will also make a significant contribution to ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and Europe in an increasingly complex security environment," the Japanese Embassy in Russia told Izvestia.
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