The way up: cars have doubled in price in five years
Over the past five years, the average price of a new car in Russia has doubled. Experts believe that it is not worth expecting lower prices for cars. At the same time, their price increase will be uneven, experts and market participants believe. "Izvestia" found out which cars and how much more expensive they can become by the end of the year.
At a double rate
As of the end of August, the weighted average price of a new car in Russia was 3.47 million rubles. This was announced by Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the analytical agency "Autostat". He noted that over the past five years, the cost of a car in our country has almost doubled. So, in 2020, the average weighted average price of a new car was 1.68 million rubles, and in 2021 it increased by 18% to 1.99 million rubles.
The most significant price increases over the past five years were recorded in 2022 (2.38 million rubles, +20%) and 2023 (2.96 million rubles, +24%). In 2024, cars became more expensive by 6% (3.12 million rubles), and in 2025 they added another 5.4% (3.29 million rubles) in price, the head of "Autostat" noted. The highest weighted average price of a new car (3.54 million rubles) was recorded in November last year, he said. At the beginning of the year, the situation stabilized, and by the beginning of summer, car prices had even dropped slightly, the expert said.
— It is now the third month in a row that we have seen growth. The current level has not reached its peak yet. The depreciation of the ruble and the September price adjustments by many brands will lead to a faster increase in the weighted average price this fall," says Sergey Tselikov.
According to his forecast, by winter, the weighted average price of a new car will rise to 3.7–3.8 million rubles, and year–on-year it will amount to 3.55-3.65 million rubles. Thus, compared to last year, it will increase by 8-11%, the head of "Autostat" believes.
Imports at risk
According to Sergey Tselikov, the upcoming increase in car prices will be uneven. First of all, models supplied through alternative channels, which currently account for 15% of the market, are at risk. The general director of "Autostat" predicts that by the end of the year such cars can add up to 20% in price.
The prices of officially imported Chinese cars may rise by about 10-15%, the expert believes. The share of such machines in the market is now about 20%. According to Sergey Tselikov, prices for Russian-built cars, whose market share exceeds 60%, may rise the least (at the level of 4-8%). At the same time, we are talking not only about traditional domestic brands like Lada or "UAZ", but also about new Russian brands such as Tenet, Jeland, Evolute, etc.
The end of September may be a good enough time to purchase a new car, the head of "Autostat" believes. According to him, manufacturers and dealers have just begun to adjust their price lists, and the ruble's depreciation has not yet been recouped. In addition, some sellers engaged in parallel imports still have prepaid cars in China.
— But now you will have to order a car "for yourself" from abroad according to the new course. And this is 15-20% more expensive than in the summer," said Sergey Tselikov.
Exchange rate difference
The main factor contributing to the rise in car prices is the depreciation of the ruble, experts interviewed by "Izvestia" believe. According to Nikita Shelikov, founder of LikeAvto, car prices directly depend on the ruble exchange rate. Therefore, in the event of a depreciation of the ruble, they will increase, as the cost of buying cars for dealers and importers, as well as logistics costs, will increase.
Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate are the main driver driving up prices, agrees Ivan Trandin, the owner of the "KM/H" group of companies.
— From May to August, the dollar rose in price by almost 10 rubles, and with a car price of 2.5 million, this adds about 350 thousand rubles to the price of the car. And for premium models costing 10 million rubles, the difference due to the exchange rate swing already reaches 1.4 million rubles," he explained.
Imported cars are more dependent on the ruble exchange rate, so they may rise in price more than localized models, according to auto expert Igor Morzharatto. Companies that specialize in custom car supplies are the most sensitive to this factor, Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of "Za Rulem" magazine, notes.
"Alternative imports" react the fastest to a change in the exchange rate, "Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New Car Sales Department at Rolf Group, told "Izvestia". Each new batch is recalculated at the current exchange rate, and suppliers have virtually no ability to hedge currency risk. This is especially noticeable in the premium segment, he noted.
The models supplied by official importers are less dependent on exchange rate fluctuations, the expert believes. Here, the impact of the yuan exchange rate is smoothed out by previously concluded contracts, inventories and producer support programs, he explained.
— Russian-built cars, including new local brands, are the least sensitive to short-term currency fluctuations. However, their cost cannot be considered completely ruble-denominated, as dependence on imported components and equipment remains. Therefore, prices in this segment can also be adjusted, but usually with a time lag and less sharply," Nikolai Ivanov told "Izvestia".
Look for discounts
In addition to the ruble exchange rate, an important factor that has a significant impact on the weighted average price of a car is the amount of discounts provided by the seller, experts say. A decrease in their number and volume also leads to an actual increase in the cost of the car for the consumer, they emphasize.
— There is no large-scale overstocking of warehouses, which previously forced sellers to give large discounts, now: distributors do not ship cars in batches for future use, as they did a year or two ago, so the buyer's bargaining space is getting smaller, — said Ivan Trandin.
For the end user, a rise in price will not always look like a price increase in the price list, Nikolai Ivanov emphasizes. The official cost of the car may remain the same, but by reducing the benefits of trade-in, loan subsidies or other bonuses, the final terms of the deal will become less attractive, he explained.
— Now car stocks are balanced, so market participants no longer need to maintain sales due to the previous volume of discounts. Some importers have already reduced discounts and special programs, others may do so in the coming months," said Rolf Group" Director of New Car Sales.
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