Samurai of the Depths: Militarization of Japan reaches a new level
Japan, whose constitution has prohibited the country from having an army as an instrument of war for 80 years, is launching a program to create weapons that, by definition, cannot be defensive. We are talking about hypersonic missiles for submarines and long—range attack drones, a system designed to provide Tokyo with a "retaliatory strike potential" on enemy territory. While land-based Type 25s could still be formally tied to island defense, underwater hypersound and kamikaze drones blur the boundaries between defense and attack. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
A new level
The Japanese Ministry of Defense is going to start developing hypersonic submarine-launched missiles next year, which are more difficult to intercept, and long-range attack drones, the Kyodo news agency reports.
According to the publication, these positions have already been included in the draft budget of the Ministry of Defense for 2027. It is also noted that special attention will be paid to technologies and weapons that are associated with the realization of the "retaliatory strike potential." In particular, we are talking about equipping unmanned underwater vehicles with the function of launching long-range missiles.
In addition, the Ministry plans to purchase interceptor drones and ship-based attack drones for air defense. And, on top of everything else, the authorities are going to develop an artificial intelligence-based decision support system for the joint operational command.
For the next fiscal year, the country's Defense Ministry, as previously reported by local media, plans to request a record budget of $56.3 billion. In total, defense spending is likely to exceed $67.08 billion, which is 1.5% of the country's GDP.
From pacifism to militarization
For many years after the end of World War II, Japan was considered a pacifist country, fully relying on the United States for national defense. This is enshrined in two documents — the ninth article of the Constitution and the 1960 Treaty on Mutual Cooperation and Security Guarantees concluded with the United States.
The Japanese armed forces used to focus on defense rather than attacking targets abroad. However, over time, the situation began to change: local authorities began to actively increase defense spending, setting new records from year to year.
At the end of 2022, Japan approved a new national security strategy, which, in particular, indicated Tokyo's right to launch counterstrikes against targets on the territory of a potential enemy. At the same time, the document emphasized that it was unacceptable to launch preventive strikes.
It was also proposed to increase military spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, following the model of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who came to power, promised to reach this target ahead of schedule. After being elected head of government, she ordered a review of key defense documents, including the national security strategy, citing "the difficult security situation in the region around Japan and the world as a whole."
Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi
At the same time, the country began to develop and purchase new categories of military equipment and lift long-standing restrictions on the use of its armed forces. In particular, Japan is developing mass production and deployment of long-range missiles of its own design at an unprecedented pace. The key element here is the Type 25 family. In March of this year, a coastal version of this type of missile was already deployed at the Kengun garrison in Kumamoto Prefecture. It is estimated that this projectile, which is an upgraded Type 12, has a range of about 1,000 km and, importantly, has a clear potential to strike ground targets on enemy territory. And this goes far beyond the tasks of "island protection".
Redefining the Nuclear Taboo
In addition, Tokyo plans to ease restrictions in the nuclear field. In 1971, the Japanese authorities adopted three non-nuclear principles: not to create, acquire, or allow nuclear weapons to be deployed on their territory. However, now the country's defense minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, has called for a review of this taboo.
— Before that, US nuclear weapons were deployed in Okinawa. Nuclear principles were generally respected, but American ships with tactical nuclear weapons entered Japanese ports from time to time, but they tried not to focus on this," said Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.
Japan Self-Defense Forces submarine JS Soryu (SS-501)
According to him, discussions on easing restrictions in the nuclear sphere have been going on in Japan for several years. This is due to Washington's plans to deploy new SLCM-N nuclear cruise missiles on multi-purpose submarines, which are being created to "strengthen the expanded deterrence" of China.
"Obviously, I can review the third nuclear principle in the coming years, and the next stage will be the deployment of aviation nuclear weapons at American bases in Japan," the expert admitted.
Russia is concerned
Russia is concerned about the militarization of its maritime neighbor. Especially after Tokyo, in its latest military doctrinal documents, listed the Russian Federation among the sources of major threats. As Russian President Vladimir Putin noted, Moscow and Tokyo had constructive relations when the Japanese government was headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who "did a lot to bring the two countries closer." However, Tokyo's position is radically different now, the Russian leader stressed.
He added that he would like to understand the point of view of Japan, which imposed unmotivated sanctions against Russia, for the first time calling the neighboring state the main source of threats, although Moscow has never posed a threat to Tokyo.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also called former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe an absolutely correct politician who understood that national interests could not be ensured without cooperation with the Russian Federation. However, now, as the diplomat noted, the Japanese authorities have chosen the militarization of the country as a way to ensure their interests together with the United States.
"There was information recently that a Japanese delegation of businessmen had arrived. They said bluntly that they had a firm instruction from the country's leadership not to discuss any projects with Russia," the minister stressed.
Potential conflict zone
The militarization of the country causes serious concern among the Japanese themselves. During recent protests in Tokyo and other cities, citizens openly expressed concern about the "return to the path of militarism" and dissatisfaction with the infringement of social programs. However, despite the protests of the population and the alertness of the international community, the Japanese establishment is not slowing down steps in the field of constitutional revision and military buildup.
Japanese Hatsuyuki-class destroyer JDS Asayuki (DD-132)
Japan not only produces and buys advanced weapons in large quantities, but also changes its attitude towards the army at the doctrinal level, Alexander Ermakov emphasized.
— The Pacific Ocean is becoming the same potential conflict zone for the Russian Federation as the Baltic or the Black Sea. Russia should not lose sight of these processes," the analyst expressed his conviction.
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