All-in game: Trump thinks about expanding military operation in Iran
Control of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the main prize in the Iranian campaign of the United States. According to The Wall Street Journal, after a meeting with his advisers, US President Donald Trump is increasingly inclined to expand bombing and even send ground troops to capture the islands of Kharq, Abu Musa, Bolshoy and Maly Tomb. Washington believes that these territories are the key to the oil artery of the world, through which a fifth of global exports of black gold pass. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Pick up the keys to the Gulf of Hormuz
After a meeting with his advisers, US President Donald Trump is increasingly inclined to expand military action against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a source. The publication notes that the administration is considering increasing the bombing of Iranian territory and attacks on the country's energy facilities. Sending ground troops to capture islands in the Strait of Hormuz is also being considered as another option.
In particular, military advisers propose to occupy the main oil terminal — Kharq Island, as well as the islands of Abu Musa, Bolshoy and Maly Tunb. The United States is interested in them for two reasons: because of their control over global oil supplies as a lever of pressure on Iran, and also because of their strategic position at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
Up to 90% of all Iranian oil exports pass through Kharq, making it a critically important source of income for the country, as it provides up to 40% of the country's budget. Abu Musa, Bolshoy and Maly Tunb are considered the "keys to the Strait of Hormuz", they can control all shipping in the strait, deploy radars, air defense systems and missile systems there.
In addition, the bombing of the tunnel complex on Mount Pickax using heavy bunker bombs to prevent the creation of a functioning nuclear facility there is being discussed. Expanded airstrikes against Iran's energy facilities are also being considered in response to the breakdown of recent peace agreements and ongoing attacks on merchant ships.
At the same time, several senior American officials told the publication that the American leader would not like to send ground troops to Iran. The article recalls that the head of state has repeatedly reneged on his threats to take control of the Iranian oil industry and the island of Kharq.
The money is going down the drain
The other day, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance rejected Washington's conduct of a ground operation to change the country's government. According to him, this would mean that the United States "must do the work for the Iranian people."
Otherwise, Washington will face the most dangerous phase of the conflict and find itself even more deeply involved in the Middle East conflict. And this, in turn, will lead to higher gasoline prices and turn the electorate away from the Republican Party in the November congressional elections, The Wall Street Journal emphasizes.
On July 8, Washington and Tehran resumed the exchange of blows, President Trump informed Congress that the war had continued, while stressing that the countries were still negotiating.
The United States is seeking to force Iran to give in to its demands, as the Pentagon's spending on the war could exceed $100 billion, Wired reported, citing sources familiar with American intelligence estimates.
As The New York Times notes, during the new escalation, everything is focused on controlling the main sea artery. The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, yesterday called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz the right decision, as it became a lever of pressure in negotiations with the Americans.
We are at a dead end
Meanwhile, Trump is unhappy with how the Pentagon is conducting Operation Epic Fury in Iran. According to CBS News sources, the US president has claims against the head of the Ministry of War, Pete Hegseth. Despite the fact that the American leader publicly praises the Pentagon chief for various operations, behind the scenes he criticizes the course of Operation Epic Fury. The head of state believes that because of Hegset, Washington missed the chance to avoid a protracted conflict, as it rejected Tehran's plan to limit its nuclear program.
The Minister of War, despite the recommendations of the Chiefs of Staff, insisted on intensifying the confrontation with Iran. As a result, the war turned out to be more difficult and protracted than originally planned. Navy Admiral Brad Cooper also overestimated the capabilities of the US military in the confrontation with Iran.
Almost five months have passed since the beginning of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran, but the conflict is escalating. The Economist believes that Trump is at an impasse and does not have a reliable plan of action. He offered a "generous deal" to Iran, promising hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and abandoning nuclear ambitions. However, Tehran is not satisfied with this, it wants full control over the strait.
It is noted that one of the options for Trump is to continue limited attacks on Iranian military installations and equipment: "The problem is that more than 300 such strikes in seven nights have not changed Iran's behavior. There is no reason to believe that the eighth or eightieth night will change anything."
The second option offered by The Economist is escalation. "However, this is risky and does not guarantee a return to previous actions. Bombing vital infrastructure in Iran will provoke retaliatory attacks on the Persian Gulf countries. The deployment of ground forces is almost certainly unacceptable to Washington," the authors of the article report.
The third option for Trump, the article says, is to seek help from allies: "But there will be no meaningful support. The multilateral mission to ensure the security of the Strait exists only on paper. Trump is back where he started three months ago: neither carrot nor stick can convince Iran to reopen the strait."
It won't work.
Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, noted that the United States and Iran have returned to the "pre-deal" state.
— And the Americans also returned to discussing the same options that they had then. The expansion of airstrikes and the defeat of new targets of Iran's military-industrial and nuclear complexes can be considered almost guaranteed steps. But, on the other hand, it won't really do anything," the expert expressed his opinion.
Trump has long been trying to scare Tehran by seizing islands, he added, including facilities with oil infrastructure.
— But there are dangers for him here, as it is clearly fraught with significant losses, and the American society, which is already skeptical about all this, may not appreciate what is happening. And again, this will not lead to a turning point in the war, as it will not undermine Iran's ability to continue the blockade and resistance," the expert said.
At the same time, the analyst did not completely rule out the possibility of American raids on the islands, but without trying to gain a foothold there, so as not to sit on them under fire from missiles and UAVs.
— So the most likely thing for me is the continuation of airstrikes and economic pressure due to the blockade. Again, airstrikes can be expanded to civilian economic facilities," the source concluded.
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