A place under the "umbrella": Lithuania wants to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory

The Lithuanian authorities are preparing to lift the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country. The initiative was supported by the President, the leaders of the largest parliamentary factions and the Ministry of Defense. Experts say that lifting the restrictions could lead to an uncontrolled escalation in the Baltic. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

The weak link and the gray area

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that the country's top officials agree on the need to lift the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country. He stated this after a meeting with the leaders of the Seimas, members of the government and leaders of all parliamentary factions.

The Lithuanian leader noted that the current constitution of the republic, which contains a ban, was adopted in other geopolitical conditions, and now the provisions of the document allegedly do not correspond to the rapidly deteriorating realities. "We cannot afford to be a weak link in the NATO deterrence system, to remain some kind of gray area, so we must delete this article," he said.

In turn, Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas noted that Lithuania remains practically the only NATO country that has banned the deployment of nuclear weapons on its own. "This does not give us the opportunity to fully use the alliance's defense potential, so I support the repeal of the relevant legislative provisions," he said, adding that nuclear forces can be used "both for defense and deterrence."

At the same time, Lithuanian officials say that the lifting of the ban should not be delayed, therefore, there is no question of holding a referendum, which will take a lot of time to prepare for. It is noted that the parliament's vote will be enough to change the constitution. "We have come to the conclusion that now is the moment when the Sejm and its chairman can assume the necessary leadership," Nauseda stressed.

Lithuanian legislation does allow deputies to independently amend the constitution. To make changes, at least 94 out of 141 members of Parliament must vote for them twice, with an interval of three months. The ruling coalition controls 79 seats, but the opposition Fatherland Union, which has 28 mandates, has already announced support for the initiative, meaning it is quite possible to gain the necessary number of votes.

On Friday, July 3, an amendment to amend the constitution was registered in the Seimas, and fifty deputies submitted a corresponding application. Parliament Speaker Juozas Olekas clarified that the issue of nuclear weapons has long been discussed in "narrow circles" of Lithuanian politicians.

With an eye on Finland

The immediate reason for the current discussions was the attempt of the Seimas in May to adopt a law on the port of Klaipeda. The deputies wanted to prescribe in the document the possibility of entering the country's sea waters for ships with nuclear weapons on board. The president then vetoed, explaining that the constitution prohibits this, and the main law of the country must be changed for appropriate decisions.

In addition, Finland became an example for Lithuania, which in June this year lifted the ban on the import, storage, manufacture and use of nuclear weapons. The relevant amendments were first voted on in the country's parliament, then approved by President Alexander Stubb. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, said at the time that Finland had been included in Russia's list of nuclear targets as a result.

At the same time, Lithuania emphasizes that they are only responding to Russia's actions. In Vilnius, it is noted that back in March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. In the spring of 2024, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko announced the arrival of equipment and ammunition. In May of this year, the two countries conducted joint nuclear exercises.

Recently, several publications have appeared in the Western press stating that the United States plans to withdraw part of its ground forces from Europe, but instead may deploy additional weapons of mass destruction on the continent. The Financial Times newspaper, citing its own sources, wrote that Poland and the Baltic states are showing interest in American dual-use aircraft.

Interestingly, this information was denied in Warsaw. The Polish Foreign Ministry said it had not demanded the deployment of American forces, and the relevant press articles allegedly did not convey the content of the conversations. But Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the information about the negotiations with Washington. "Discussions are underway… We are definitely not standing aside," he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron also reported on the intensification of the nuclear issue. He announced the expansion of the country's nuclear arsenal and promised to extend the "umbrella" to Paris' allies. "We must strengthen ourselves in the face of various threats and think through our deterrence strategy deep into the European continent," he announced at the French naval base of Ile Long.

Russian officials have not yet commented on the Lithuanian discussions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the legislative changes in Finland a concentrated confrontation. At the same time, the Russian Embassy in Helsinki noted that it sees no external signs of the country's preparations for the deployment of weapons, "although even a theoretical possibility will affect security in the Baltic-Arctic region."

What the experts say

Vsevolod Shimov, Adviser to the President of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, emphasizes that Lithuania considers this decision a response to Russia's actions.

— Of course, all this will contribute to an increase in general tension, but we must not forget that for now nuclear weapons remain mostly psychological. The real confrontation is conducted by other means. There is a drone war going on in Ukraine, and in the Baltic we are still talking about tension, but not about open conflict," he notes.

In turn, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, calls what is happening Lithuania's step towards escalation.

— Vilnius' decision will have the most negative impact on the country's security — it will become Russia's natural target, our strategic nuclear forces will be aimed at it. It should be understood that the republic is located in close proximity to the Kaliningrad region, so Moscow cannot ignore potential threats," the expert warns.